Phillies Acquire C J.T. Realmuto for 3 Players and Slot Money

zambonir 2019-02-11 19:48:19 UTC #161

The Yelich comparison is not insignificant. In 2017 he had a .852 OPS on the road, .757 at home. In 2018 it was .944 road and 1.061 home.

Now, that doesn't mean Realmuto's about to go all-star, but his career OPS is .848 road and .678 home. Last year it was .870 road .773 home. I don't think we need advanced analytics to see the potential there. His career OPS at CBP is still under. 800 but he's only played 28 games there.

Florida_Sunshine 2019-02-11 21:22:55 UTC #162

I know this surely will cause consternation on the boards, but after the aquisition of Realmuto, I wonder if the Phils will, or have, pulled out all stops for Machado or Harper. I am starting to think our new acquisitions have significantly changed the landscape of when Middleton said we will spend silly money. Machado really does not want to play 3rd, he wants to play SS. Our need is more at 3rd and definitely not at SS. Harper is a position of need but not overwhelming need. Just wondering, but have the Phils somewhat moved on to next year, and are looking at Arenado (a position of need) and Trout (only the best player in all of baseball that just may want to be here).

Andy, AT or AF posted a week or so ago about how many mega contracts this team can have in a couple years. Realmuto, Nola, Hoskins are all going to have pretty big pay days. Can you add two more to that, or just one? And if just one, I am thinking the Phils may have internally abandoned the bird in the hand philosophy and realized they have made huge changes to this team already. They may be thinking of only acquiring MM or Harper if only short term contract or one that is tradeable if they can bring in Trout or Arenado. Out of all the free agents now or upcoming, Arenado is the position of most need.

zambonir 2019-02-11 21:34:23 UTC #163

I'm not real worried. It seems to be a buyer's market. They haven't signed either player because there's been no reason to make a significantly large(r) offer. It also looks like Arenado won't hit the open market. And you can't make all your plans based on Trout, why, that would be like assuming you were going to sign Manny Machado this year three seasons ago!

I also don't believe Hoskins will ever sign a post-arbitration contract here. In fact Harper or Realmuto may be his replacement. And I don't think Realmuto will necessarily be that pricey (nor can we be sure he'll be re-signed).

We really haven't heard much, if anything about Machado's SS preference lately. Even the Yankees can't give him that for very long. He's still gonna take the money. But truth be told the Phillies could also make him their SS if they absolutely had to. Would just mean trading Hernandez instead of Franco.

LoneStarPhan 2019-02-11 21:40:27 UTC #164

The way I see it is that the Phillies need a thirdbaseman. If Machado doesn't want to play third, they don't make any concessions. Move on. I really am mixed on Machado . I'd love to see him playing third but there are multiple red flags suggesting trouble even before a signing. No matter how good a player is, if he doesn't want to play for you, it likely is not going to work out well. Of course, I have never met the man and they have, so I hope they know what they are doing and if they sign him, it will work out.

Jazzhead 2019-02-11 21:44:45 UTC #165

I think the Phils are effectively done, at least with respect to Machado and Harper. I think they will stay in the race for those two solely to keep them from signing with a team in the division, but so long as both sign with the Giants, or Yankees, or San Diego, or the White Sox, I think the Phils will let those deals occur and won't try to top or match them.

With Realmuto, Segura and Cutch, I think we are ready to move on and play ball. I don't see the long-term value of tying up our payroll with 7 to 10-year contracts for players who, let's face it, have never given me the impression they want to play in Philadelphia.

zambonir 2019-02-11 21:52:17 UTC #166

I don't understand why people think Harper or Machado "don't want to play" for the Phillies (AF also speculating about their personal happiness in another thread). Right now they don't want to play for anyone.

Heck, technically, Jean Segura and JT Realmuto didn't want to play for the Phillies. They had no say in the matter.

Would love to go to Vegas and place a bet with you on this one Jazzhead. They want the star, they have the money, getting Realmuto doesn't change anything just because he's an upgrade over Alfaro. The only thing that does is alleviate the need to make a second move in addition to Harper (i.e. they can just keep Franco) or Machado (they can afford to just go with the OFs they have now that there's more offense coming from C).

allentown 2019-02-11 22:05:24 UTC #167

The debate about how well Realmuto and Alvarez will do going forward is interesting, but how good/bad a trade this was will depending 90% upon how many innings Sixto can pitch during his 6-7 years of team control. If Sixto is healthy, stays healthy, and achieve close to the ceiling that everyone sees, then we got slaughtered in this trade. If Sixto bombs for health reasons, then we can win the trade. Over the past 7 months, we have learned how the Phillies really feel about a lot of their players and prospects. They totally soured on Crawford. The seem to have at least largely soured on Alfaro, and to at least an extent on Sixto, who previously was untouchable and now is just part of a deal to replace Alfaro. If we get Mannhy, rather than Harper, it likely says more about Franco than Harper vs Machado. We know from last off-season that Klentak cares almost not and all (and he should care quite a lot) about losing draft picks.

andyb 2019-02-11 22:05:39 UTC #168

I think it is safer to say that Harper and Machado don't want to play for less than $300 million. Clearly the Phillies did not blow them away with a $350 million to $400 million offer. That does not mean they are not the high offer on the table though or close to it. The high dollar figure (or trying to get as close to it as possible) is what is taking all the time.

zambonir 2019-02-11 22:18:50 UTC #169

Winning the trade is not the same thing as winning games, of course. To some extent the Phillies lost the Lidge and Lee trades long-term - they were still interested in bringing back Bourn or someone like him just a few years ago, and in Carrasco or someone like him right now - but the short-term rewards were worth it. If Sanchez wins Cy Youngs while the Phillies have a few parades, that's fine. If he does that and the Phillies don't do that we'll talk about what might have been on this board a lot I'm sure.

Austinfan 2019-02-11 23:11:19 UTC #170

And if Howard or Pivetta wins a Cy Young we won't care about Sanchez.
If we have five solid SPs, then Realmuto has more value than upgrading one of the starters.
Though I think what worried them about Sanchez was his size, he's velocity is more arm than leg based, so his injury woes were a red flag given how few pitches he's thrown.

It's always a gamble, but it also depends on what you have in the system, we have young catchers who are 3-4 years away other than Grullon and Knapp, but lots of young pitchers who are 1-2 years away, a few with top potential, backing up 6 legitimate ML SPs.

And this goes to Harper and Machado, we have Franco and Bohm who is either 2 years away or time to get a new director of scouting, we have Haseley and Moniak. So the value is the net gain per season, right now Harper is a big gain over Williams of last year, he would still be a gain 2-3 years from now but probably not to the same degree, same at 3B.
Machado at SS isn't a huge upgrade from Segura, relative to Franco at 3B, and if you move Segura to 2B, you reduce his value.

bigegypt0417 2019-02-11 23:21:58 UTC #171

Agreed. Everything you read says neither of the two players wants to sign first since the money will go up to the one that's left available.

andyb 2019-02-12 00:33:10 UTC #172

That is a pretty silly statement. Howard has 2 months in Low A of throwing really hard. He is nowhere near the prospect Sanchez is.

Regardless of anyone else, if Sanchez becomes a good starter we will definitely care. And Sanchez has a better shot of winning a Cy Young than Howard or Pivetta do.

baseballoldie 2019-02-12 01:03:28 UTC #173

How can you say Sanchez has a better chance to win a cy young than Howard or Pivetta?

allentown 2019-02-12 03:03:03 UTC #174

If he's healthy, he's better than either of them, although obviously farther away from majors. I've been skeptical that he's healthy.

LoneStarPhan 2019-02-12 05:08:11 UTC #175

Today I saw several pictures showing Realmuto working out at the complex. It is very encouraging to see him in camp early.

julio 2019-02-12 05:13:50 UTC #176

You did? Where? Links!?

zambonir 2019-02-12 05:38:57 UTC #177

andyb 2019-02-12 14:29:08 UTC #178

Yes, that is my argument - amended by the fact that Howard is even further away, has lesser command and has never gotten age/level appropriate hitters out so he has much to prove before one assumes he is going to win Cy Young. Now just saying Cy Young is ridiculous of course. Sanchez is the first number one starter prospect we have had in 15 years. The last one, Hamels, turned out really well but never amassed a bunch of Cy Youngs either.

Florida_Sunshine 2019-02-12 14:37:45 UTC #179

Andy,

I am 100% confident that AF was laughing at the whole comparison considering how far all 3 are away from contributing to the majors. The ONLY player that is a known value is Realmuto, and to a much lesser extent, Alfaro.

bigegypt0417 2019-02-12 15:06:24 UTC #180

the Phillies traded for the best catcher in baseball and had to give up a front line starting prospect...I don't know if I buy the idea they fell out of love with him because how he used to handle the offseason but the trade has some risk...unless realmuto continues to be an all-star for the next few seasons.