Phillies Acquire C J.T. Realmuto for 3 Players and Slot Money

BostonRoss 2019-02-11 01:21:58 UTC #141

I wasn't saying that Realmuto wouldn't regress. I cited BR's projection that he would be more like 2017, not 2018.

It's more about the greater variability in Alfaro's progression. Yes, the average 25 year old will improve, but with only one full year of MLB data, he hasn't established a level of performance yet. Many rookies regress substantially. I guess the way I would put it is that there is a lot higher probability that Alfaro's OPS is below .751 than Realmuto's is less than .785, even after you adjust those numbers for the ballpark effects.

allentown 2019-02-11 02:06:25 UTC #142

That's true. Carlos Ruiz had his second best year at age 31, regressed slightly at age 32 and then had his career year at age 33. He managed to put up 3.1 rWAR at age 35, followed by his only negative rWAR of his career at age 36.

Edit: Now that's truly bizarre. I quoted and replied to Florida Sunshine's latest post, which did not include Julio saying 'cheap'. I don't see a recent post in which Julio says that.

Edit again: there it is, Julio uses the word 'cheap' in the last sentence of the post he makes AFTER Florida Sunshine's post.

Edit--quote fixed. I think it had to do with the index of the quoted post, so I just removed it. pc

andyb 2019-02-11 04:47:44 UTC #143

The neutral projections say he is likely to regress after a career year. Every player of course is different. It is just the odds of all other players at similar ages and of similar skills. Believing any player will get better at age 28 or older is a losing game.

None of this says Realmuto is a bad player. He is a good catcher that has a good chance for another few really good years. He'll probably do that while getting a little worse each year on average.

andyb 2019-02-11 04:51:08 UTC #144

Not sure it would be a higher probability that Alfaro is less than his projection than Realmuto (adjusting for their new ballparks). It is the exact same probability. It is more likely that Alfaro falls 100 points than Realmuto. It is also more likely that Alfaro gains 100 points. That is how these types of projections work and how a player with more variability in his outcomes might develop.

zambonir 2019-02-11 06:43:37 UTC #145

To some extent we are really flying blind here though. While the reality of the age curve cannot be denied, clearly the Phillies, despite claiming that they were excited about Alfaro's development as a pitch-framer etc., were not completely sold him on him defensively, even if he does continue to develope offensively (which is still questionable given his K rate and BABIP).

And meanwhile, their spin on Realmuto is that he has not had any coaching or advanced analytics in Florida, ever, since they were apparently the Phillies ca. 2014 until now. So we'll see if that's worth anything.

Taudawg 2019-02-11 10:58:43 UTC #146

Alfaro had second highest BABIP in all of MLB. I think he's due for regression. Marlins park is also the worst home run hitters park by 2018 park factors.

Realmuto on the other hand, has progressively gotten better each of the last four years. His 2019 could be better than 2018 and then he has a new career year. Same thing with 2020. All of his BR historical comps had different trajectories. Some were good in their 20s and done by the 30s. Others were good in their late 20s, and sustained excellence until 33-34.

el-pietro 2019-02-11 12:05:06 UTC #147

The Ringers Ben Lingbergh mentioned something I don't think I've seen elsewhere right in the coda of the most recent Effectively Wild Podcast. Prior to this last season Alfaro was poor at pitch framing which has been cited as one of his strengths over Realmuto. The Phillies worked specifically on this with Alfaro last off season and he improved dramatically. There is the possiblity that they will be able to help Realmuto with this though he is older and it may be more difficult. There was an article on this during spring training last year on the Atheltic but I can't find it right now

bigegypt0417 2019-02-11 14:19:27 UTC #148

Realmuto had a career year?

He's been very consistent for the last 3 seasons while slowly getting betting. I think it's dishonest to look at realmuto and throw out that he's been good since his age 25 year. Why is there a likelihood he's regress? His numbers have been improving steadily over 3 seasons but in no means was last year a career year. Also, his numbers should trend even better now that he isn't playing half his games in that stadium.

Austinfan 2019-02-11 14:38:08 UTC #149

Some points:

1) If you pay $10M a year in FA, you're never going to win anything, those values are ex post based on teams that ended up with the "winner's curse" - and one reason offers have drastically declined the last two years - teams are now basing offers on expected value, not unbridled optimism, and I'd say ex ante prices are $7-8M per expected WAR.

2) There's not a lot of cheap WARs, the first couple years, most players are close to 0 WAR, for every Trout, there's a dozen Kingery's. By year three salaries start creeping up, and by 4-6 you're probably paying $4-6M a WAR. If you need 40 WAR, you have to average $5M a WAR, try that with 15 WAR at $10M.

3) Alfaro is not a good bet to improve, because he's not fundamentally sound as a hitter or defender, and he turns 26 this summer - at some point he is what he is, and for all we know, he'll be similar to Rupp, who put up .750 OPS at 27 and .716 at 28, or Joseph, .813 at 24 and ,721 at 25, offensively. Alfaro's tools will keep him in baseball longer, but he's got the same issues those two did, power without a clue. Pitchers watch film and attack their weaknesses.

4) Sanchez is high ceiling and high risk, which is a limited expected value. I'd bet on Howard, who is very inexperienced at 22 (23 in July), but has a much better body (6'3 205) for a high velocity pitcher and has made real strides in developing secondary pitches. Had Sanchez stayed healthy and started on a regular basis he'd be much further along, but 3 seasons, 217 total innings. It's not just durability, it's a lack of progress, even great stuff needs one or two 26 start seasons to develop a feel for pitching. Howard is also inexperienced, 37 IP at 19, 12 starts at 20 in college and 9 more in Williamsport for 115 IP, 23 starts last year (112 IP). This year they'll probably stretch him out and let him go 5-6 IP per start. He may beat Sanchez to the majors.

It's great to have a lot of high ceiling pitchers in the minors, but minor league pitchers never win major league games. So there's always a balance between win now, win later and win never. Realmuto should get a substantial CBP jump, He wasn't cheap, but the price wasn't unreasonable. We do have three kids in the majors throwing 95, and De Los Santos in AAA - so it wasn't like Sanchez was the key to the pitching staff the next couple years.

andyb 2019-02-11 15:13:18 UTC #150

Because he is a catcher and he is 28 and coming off his best season. All three of those are predictors of small regression on average. The logic of "this guy is different because we traded for him" is logic that is not grounded statistically.

flyers19rw 2019-02-11 15:18:36 UTC #151

When a hitter has 508 PA/467ABs and 179Ks with only 22BBs something is going on at the plate that is not good. Alfaro's been known for his power ability but the lack of discipline for a player who is going to be 26 this season is an issue. Maybe he'll be a late learner but perhaps its his game.

bigegypt0417 2019-02-11 15:27:35 UTC #152

I don't understand the premise since his numbers have been very consistent for the last 3 years and he's had small amounts of progress. He's not been overused or anything so why is he likely?

andyb 2019-02-11 15:31:35 UTC #153

Because statistically any catcher is more likely to regress a bit at that age. There is a good chance he'll improve a bit too. But statistically all 28 year old catchers as a group are not quite as good as all 27 year old catchers. Age 28 is a small regression (like 2%-5%), but it is still there. I don't know why this is so controversial. Assuming any player over 27 will be as good the next year is a losing game. Assuming your player is the only one that will not regress is just foolish.

bigegypt0417 2019-02-11 15:41:48 UTC #154

I don't disagree with that premise but I still don't see how last year was a career year...the thing about him has been his consistency...IMO.

Taudawg 2019-02-11 15:45:35 UTC #155

Fangraphs has some age related data regarding peaks, cliffs and such. I think one could use the info to support either side of this discussion. My take is we won't know how well JT ages until after it happens, but I suspect he's in for a great year in 2019. Even if he does take a 2-5% decline, his overall numbers will increase by more than that by playing outside Marlin's park. He's a better road hitter by 30 points and shows significantly more power.

allentown 2019-02-11 15:55:11 UTC #156

I think a reasonable hypothesis is that good athletes and good contact hitters who are catchers should age more gently, although injury can strike anybody. Ruiz aged very gently. Also, 28 as the age at which players start to decline is a very rough average and includes guys who weren't very good to begin with and guys who fail after the first MLB adjustment to their game, because they can't adapt their approach. In any case, a lot of catchers mature later than the average position player. Realmuto has done well enough long enough that we know he fits neither the 'never was all that good' nor the 'fails at first adjustment by the opposition'. He has been tested.

zambonir 2019-02-11 18:44:49 UTC #157

I mean, it's not controversial to say it was a career year. His best-ever OPS by a fair amount, his highest-ever WAR, peak HRs and power, though not OBP or BA. It is certainly a much better bet to think those number will dip rather than rise, in a vacuum. But with CBP and possibly new coaching tools, perhaps not.

The main thing about this trade is the Phillies wanted Realmuto. They didn't want Ramos or Grandal. They weren't looking to replace Alfaro actively. A guy they loved became available at a price they found reasonable, and they loved him more than what they had, so they adjusted their plan. Presumably had they wanted to they could have signed Ramos and traded this package for a pitcher. But this was all about Realmuto. They've wanted him for a while. And maybe they had a little non-buyer's remorse about Yelich.

bigegypt0417 2019-02-11 18:53:01 UTC #158

I guess when I think of a career year I think it's so far out of the realm of his previous performance...realmuto just seems to be getting better.

zambonir 2019-02-11 19:26:27 UTC #159

Just a benign statistical analysis term really. But I know what you mean, it can also be used to describe an average player who has one unusual single season that's not repeatable. As opposed to just a peak, where there's nowhere to go but down.

Chase Utley's "career year" (offensively) was age 28. So was Jimmy's. Neither of them got especially better after that (Jimmy not at all). But they were still good! (Very much so in Utley's case as his WAR continued to rise).

Howard's peak was age 27 though his offense ticked back up at 29.

It is not at all unreasonable to think Realmuto won't get any better but he's still a lot better than Alfaro. And we'll see how the change of team/stadium affects.

Taudawg 2019-02-11 19:35:22 UTC #160

I think JT's going to put up big numbers in 2019 - unless there is an injury. I'll take the over on .280 and 25hr. I think the our new data team did their homework on JT and Cutch and Segura. I'm sure the age/catcher curve is factored.

Ramos too many injuries...wouldn't trust him over 50% playing time. And Grandal is older and had a draft pick attached to him.