Phillies Acquire C J.T. Realmuto for 3 Players and Slot Money

[Florida_Sunshine]

I would think it is a safe bet that Realmuto has a very good, if not great, season.

[fish]

Yes, that is my argument - amended by the fact that Howard is even further away, has lesser command and has never gotten age/level appropriate hitters out so he has much to prove before one assumes he is going to win Cy Young.

Howard was 21 in A ball. That is plenty age appropriate. Sanchez is the better prospect, but it’s worth noting that, for all his stuff, Sánchez never put up the strikeouts that Howard has.

[Philsmania]

What number does Realmuto wear? He wore #11 with the Marlins but that's Rollins' number but they may be wary about giving it to another player, especially with Rollins' being in the HOF grey area.

[andyb]

Howard was 21 in A ball. That is plenty age appropriate

He turned 22 though. Late in year birthday. He was 2 years older and 1 level behind Sanchez. He also pitched less well in Lakewood than Sixto did in Clearwater. He was age appropriate for a prospect. Just not for a great prospect.

Howard also needs to show his body is capable of throwing upper 90s for more than a couple of months. We don't know that. He is almost as much of an injury risk as Sanchez. As for the strikeouts, Sanchez admittedly has gone with a simpler arsenal of basically throwing strikes with command of his fastball because it worked. His secondary pitches are a work in progress. But he has a much better walk rate with his approach and most scouts believe his strikeout rate will spike up as his other pitches progress.

This is where people go way too far in looking at Howard's performance which is nothing special so far. He was 2 years older than Sanchez and 1 level behind (and Sanchez is even more inexperienced as a pitcher). Howard's stuff makes him a prospect. Not his performance. Sanchez has both and youth on his side. AF talks about the two as if they are comparable or close to equal and they are simply not.

[LoneStarPhan]

Looks like Realmuto is wearing #10.

[LoneStarPhan]

Today I saw several pictures showing Realmuto working out at the complex. It is very encouraging to see him in camp early.

You did? Where? Links!?

I have found several Phillies fan related sites on Twitter and Facebook. There have been many pictures and video clips pistes since workouts started in Clearwater. I was impressed seeing players such as Hoskins, Nola, and now Realmuto already working before the official reporting date.

[julio]

I have found several Phillies fan related sites on Twitter and Facebook.

Ah, thanks, LSP. I tend to avoid most social media; I have a non-mainstream view of their value vs. their tendency to do damage...

Anyway, photos from Clearwater at this point are premature for my purposes. I'll be looking for images of Realmuto, Segura, and McCutchen in Phils uniform, in action. You can presumably figure out why...

[bigegypt0417]

Howard was 21 in A ball. That is plenty age appropriate

He is almost as much of an injury risk as Sanchez.

Impossible to say that since one has a documented history of injury...an elbow and the other doesn't.

Spencer howard is also 6'3 and has the body type to maintain that velocity...

[andyb]

Any pitcher that throws 100 is a big injury risk. Probably slightly more with a shorter pitcher but only slightly. The big thing is whether they can do that velocity over time and neither of them has really shown that. Example - Drew Anderson in the first full year back after his surgery hit 95-97 pretty regularly. As he got older he settled into more the 92-94 range. Any pitcher with a velocity increase needs to show they can sustain that over time (from injury and from settling back into a lower velocity). Sixto has shown the velocity for 3 years now. He still needs to prove he can stay healthy of course (like Howard).

[bigegypt0417]

Any pitcher that throws 100 is a big injury risk. Probably slightly more with a shorter pitcher but only slightly.

What I'm saying is sanchez is no longer a risk of injury...he has an actual issue with his elbow.

Howard has a starters body and as much as I agree he does carry risk...his is still an unknown.

[allentown]

What I'm saying is sanchez is no longer a risk of injury...he has an actual issue with his elbow.

And more to the point, he has yet to pitch competitively since sustaining the injury. He suffered 'collar bone' injury when he tried to return. He was then slated for AFL, but was withdrawn by Phillies. Big red flags, which is why I say more of an injury risk than Howard. I think Howard is ahead of Sixto in proximity to majors, because he is healthy and likely to move fast through the farm, while Sixto will have to be greatly restrained for at least a year.

I do agree that in terms of established pitching ability, that Sixto is clearly better than Howard and has a higher ceiling. I also agree that even with the injuries, he isn't as great a risk as Knapp was when we traded him to Cleveland, but then we all know how the Knapp story ended. I think Sixto, even with the injury risk, is still a top prospect and a risk well worth taking. I'm sorry he is no longer on our farm, but did not consider him to be our top prospect -- highest ceiling: yes, highest probability-weighted value: no.

I agree with AndyB that there is a lot of risk in getting a pitching prospect from low-A to the majors. Howard is risky. I well remember the old 4-aces from a decade- (or more) Phillies low-A starting rotation. When I see that Law lists Howard as our overall top prospect... it does raise doubt in my mind about where our farm really ranks. I think relatively weak top 5, very deep top 30 or top 40.

[Austinfan]

All pitchers are risky, at any point in their career.

Sanchez is more risky, due to both his stature and his two injuries (elbow and collarbone) in one year.
He also has yet to start 20 games in a season or pitch 100 innings - that matters because a full load exposes an injury prone pitcher, i.e., better information about risk. We also don't know if Sanchez can develop secondary pitches, he just hasn't had to and he hasn't thrown a lot of innings. Once a pitcher gets over 92, until 99-100 or so, secondary pitches matter more than incremental velocity, see Garcia who got hit around throwing 97 on a regular basis. Or Tirado and Cordero, who threw 100 without command.

Medina will probably level out at 93-95, but has a potential plus changeup and plus slider, that's why he's highly rated.

"down the stretch, Howard was electric. Over his last 11 games (including playoffs) he put up a 62.1 IP 40 H 1.59 ERA 16 BB 82 K line. It all was topped with a no hitter in the first round of the SAL playoffs. His fastball was consistently sitting in the mid 90s, and in the no hitter he was reportedly up to 100. His fastball sits 93-96, t100 with good life (arm-side run) and deception. He has an above-average slider, and his changeup showed plus potential."

My "sleeper" -

Brown, Benjamin 6’6 230 (33-17) [19]
Brown has seen his stuff step forward this year. His fastball will touch up to 94, and he has good control of a 3 pitch arsenal. He is still very projectable. He will need to improve his secondary pitches and will likely head to Williamsport next season.

Point is losing Sanchez isn't the end of the world, had he stayed healthy, started 20+ games and threw 100+ innings flashing a potential plus slider and 3rd pitch, he'd have remained untouchable. But now he's just as risky as other top pitching prospects. Though less so than Morales. Gowdy, Pipkin or Brown, who are "projection" prospects at this point.

[phillychuck]

All of the folks commenting on Sanchez' lack of a secondary pitch have not apparently seen or read about him rolling out a "70" (on the scouts' 20-80 scale) slider in Clearwater.

I wish him well. And I wish Realmuto continued good health and a long list of all-star appearances in red pinstripes.

[andyb]

With Sanchez and secondary pitches it has been as much about him not needing that pitch yet to get results. He is just in a different league as a prospect than Howard who is just as risky (not just in injury but in things like command) because he is older and farther away and has had nowhere near the quality of performance. Having him is great. It is no substitute for losing Sanchez though.

[julio]

All of the folks commenting on Sanchez' lack of a secondary pitch have not apparently seen or read about him rolling out a "70" (on the scouts' 20-80 scale) slider in Clearwater.

The thing is, his rollout of the impressive slider was followed in relatively short order by the rollout of his elbow problem. One has to wonder if the two might just have been related.

[zambonir]

Well, it took longer than usual, but this topic finally turned into being about something else (if still related because of Sixto. Pretty sure we already had the whole Howard debate in another thread though).

If Sixto does become an ace and the Phillies also have to dish out a large FA contract to a veteran pitcher in 2021 because none of the current group shows any signs of being a consistent #1-2, that will hurt. But a lot of steps between now and then, and they definitely have the depth to expect/hope that at least one guy hits. Maybe it will be someone with elite stuff like Howard or maybe it will be a surprise. Heck, Nola, who nobody ever really called "our best pitching prospect since Cole Hamels," got there.

Who really was our best pitching prospect since Hamels before Sixto? Drabek, briefly? May?

[andyb]

Who really was our best pitching prospect since Hamels before Sixto? Drabek, briefly? May?

Carrasco or Nola probably. Neither was seen as a number one as a prospect but Carrasco was seen as having a pretty high ceiling (number 2?) and Nola was seen as a pretty safe #3 starter with #2 upside. Drabek briefly had that luster but was never healthy enough for a sustained period to be considered as good as Carrasco or Nola.

[Austinfan]

Floyd was also highly rated, as was May,
Attrition is rapid between Lakewood (pitcher's park), Clearwater (neutral) and Reading (hitter's park).
If you can make it through a season in Reading you have a good shot at the Show.

Lakewood (starters with stuff and results, at least 10 starts)
2006: Maloney, Carrasco and Outman.
2009: Knapp and May
2010: Colvin, Pettibone, Cosart, May
2016: Kilome, Tavares, Gilbert, SD, Tirado
2017: Medina, Falter, Llovera, Suarez, Sanchez
2018: Stewart, Jones, Howard, Parkinson, Brown, Russo

Clearwater
2006: Kendrick, Happ
2007: Outman, Carrasco
2008: Savery
2010: Aumont, May
2011: Pettibone, May, Cosart
2012: Biddle, Morgan'
2015: Leiter, Rios, Imhof
2016: El Garcia, Watson, Eshelman
2017: Tavares, Kilome, E Garcia, Irvin, Tirado, SD, Romero
2018: Llovera, Medina, Falter, MiIls, Seabold, Russo

Reading:
2006: Gonzalez, Segovia, Mathieson, Happ
2007: Maloney, Kendrick
2008: Carrasco, Bastardo
2009: Drabek
2010: Worley
2011: Rosenberg (Hyatt, Cloyd pitched well, but were never seen as prospects)
2012: May, Rodriquez, Pettibone, Buchanan
2013: Biddle
2015: Lively, Eflin, Nola
2016: Pivetta, Leiter
2017: Anderson, Irvin
2018: Kilome, Romero, Viza, Suarez, Seabold

[allentown]

Who really was our best pitching prospect since Hamels before Sixto? Drabek, briefly? May?

Nola by a wide margin. We sort of bombed on Biddle, who is now a successful major leaguer, and Drabek also gave us trade value, so we've done REALLY well on the #1 draft picks, including those relatively late in the round, on #1 picks spent on pitchers. Compare that to how well we've done with #1s spent on position players and weep. Then remember our stated organizational philosophy of growing our own pitchers.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't still consider Biddle a success, relative to expectations. But more of one than Appel or Drabek!

I think that was just bad luck the way his injuries and service time played out, I don't necessarily think the Phillies should have stashed him on the roster for as long as the Braves did (even the Pirates didn't keep him). Would have meant losing someone else maybe. And it's not like they are short on relievers at the moment.