Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

zambonir 2021-02-23 00:54:04 UTC #61

While a big part of me would be happy to see the Phillies stand their ground - I still believe sending a message about domestic violence, and centering the feelings of victims and women in general is more important than giving these guys a second chance when the second chance is pretty much the default in our society - the Herrera/Phillies phan in me would love to see him thrive and start 100 games. I'd also like to see Mickey Moniak become Rookie of the Year in 2021. I wouldn't bet a penny on either.

andyb 2021-02-23 19:27:10 UTC #62

Gelb article on Kingery. Looks like he is coming into camp lighter after bulking up too much (and that not helping post COVID).

Here is my question to ponder - will the deadened ball make speed and defense more important? Not sure MLB teams knew about this at the beginning of winter, but I also could see MLB promising to make the ball behave closer to the way it did in years past. And if more balls are in play (as in not home runs), defense will be important. The Phillies might have told Kingery to work on his speed and defense because that is what they needed out of him.

This is not just Kingery. It could also factor into other bench spots. Is Chatham better defensively than Kingery or Segura at SS? Is Quinn's defense needed in part because of Cutch's lack of range? If the DH happens do we want to get one of Bohm, Hoskins, or Cutch off the field in place of a better defensive bat? How good is Miller defensively in the OF?

The Phillies were not a good defensive team in 2020 and going into 2021 they have not improved. It is the same lineup. Maybe Cutch is moving better, but everyone is a year older and most starters except Bohm are old enough where their defense is more likely to regress rather than improve. CF is a little different but the same players return. The deader baseball may hurt the Phillies more than other teams. Hopefully the bullpen can miss more bats to compensate.

BostonRoss 2021-02-24 04:47:30 UTC #63

I'm happy to see him referred to as "Phillies CF Scott Kingery." He's the option with the most upside at that position.

I'm not sure Quinn's defense is that good. Sometimes we think fast players must be good on defense, but I haven't seen much on defense from Quinn yet (though he's better than McCutchen). We don't really have a large sample size yet, though.

zambonir 2021-02-24 06:15:24 UTC #64

Yeah I think what andy called "defense" was really speed and range. Quinn certainly has those things, it's his judgment (and possibly his mechanics) that don't seem to be at the same level. Haseley is really the guy they need to take a step forward (defensive and/or offensively), I assume Miller has the other LF starts locked down, along with maybe 1 start a week in the IF.

andyb 2021-02-24 14:43:19 UTC #65

Not sure where the defense reference was. Maybe the Herrera comment where his speed in 2018 and 2019 was noticeably lower but where that relates to defense is also borne out in the defensive stats (dWAR, various zone measurements). Herrera started out grading as an above average CF. He slipped to average after a few years and was below average in 2018 and 2019. Whether he can recover is probably related to his speed because he did show the instincts to be above average before and he should not theoretically be too old for the position.

Where are the other CF candidates defensively? First we must admit that the data on all of them is sketchy. I think the Phillies rank them Kingery>Quinn>Herrera. Quinn probably has the potential to be the best of the three but he makes too many mistakes and takes too many chances. But he is faster than Kingery and has a better arm so the tools are there. Both Kingery and Quinn probably are average defensive CFs these days.

Haseley is a little different in that he does not have the speed you want in CF but has good defensive instincts in general. This leads to his being above average in the corners (either as his arm seems decent even though the scouting reports did not like it) and below average in CF. There have been CFs with below average speed and good instincts. Jim Edmonds for one. He was probably not as good as his media reputation because of how they played up the diving catches that Andruw Jones would get easily, but he was still a solid above average in CF. Could Haseley become that? Sure. But it is hard to bet on that and I am not sure his offense is good enough to justify playing a lot of CF with what is now below average defense.

I still believe in the power of numbers and youth here. And in midseason trades if necessary. Through platooning and defensive substitutions we should be able to cobble together 2 WAR total in CF. Just not sure whether it will be Kingery, Quinn, Haseley, Herrera, or someone else. They all have flaws, but whomever is playing best, will get the most playing time. It is really important to get Kingery going because he is probably the best potential offensive player here (on realistic projections). If more than one of the players play well it is a good problem to have.

el-pietro 2021-02-24 14:45:35 UTC #66

This post refers to Jake Odorrozzi rumors:

Seems unlikely given where the budget is at right now. Heyman is a Boras mouth piece right? If so then probably just using the Phillies to drum up interest but this would be a significant boost to the rotation. You'd be hoping to add a couple of wins, with potential upside of 3-4 if things break right. I'd be happy with him on a 1-2 year deal.
https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1364579830352781317

Taudawg 2021-02-24 16:03:06 UTC #67

I'm not completely down on Herrera's defense, I suppose the same way I'm not completely down on his offense. This story regarding his defensive metrics decline, published mid-season 2018, makes some interesting points. Being out of shape, and possibly having other personal problems, are not mentioned - strictly numbers. Not taking a stance, just sharing another perspective.

David_Criss 2021-02-24 16:09:55 UTC #68

As el-pietro points out Heyman is a Boras mouth piece. He isn't getting 3/45 neither is Bradley. I could be wrong, but I just don't see it in this market. Odorizzi would be a huge innings eater addition to the rotation. There would have to be a significant salary trade to make this happen - could that be why McCutchen rumors popped up recently so Boras can tell other bidders that the Phillies are getting ready to swoop in?

andyb 2021-02-24 16:15:14 UTC #69

Definitely an interesting theory because we kind of know from lots of little things (team metrics, shift data, eye test) that the Kapler regime really was clueless on defensive positioning. I do come back to that crude statcast measurement of speed though. The drop in defense directly corresponded with the drop in sprint speed. He was never that fast, but SBs dropped from 25 to 8 to 5. And the eye test really looked like he was 10 pounds heavier.

I am always willing to blame the Kapler analytics team because they were pretty bad. I just think it was more coincidental than anything else. As I said, Herrera is young enough to get back in shape and recover some of that quickness. Heck, that is what Kingery is trying to do this year. I just don't anticipate success for Herrera after the layoff. It is hard to be bad or non existent for 3 years and then recover to what you were once before.

tom81 2021-02-24 16:35:10 UTC #70

I agree, and while I don't think Herrera is Ted Williams I do think he could get back to being a 2 WAR CF.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willite01.shtml

Taudawg 2021-02-24 16:35:20 UTC #71

Not that I'm comparing Odubel with Josh Hamilton or Eric Davis...Josh Hamilton was completely out of professional baseball for three years and Eric Davis missed two years, plus bad for two before that and returned to being very good in his mid 30s. The chances are slim, but Odubel had great bat to ball skills. If he's in better shape than he was when he was good (15-17), that only improves his long odds. While I am down on him as a person, I am somewhat down on Kingery, Haseley and Quinn as players. I'm glad others have more optimism about that grouping or at least one of the three.

zambonir 2021-02-24 19:05:22 UTC #72

Odorizzi seems more like basic due diligence, or hoping his number drops. Of course the way the team has been acting (and, in the stories about Harper yesterday, talking) it is once again dumb that they are not willing to exceed to CBT.

In theory they could make it work if they traded Velasquez, then they could worry about it again at the deadline if they're buyers.

andyb 2021-02-24 19:33:30 UTC #73

Cot's has us $11.5 million under the threshold. Miller included but not Kintzler and Watson who are the most likely non roster players to make the roster. $3 million each.

We could not add one of the $3 million arms, trade a $4 million starter (Velazquez or Anderson) and have $12 million in AAV below the threshold to play with. Not saying we should or would do this, but if Odirizzi is forced to accept a 1 year deal at $10 million or less I suppose it is possible.

David_Criss 2021-02-24 19:42:59 UTC #74

Wonder if he would accept a 1 year $10 million deal with 2 vesting options based on incentives met in the $15 million range.

zambonir 2021-02-24 19:46:55 UTC #75

Yeah the number in my mind was more like $8 million. No more than 10.

This is really all "checking in" might have meant (in addition to Boras just putting it out there):

"Hi Scott, we've only got $12 million to play with and that's before adding one of our NRI relievers. Let us know if you'll take eight." It doesn't mean serious interest or a high likelihood of doing it.

flyers19rw 2021-02-24 23:22:34 UTC #76

Swapping out VV frees up $4M.

andyb 2021-02-24 23:34:41 UTC #77

Spring Training TV schedule finally announced. 12 games. Potentially a few more on MLB.TV from other teams.

Taudawg 2021-02-25 00:31:04 UTC #78

Would anyone want VV at 4mil? PTBNL? I'd like to think Dombrowski is cooking up some spring trades.

zambonir 2021-02-25 01:42:04 UTC #79

Yeah it would just be a salary dump for the most part, especially since VV is going to be a FA anyway. Maybe a couple of fringe bodies.

And like andy says Kintzler already adds $3 million, and the same again if Watson makes it. And you have to leave some wiggle room below the CBT for contingencies (including call-ups, both in general and for doubleheaders/spot starts/COVID). Even if they traded VV and Odirizzi took $10 million they'd pretty much have to be willing to go over at the deadline... unless they're out of it, of course.

allentown 2021-02-25 04:00:02 UTC #80

VV is the sort of high strike-out pitcher they've acquired several times this off-season. He has too high a walk rate, but not as high as some of the other acquisitions, nor as high an ERA, in what was an off year for him, except for the 12+Ks/9 which was a step up. Did the Phillies have VV doing something different last season to boost the Ks?