Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

el-pietro 2021-02-22 16:33:30 UTC #41

Interesting that he has Herrera on the roster and Velasquez in the pen.

andyb 2021-02-22 17:29:02 UTC #42

I have read in a couple places that he looks like he is the best shape of the last few years. It could be just standard "Spring Training Talk" where one consciously says good things about all the players. I think Girardi was one of the quotes.

FWIW Hoskins apparently looks good too. TJ surgery was not on his throwing arm, so having him on opening day is very possible.

andyb 2021-02-22 17:38:12 UTC #43

Luis Garcia was invited to mini camp also bringing the player count to 73. Morales is the one prospect that is not there that I expected. I don't think there is any chance to make the team. He is just the type of top prospect that the major league staff should keep an eye on. If they ever made him a closer he could be in the majors by late Summer like Seranthony a few years ago.

zambonir 2021-02-22 18:28:04 UTC #44

I wonder if Morales has visa issues, as some of the announced/invited players do.

Zolecki also has Howard in the minors, it does seem to be trending that way if the two vets are good enough and VV isn't traded.

Zolecki also put Herrera on his roster prediction months ago just as a what if, but what he actually wrote this time is a lot less definitive. He also lists Kingery as an infielder, which I guess he would be if Herrera, Quinn and Haseley all make the team. But I think it's more likely they either go with a four-man bench or actually carry a back-up SS as the fifth guy, even though Miller and Kingery can both theoretically play the position. Which is to say I think if Herrera set spring training on fire they would either option Haseley or move on from Quinn (but I don't think either thing is likely).

The name that jumps out is Herrera, who has not played for the Phillies since his May 2019 arrest for simple assault of his girlfriend. Herrera is in the team’s minicamp, which is this spring’s version of Minor League camp. It affords him an opportunity to open eyes. If he gets a chance to play in Grapefruit League games and if he plays well, he could work his way onto the roster. If not, some combination of Haseley, Kingery and Quinn, who is out of options, will see playing time in center field. Non-roster invitee Matt Joyce is a veteran in camp. Mickey Moniak got his first taste of the big leagues last fall, but he slides behind the others on the depth chart.

It would be great if Herrera really was a different player both physically and mentally. Zolecki's roster also requires three 40-man spots, though one would be Hale.

Taudawg 2021-02-22 19:16:45 UTC #45

I think they are going to use a 5 man bench, and Segura will be the backup SS.

Looking at Herrera's instagram account (the latest of 3 accounts he's had) - I think it is certain he is in the best shape of his life. He has been working out at DBC fitness for a while (about a year from what I can gather). DBC is a household name among star athletes. Dwayne Wade, LeBron James and Von Miller are clients.

zambonir 2021-02-22 19:42:26 UTC #46

It will be interesting to see. Being in great physical condition doesn't necessarily mean he can rediscover the baseball skills he seemed to lose, especially after two years of dormancy. Though I know some said his decline in 2018 was due to poor conditioning.

I still don't think he's going to get enough playing time to truly show anything. Even if he's treated like a major leaguer that's going to be the case - would be hard to get more than six or eight starts. My belief is still that this is the Phillies fulfilling their minimum obligation to the CBA, and that they don't want the sort of PR storm we're now seeing with the Yankees and German (who wasn't even arrested. But unlike Herrera, he was still a good player, remains on the 40 and is in major league camp, thus the more intense scrutiny).

andyb 2021-02-22 20:23:33 UTC #47

I can't imagine that Herrera would be that much better than Kingery or Haseley/Quinn that they would give him a job right out of Spring Training. Even if he hit .400. But if he played well and then went down to LHV for a few weeks and played well I would consider it.

The 40-man roster spot is a cost and telling Herrera to prove himself in the minors for a few weeks is a good way to justify that cost. Or provide time for another spot to open up because of injury.

David_Criss 2021-02-22 20:35:26 UTC #48

I really wanted to see a full year of McCutchen when he signed two-years ago. He could get traded. Quinn is only a pinch runner imo a this time.

tom81 2021-02-22 20:39:52 UTC #49

We open up with 13 games with the Braves and Mets, Girardi is on record saying they need a good start. If Girardi thinks Herrera is one of their 5 best OFs at the end of spring training I bet he lobbies to include him on the opening day roster.

zambonir 2021-02-22 20:43:42 UTC #50

I agree, but the narrative somehow took a turn towards "invited to major league camp" and "competing for a job" even though neither thing is strictly true.

I imagine if and when he does get a spring training start, he'll also do another media appearance.

He's a bit of a Catch-22 in any case - they are paying him all that money, so if he's a major upgrade who can help the team win in 2021, you'd certainly want that, but there's really no way to establish that (nor do I think it will the case). And if he's just a marginal upgrade, you don't really want him taking away playing time from three younger players, all of whom are at a crossroads this season too.

If Girardi does think he's one of the 5 best OFs, absolutely. But I don't think that's any more likely than him deciding Jankowski - who may be the best defensive bench option - or Moniak are.

The one scenario no one really expects - Herrera hits .400 in spring training and .350 in AAA, gets called up in June, wins the starting job, plays great and has his 2021 option picked up.

Cutch, like Segura, is untradeable. I think they also still value his leadership, much as we know how that often goes. Hopefully he can play reasonably well.

And Quinn is more than just a pinch-runner. He's a 5th OF. Could Herrera be that too? Sure. But if they're both bad hitters Quinn is likely to produce more total bases from infield singles and steals.

andyb 2021-02-22 20:44:58 UTC #51

I can't imagine he'll be that much better though. We have 700 plate appearances of mediocre Herrera in 2018 and 2019 (total WAR -0.3). Both Quinn and Haseley are more valuable than that because of their baserunning and defense. The chances of Herrera being dramatically better are pretty small.

And if it is a close call for the last roster spot then hopefully Dombrowski tells Girardi that this would cost him a reliever through the lost 40-man spot in July. Managers can see the big picture too.

andyb 2021-02-22 20:47:11 UTC #52

Only untradeable with their complete salary. Cutch is actually at the top of the list of Phillies players that might be dealt in July if the team does poorly. If we picked up $15 million of Cutch's salary today I imagine he would be very tradeable to a team that needed a DH with a good OBP.

zambonir 2021-02-22 20:59:45 UTC #53

Sure but David seemed to be implying you could trade Cutch to free up a spot for Herrera. If the Phillies are sellers in July that's a whole other story, they'd also presumably trade Neris, Bradley and both of the new starters (though if we're not contending, some of those guys presumably didn't work out).

flyers19rw 2021-02-22 22:17:44 UTC #54

Let me throw this out there. For his first three seasons here, Herrera put up stats that got him to be an AS. Kapler was hired and Herrera’s performance fell off of a cliff. Coincidence?

zambonir 2021-02-22 22:29:32 UTC #55

So bring back Mackanin? Maybe he just liked playing for a Spanish-speaking manager.

He also had the best two months of his career under Kapler. He was on his way to a second all-star berth and MVP consideration.

You could also just as easily speculate that once the Phillies gave him that contract he got lazy.

I think the one identifiable issue is both the front office and the coaching staff did a terrible job with the outfield defense in 2018, and he never recovered from that.

Taudawg 2021-02-22 22:34:40 UTC #56

I think people overestimate Odubel's bad period. He was good 2015-2017. Then comes 2018. It was only the final 45 games or so that were bad, and they were really bad, enough the whole year looked bad. A 787 OPS through first 92 games of 2018, and he probably should have been an All-Star. So 45 games in 2018 and 39 games to start 2019 - a stretch of 84 games to decide he is washed up.

*When I defend Odubel here, please always remember, I am defending Odubel the player and not the person.

allentown 2021-02-22 23:01:00 UTC #57

Same for me, plus I'm also supporting equitable treatment, not a situation where Odubel gets career death while those as bad or worse get significantly lesser punishment or even a wrist slap.

zambonir 2021-02-22 23:01:33 UTC #58

Well, if you dismiss the last 45 you have to dismiss the first 45, because he was not especially good in June or July of 2018 either. Whether you take that season as a whole (.730 OPS) or use the All-Star break as you did (.787 first-half, .622 second-half, 52 games), he was floundering, and there's no reason to think it was going to stop. Or that he would have continued playing regularly in 2019 - he'd already been sitting down some before the arrest.

It's just that if we're telling a redemption story, we might assume that part of his decline as a player was related to him being a mess of a human being - out of shape, not mentally sharp, and with serious emotional issues (as opposed to what just appeared to be a quirky personality). So if he can and has fixed those things, one can hope.

But the thing is he still got worse every season. Even 2016 was a hair lower OPS+ and BA than 2015, though he improved in other areas. And his defense was no longer acceptable in CF.

In the end I don't think the Phillies would take a moral stand if Odubel was a great player. But just being a good or slightly above-average player won't be enough for them to take the hit, and more likely he's just an average/replacement level player. So might be Haseley or Kingery but the Phillies have a much greater need to see them play.

andyb 2021-02-22 23:10:33 UTC #59

His defense was bad for all of 2018 though. It is why the 730 OPS year (not awful) resulted in only 0.2 WAR. His sprint speed was way down too as if he had gotten out of shape. For comparison his sprint speed in his good years was about what McCutchen was last year (where McCutchen post-surgery was down considerably from 2019. In both 2018 and 2019 Herrera was down considerably from his good years (and way below post-surgery Cutch).

If he is in better shape and/or healthier then great. But attributing a bad season to one bad streak is just not right. It continued the next year and in neither year were the baserunning or defensive issues resolved. Based on the data, he really has aged out of a CF defensive role and then consequently his offense must be judged against corner OF competition like Miller.

David_Criss 2021-02-22 23:10:35 UTC #60

The Phillies are paying Herrera $10 million regardless this year. If he can be a spark plug for the offense, then let him play for his paycheck. If he has a great Spring and/or first couple months of the season and you want to trade him for something then you can do that. If he is awful then he doesn't make the team and the Phillies sill pay $10 million. If Herrera wants to continue to have a MLB career after this year, he knows he has to be professional and play well.

I will never excuse him for what he did and will never pretend to know why his girlfriend didn't press charges or why she is still with him. None of us were in that hotel room. Why is Antonio Brown celebrated and brought to NE and then to Tampa for Brady and cheered? Why is Tyreik Hill a hero in Kansas City? Those were the two Super Bowl teams less than a month ago. Chapman and Urias are applauded in MLB.

If Herrera was out blaming everybody else, including his victims, his coaches, his team and ownership, etc. ala Brown, then I wouldn't dare give him a second chance. We haven't heard him say one thing other than to apologize and to agree to go to counseling. Hopefully this was a huge wake up call for him as a man and as a player.

That being said, I think he deserves an opportunity to prove that he has learned from this mistake and show that he will never repeat it again because there is no strike 3. That is priority number 1. Priority number 2 is to prove he can be a good teammate and player.