Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[Les229]

I've had it witrh Velasquez. How many more games must the Phils lose before they realize, that in spite of his arm, he just can't master it? Cut him loose and move on..

[phillychuck]

Why do people hammer Velasquez like they do? He has been a league average pitcher during his tenure with the Phils. 6.4 fWAR. It almost sounds personal.

He is what he is, a guy with great stuff who can't locate it consistently and pitches to about a 4.50 ERA as a result. That's not worthless.

[gmwannabe]

i think people remember that first game against the Cubs where he was tremendous. He might have, wrongly, been put on a pedestal as a Cy Young candidate after that game. With his above average stuff, it just hasn't worked out yet. but who knows. I'm sure the light has clicked on with some older pitchers in this league before. hopefully it will with him. his arm is too good to be let go.
gm

[andyb]

Well, Appell got a $6.35 million bonus and has a Stanford degree so it might not be that tough to get a real job.

I always figured he'd give it another shot at some point. Clearly his stuff had diminished because of various injuries by the time he got to the Phillies. Though some of those injuries were probably due to tinkering with his mechanics to generate more movement.

Hopefully he is healthy and the Phillies are smarter with development now. He is definitely worth giving one more shot. The team will need a promising arm to disappoint us next year after Velasquez leaves....

[BostonRoss]

I don’t think Velazquez is worthless. But his value is not commensurate with his stuff, and it’s getting to the point where it’s not commensurate with his salary.

[flyers19rw]

It's not just that most of his starts are bombs that see him giving away leads, its the shortness of them which puts a strain on the BP. It's a rare start when he makes it through the lineup twice.

[tom81]

I think VV's stuff will play up in the long reliever / tandem starter role. He won't need to go through a lineup more than twice. He may exceed the value of his salary if used properly.

[andyb]

But his value is not commensurate with his stuff, and it’s getting to the point where it’s not commensurate with his salary.

Well, $4 million this year is his salary and that is what it cost to get a 4th/5th starter veteran arm. That is below the major league average salary and his salary has been far less until this year. So he HAS been worth the money so far in his career. We also don't know if he'll be worth it or not this year. Theoretically the veteran knowledge he has added could make him better. Same reason we are hoping on Chase Anderson for a similar price.

People have a negative view of VV because they expected more. They also tend to give others with similar stats the benefit of the doubt. Zach Eflin was not any better until last year when he made his curveball a real pitch. One could argue that Velasquez has been equally mishandled throughout his career. We just seem to blame him more than most others because we see more potential.

The $4 million this year is a good risk. I really don't have too much confidence that Anderson or Moore or even Howard (tell me the last time he actually pitched well and what level it was at?) will be better than Velasquez. They all could be. They all might not be better. Options that are not too expensive are good to have. Maybe the less lively ball will be the thing that lets Velasquez thrive with his stuff in the strike zone.

[bigegypt0417]

Kingery and Romero optioned to the minors.

https://twitter.com/ToddZolecki/status/1376205072095449094?s=19

[zambonir]

Wow. That also bodes well for MIller's health status I assume. And Herrera?

Another thing that probably wouldn't have happened under the last GM.

They are really not worried about lefthanded relief though. Coonrod, Kintzler, VV are gonna have to get some out.

The best/worst thing about Velasquez at this point is he's about to be a free agent. If the Phillies didn't have him, given how little they seem to be counting on Howard, they likely would have signed another Moore/Anderson type for that 6th starter depth, and for similar money. It's also the worst thing because he has no trade value as a change-of scenery candidate, and if the light does come on this year in a new role the Phillies won't really get much benefit from it either. It seems obvious they shouldn't have tendered him, but they still could have released him for very little $ if they wanted to (just 30 days pay, I believe).

[Austinfan]

Good. They're not letting Kingery's contract get in the way of his development, he needs those AAA bats he never got to get his swing back and improve his batting eye.

Haseley, Moniak and Kingery are likely to be up soon than later, but it's not a bad thing to get them everyday ABs and work on their hitting skills, rather than sit on the bench. If Haseley stays, it should be to start - you can always sign cheap veterans to get splinters on the bench.

Appell got the Eflin treatment in Houston and it screwed him up, so what if you have a killer sinker, we're gonna have you throw 4 seamers b/c that's what analytics say you should do. Hopefully, he can regain his sinker and get back to the pitcher who got picked #1.

[zambonir]

Other moves: Bethancourt released. Jankowski and Duran sent to minor league camp, Marchan optioned there as well.

Pretty sure with Kingery gone, and barring other moves, Haseley and Herrera have both made the team. Bench is Knapp, Miller, Joyce, Quinn, and whoever's not the starting LHB in CF. But they still have to clear spots for both Joyce and Herrera.

Kingery obviously needs the reset, but it also buys them time. Otherwise they were either gonna have to option Haseley or not bring up Herrera. At the start of spring training we thought Quinn's roster spot was in danger (or he was a trade candidate) but that's likely not the case now.

[California_Dreamin]

I don't believe the distaste for VV is personal, I simply believe that its because every time he fails it reminds all of us of the Giles deal, one we had looked on with eager anticipation and excitement. Giles was a dominating reliever for the Phillies and we had every reason he would bring back a major and profitable haul. It was also going to be Klentak's first major trade as a Phillie GM and we wanted with all our hearts to believe he would be successful, part of the new breed of GM, young, analytical and progressive.

Of course it didn't hurt that he dominated in what I believe was his second start, against the Pares, when he struck out 16 in 8 innings of pitching. While Giles has had a modicum of success and young Mr. Arauz was a part time starting 2nd baseman in Boston, the Phillies have pretty much flamed out in the deal, save for an occasional decent start by VV. Didn't help that Appel, who was added to the deal late, not only failed but prematurely left the game, an emotional wreck.

Not sure about all of you but this failed deal was when those tiny little voices inside of my head said that Klentak was going to fail as a GM. Sure, you can say that VV is league average but A] Giles was way more than that as a closer with the Phils and B] many of us were excitedly following Arauz's assent through the system with anticipation and sure enough, he has not only made it to the big leagues, but as at least a part time starter.

Every time VV pitches and fails its a reminder of a deal that we needed to be successful and instead was pretty much a disappointment. It sure would be poetic justice if Appel came back with abandon and rescued this deal. Certainly VV has to be hoping this happens.

[zambonir]

It was still a good trade. The Phillies simply had no need for a closer at that time, and what's more, actively didn't want to have a good one. And yet they still won too many games in 2016!

At the end of the day it's also about the value of a mediocre starter vs. the value of an above-average reliever. Giles has put up just 4.0 WAR since the trade, hindered along the way by the usual injuries and up/down performance (and temper tantrums, which he had in Philly too). Velasquez has given us 4.3.

Obviously to be a great trade, Vinny had to do more, or one of the other pitchers had to pan out, but it was still a good deal regardless. At least the Derek Fisher thing didn't turn out to be any more regrettable!

I'm sure Vince does not give Mark Appel or the circumstances of that trade a second thought. Mark Appel could win the Cy Young and that still won't help Vince avoid a pay cut next year, or keep him in Philadelphia presumably.

[BostonRoss]

But his value is not commensurate with his stuff, and it’s getting to the point where it’s not commensurate with his salary.

Well, $4 million this year is his salary and that is what it cost to get a 4th/5th starter veteran arm. That is below the major league average salary and his salary has been far less until this year. So he HAS been worth the money so far in his career. We also don't know if he'll be worth it or not this year. Theoretically the veteran knowledge he has added could make him better. Same reason we are hoping on Chase Anderson for a similar price.

People have a negative view of VV because they expected more. They also tend to give others with similar stats the benefit of the doubt. Zach Eflin was not any better until last year when he made his curveball a real pitch. One could argue that Velasquez has been equally mishandled throughout his career. We just seem to blame him more than most others because we see more potential.

The $4 million this year is a good risk. I really don't have too much confidence that Anderson or Moore or even Howard (tell me the last time he actually pitched well and what level it was at?) will be better than Velasquez. They all could be. They all might not be better. Options that are not too expensive are good to have. Maybe the less lively ball will be the thing that lets Velasquez thrive with his stuff in the strike zone.

I didn't say that he isn't worth keeping and did not say he hasn't been worth having over his career so far. But he is reaching the point where he is not worth his salary. Unless he does much better than he has done to date, his salary will be going down next year, as zambonir noted. That means he is trending toward not being worth his salary.

I certainly hope our 5th (actually 6th) starter is making less than the major league average. I'm sure that's true for nearly every team.

Of course we don't know what he will be worth this year. That's true of almost everybody. As phillychuck said, he is what he is. There is no reason to expect that he will suddenly improve a lot, at least not in a starting role.

But he should stay on the team, as a RP and as SP insurance, unless we could get equal or better value in a trade.

[andyb]

That means he is trending toward not being worth his salary.

I guess that statement is not a surprise. Every major league player entering free agency is in that situation. Now if he was $8 million in arbitration then he would probably not be worth it, though of course if he was $8 million in arbitration he would have been better in the past.

In general though, players in their arbitration year are worth paying a bit more for because of the potential for improvement at a younger age, along with the year to year control (as in no long term deals or option years).

[andyb]

Pretty sure with Kingery gone, and barring other moves, Haseley and Herrera have both made the team.

Not quite so sure about that. What if they bring Chatham or Maton back? The team really does not need 3 center-fielders. It could happen, but the bench is also a little too left-handed if we keep both Haseley and Herrera. I think the team might use the last couple of exhibition games to make the Herrera choice. Maybe they finesse it for a short while with the bonus 40-man spot, but that will pass quickly.

[zambonir]

I certainly hope our 5th (actually 6th) starter is making less than the major league average. I'm sure that's true for nearly every team.

Well, that should be true for the Phillies too, his name is Spencer Howard. Or, alternately, Spencer Howard should be our #4 and we would probably still be paying Chase Anderson $4 million to be a 6th starter/long man. Over the years the Phillies have had Chan Ho Park, John Lannan (who made that kind of money) and Ben Lively and David Buchanan (who didn't) in such a role, as well as homegrown players who actually did stick in the rotation for longer (or even rise above #5).

I think we're missing the big picture here which is that this is all about the unique return from COVID and a 60-game season. Not only do they expect to need 8 starters more than usual - and 8 starters is pretty usual! - but they are picking Hale and Velasquez over Watson and Romero specifically to eat bullpen innings.

Not quite so sure about that. What if they bring Chatham or Maton back? The team really does not need 3 center-fielders. It could happen, but the bench is also a little too left-handed if we keep both Haseley and Herrera. I think the team might use the last couple of exhibition games to make the Herrera choice. Maybe they finesse it for a short while with the bonus 40-man spot, but that will pass quickly.

Thus "barring other moves." But are those guys even really ready to play? Granted when they moved them out of camp it was because they'd decided Kingery was going to be more of an IF.

If they don't take Herrera, I bet Torreyes actually makes the team.

[gmwannabe]

speaking of that trade, CD, what ever happened to that kid you would have liked included in that trade? Instead of Appel, this kid was an OF (Fisher?) Didi he ever make it?
gm

[BostonRoss]

Oops, meant to type major league average, in response to andyb’s comment.

[Mod's note: Since you caught this, I'm going to delete my comment, and do a little cleanup. - J]