Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

Yeah it's a big region and a lot of folks either don't care, would go because they have been anti-mask etc. all along, or are just vaccinated. But it's still pretty much split 50-50 there. I know a lot of Rangers fans who are just disgusted with the team (as well as the government). And even Fort Worth didn't vote Republican this year (usually they are the only urban area in the state that does).

Texas is pretty open for vaccinations at this point, 16 up and with conditions and anyone over 50 I think.

I'll do just about anything once vaccinated, it's just that we're still supposed to mask and distance for other people's sake, and recognize that, and the teams/venues need to as well.

But anyway, I would have thought the Phillies could move 8,000 seats more quickly, but that also probably shows how much advance sales are dependent on group sales and business season ticket holders, which are probably not in play right now.

[donaldorc]

Nola really looking good against the Yankees. One hit and 9 strikeouts after six inning. Gregorius with a 2-run homerun. Phillies 4-0.

[zambonir]

Taking that step from warming up/working on things to being ready, huh?

[BostonRoss]

I'm thinking the same way. I became eligible for the vaccine today but will probably have to wait for an appointment. Assuming I'm fully vaccinated in May, I won't want to go to a crowded ballpark for a while. Of course, with capacity limits in place, I suspect tickets at Fenway will be hard to come by for a while. The Phillies show up July 9-11. In the minors, maybe I can see Reading in New Hampshire July 20-25 and LV in Worcester in September.

[LoneStarPhan]

Really a nice outing for Nola against the Yankees. Only one hit and no walks in his six innings. However, I'm also pleased with the bullpen. Three scoreless innings and only one more hit and no walks. Kinzler got two of the outs in the seventh and allowed a single to Stanton (he had both the Yankee hits). Joe then brought Watson in to face Bruce, and he got him to fly out on the first pitch. I felt Joe was working on establishing regular season roles with that move. Neris looked strong in the eight, and De Los Santos had the 1-2-3 ninth with 2 Ks. He has looked strong this spring and I can see him coming up sometime during the season.

I have pretty much come to the conclusion that I'd make Quinn the starting centerfielder to begin the season. I have seen enough of the inconsistencies that I remember from Herrera although he did get a walk in this last game with the Yankees, and he has shown some positives this spring. I'd like to see him play and do extremely well in AAA for fifty games or so before I'd make the moves to add him to the 40 and to the active roster. Sadly, the AAA season is off for a month. Moniak also needs to be playing at AAA and Haseley might need some game action before coming back on the active roster.

[zambonir]

Anyone who doesn't make the team is basically going to extended spring training is all, except it will be in Allentown. Hopefully they will at least have enough players that the coaches aren't playing. They're also going to play other teams if possible, not sure if that just means Moosic or if there are other possibilities a bit further away.

So you want to make the guy who put up 0 WAR and .576 OPS last year, and generally hasn't hit right-handed pitching well his whole career, the starting CF? You still have to take Herrera in that scenario, and as the LHB he still gets the larger # of starts. So then it's just a question of whether Haseley can take that spot instead, and when.

[tom81]

So you want to make the guy who put up 0 WAR and .576 OPS last year, and generally hasn't hit right-handed pitching well his whole career, the starting CF?

Yes, assuming he continues to out play the competition the rest of spring training. His OPS is .065 higher than the next best choice and his more important OBP is .144 higher. And Girardi says that to properly evaluate someone with OPS you should add in SB-CS, which greatly plays into Quinn's skills. Quinn did put up 0 WAR and .576 OPS last year but in only 116 PAs, really small sample size in a very weird year. In fact Quinn's entire career is SSS as he only has 450 career PAs.

You still have to take Herrera in that scenario, and as the LHB he still gets the larger # of starts.

I still take Herrera in that scenario, he is the next best OF and we are trying to win this year. If Quinn is the starting CF he gets the larger # of starts, if they platoon then Herrera gets the larger # of starts.

I would start Quinn provided he continues outplaying the competition and keep him on a short leash while having Herrera get regular time in all three OF spots. With McCutchen's age and Harper's back they both could use regular rest.

[andyb]

As I said, I start with a platoon in CF because nobody has won the job outright. Against RHP that is Herrera over Haseley at the moment. Against LHP that is Quinn over Kingery right now.

Let's also not say Quinn is a "576 OPS player". Yes that was last year in very limited time in a weird situation. It is not like Quinn is old yet, so his career .669 OPS in about 60% of a season's playing time (and 0.8 WAR) is a better proxy for what he is as a player. Not great, but also not awful if he is deployed at least 50% of the time on his platoon advantage side against RHP. Kingery is the same way. I don't consider him the .511 OPS player he was last season. He might also not be the 788 OPS player he was in 2019 because there was second half regression that year as the league adjusted. Right now it is probably fair to also consider him by his career which is a 677 OPS or similar to Quinn.

Quinn is playing better than Kingery now and Kingery is needed to backup the infield. Hence the Herrera/Quinn platoon decision. All to be reevaluated in a month when Haseley is healthy and we have had some playing time from everyone to learn more.

[BostonRoss]

I really wanted Kingery to win the CF job, but he certainly hasn't earned it. I don't put a lot of stick in either spring training numbers or 2020 stats (especially for someone who had COVID). But the coaching staff must have some idea whether Kingery needs major work to get fixed. If he doesn't, then I'd still keep him in the mix for CF. It's not like the other options are big upgrades, and they could send him down when Haseley is ready. If the coaches think Kingery does need to be fixed, he should be sent down, even though there are no games for over a month.

I think I'd like to see Quinn on the team, but mainly in a bench role with an occasional CF start. I think Herrera should be in the mix unless they keep Jankowski, who doesn't have a great offensive track record. Personally, I wouldn't rule out giving McCutchen the occasional CF start. He is not good defensively, but it's not like any of the others is Garry Maddox. If they keep Joyce, he could play LF.

There aren't any good options, just chances to get lucky.

[andyb]

Athletic notes:

Matt Gelb: J.T. Realmuto is expected to play in his first... - The Athletic

JT playing tonight. Eflin on track. Miller uncertain for opening day.

Given the pitching uncertainty with Velasquez and Howard and others I would think there is a fair chance they break camp with Miller on the IL and go with a shorter bench till he is healthy (which might be within a week). Extra pitchers the first time around the rotation is not a bad thing. Might get you an extra week to decide on someone like Hale since the 9th bullpen pitcher would likely be a 40-man roster player already.

[David_Criss]

With Howard and VV hurting, they need Hale. Article says 40 are left in camp. Guessing Nova and Rondon are released tomorrow or they could be optioned to AAA. Would they accept? Looking more and more like VV, Howard and perhaps Miller join Haseley to begin the season on the IL or DL. Bethancourt, Mathis and Duran aren't making the team with JT coming back.

A big worry is Miller. If he has to start on the IL or DL, the Phillies are way short on infield help. Kingery has to start at AAA and play everyday. He has to get his confidence back and fix his swing. He is no good as a utility guy at this point. With Chatham cut and a 40-man cut possibility, that leaves Torreyes and Williams as the utility options and yet another 40 man issue.

[zambonir]

LSP was clearly saying Quinn should start though, not be in a platoon, by saying Herrera needs 50 games in AAA. That would leave us with Kingery and no LHB as the only CF off the bench in the short-term, and the same CF combo as last year in the long-term (Quinn was the starter then too, however slightly).

I like Quinn on the roster. Definitely don't want to trade him. If he makes the most of his playing time when the games count and doesn't get hurt, all the better. But 116 PAs last year and his whole career (however abbreviated that also is) still tells us more than one spring training, and he's a much worse players from the side of the plate that gets the most ABs.

No matter how you slice it the problem remains that nobody's good enough, including in the field.

So long as Kingery is struggling and expected to play the infield Quinn's job is safe. He's not ever going to play LF though, we've got both MIller and (presumably) Joyce to spell Cutch. If only either of them could manage CF. We already know they want no part of putting Cutch or Harper there. They didn't even want to use Cutch there when he was younger and healthier.

[andyb]

If Kingery were playing better I think Quinn's roster spot would be in danger because the only situation where you want Quinn to start is likely against LHP until he proves he is better from the other side. Your other CF options are left-handed in Herrera and Haseley. While Herrera has been good enough for a full time role in the past, it is harder to say that today.

As of now though, you want Quinn as a starter against LHP and a pinch runner/hitter off the bench in other games. It actually might be a role where he could put up a 700+ OPS in 250-300 AB and steal 30 bases. That could be pretty valuable for mostly a bench player.

[zambonir]

These things always seem to have a way of working out, and for now they almost certainly have. With Miller out Kingery's definitely not going to AAA (which I don't think he was anyway, especially considering it doesn't exist), and if Miller gets further hung up and they don't make another move, they won't even have to make room for Haseley. And Quinn has certainly shown enough that I don't think you take Joyce over him on the bench if it eventally comes to that, though if you option Herrera or Haseley you also don't have to make that decision.

In some ways the real question mark in the line-up offensively is Cutch. If he can play as much as he wants to, and produce, you are set with that top-of-the-order bat, including some power, and can bury your CF in the 8 spot. Having a C and a SS who can hit certainly helps. In a perfect world Quinn is a lead-off hitter, Kingery is a #2 and Herrera is the #3 he was in his all-star year. Can one of them get back to that?

This is a bake-off that will probably continue right until July 31, unless someone ends the debate. By then Moniak could be in the conversation, along with trade options.

[andyb]

More roster sorting:

Phillies remove 3 more pitchers from spring training roster

No surprises there. They can always bring Rosso back as the extra pitcher if they want to go with a short bench. Mitchell seems the kind of guy you want in July that probably does not have better options than sticking around at the alternate site. Ynoa has been less good in the Spring than Mitchell.

Apparently Haseley might play tomorrow according to some Girardi comments. His health might force some decisions with both Herrera and Quinn but also potentially Joyce.

Tomorrow is opt out day for Watson, Kintzler, and I think Rondon. Then over the weekend they have a decision on $100K retention bonuses for players that do not opt out but would be at the alternate site. In addition to the 3 above this applies to Joyce, Mathis, and Nova (not to Jankowski who does not have the 6 years of service time). Feliz has not played recently enough to get that bonus (and apparently he just got to camp in the past week so he is likely not going anywhere).

[David_Criss]

Kingery, Quinn, Realmuto and Toreyes all starting tonight. Still no Miller, Hasely or Joyce.

[andyb]

Sunday's game is on ESPN+ and then I think 5 of their first 6 games in the regular season are on either ESPN+, ESPN, or FS1. For those of us not in Philly who are undecided about the MLB.TV package...

For tonight (not on TV unfortunately), a small bonus might be a look at Erik Miller. Apparently he was hurt early in camp when he might have gotten a handful of outings in Spring games but is healthy now (though at the back end of the bench where he does not pitch if the starter goes long and no other relievers implode in their inning).

Edit - Haseley confirmed starting in CF tomorrow. Available tonight as a backup too.
https://twitter.com/destiny_lugardo/status/1374451274138087429

[zambonir]

It'd be kind of funny if we do just end up with the same CF tandem as last year. Going into camp Kingery looked like the favorite and early in camp it was Herrera. I feel like things cooled around Herrera not just because of his performance, but when not everyone in the clubhouse seemed willing to embrace him, or even be diplomatic. In any case it's possible that after all this, the Phillies will just be relieved he didn't force the issue (and also relieved that Haseley could still be ready). Or they may be ready to take him, certainly he'd go to Allentown (if not, they may as well release him).

[LoneStarPhan]

No radio or TV tonight, as far as I can determine. Looks like Phillies trail 7-2 going into the bottom of the 4th. Wheeler lifted with one out in the third, pitches a 1-2-3 fourth inning with two Ks. Phillies with two hits, home runs: JT and Quinn.

[andyb]

Note that JT is catching also, not at DH. Looks like he can be ready for opening day though Knapp probably plays a lot the first couple of weeks.