Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[andyb]

It would only be natural to look at the waiver wire before final cuts. There are many more minor league deals out there this season because of the pandemic. They might like Joyce, but they also might think there are 20 other guys like him who could be had for near the minor league minimum.

One of the concerns with Miller has got to be the lack of an impact left-handed pinch hitter. That would also be Joyce's role. And maybe Haseley. So if they are all hurt, it is reasonable to think they don't want to go into the season with a right-handed heavy lineup with Quinn and Knapp being the left-handed pinch hitting options. If Quinn makes the team it is more likely because of his right-handed hitting (as the short end of a platoon where he has 770/617 splits against LH/RH pitching) and his defense and baserunning.

Left-handed hitting without Miller and Joyce and Haseley is a legit roster problem.

[zambonir]

Left-handed hitting without Miller and Joyce and Haseley is a legit roster problem.

Slightly less so if Herrera is the CF, especially if Kingery gets more than just pure platoon starts. With everyone healthy, Kingery and Quinn as the RH bench bats not ideal either (if you're trying to play bullpen match-ups or get a HR).

No doubt they need Miller to be back sooner rather than later. And of course it's true combing the waiver wire is just normal behavior. If Joyce is hurt he just bought himself a major league roster spot though, at least for now. For sure if both are out they could pick someone up.

That story also discusses Velasquez and says it's still basically trade him, long man, or starter. Just doesn't sound like they are trying to "teach" him how to be a situational or higher-leverage reliever at all, and would still rather get the trade return than use him in that role. All probably moot in any case.

[andyb]

Right now it looks like Herrera gets most of the starts in CF though. I am just looking at the bench and seeing Knapp, Kingery, and Quinn and thinking that bench really needs a someone else that is a left-handed offensive threat. So if Miller and Joyce are both hurt, they are going to get someone.

Actually if Joyce is not ready for the opening day roster, I don't think they elevate him to put him on the IL. I think they give him some money to rehab and postpone his opt out. Then get some other non-roster left-handed bat for the major league roster and potentially replace that person with Joyce when he is healthy.

[David_Criss]

Matt Joyce is starting today, at Dh, but he is playing tonight.

[zambonir]

Oh I was thinking they were obligated to put him on the major league DL but that only applies to guys on the 40 I guess?

It still doesn't seem clear that Herrera is the guy, let alone gets 80% of the starts (vs. 50, or vs. the bake-off continuing at the major league level). But time will tell.

[andyb]

Though I guess if he is healthy enough to DH tonight, in 2 weeks his injury is unlikely to be a concern unless he aggravates it. His top role on the club is really late inning pinch hitter. Kind of the Matt Stairs role with less power.

Hopefully the decision is made on merit and not health.

And a little good news on the injury front:
https://twitter.com/ToddZolecki/status/1373003813213323273

Realmuto, Haseley, and Marchan all hitting. Realmuto should DH this week. Of course Haseley and Marchan need to get where they can run, but this is progress and still 2 weeks until opening day.

[zambonir]

Well, so much for Vince. Sounds like they still think Eflin will make his first start, he might just be 5th in the turn to buy him more time. But given they finally have a lefty would make sense to put Moore third anyway, barring any other considerations.

So, Vince Velasquez is also injured. It's an oblique, Joe Girardi said. That means Eflin, Velasquez and Howard are all down right now. Team hopes Eflin and Howard can throw bullpens Sunday. Who is the fifth starter? Well …

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) March 19, 2021

[andyb]

They would need the 5th starter April 6th or 7th (if they have Nola take his second turn early because of the off day after opening day). Still plenty of time to get one of three healthy. And you would have a 40-man secondary option in Medina if you did not want to reach for Nova and a 40-man slot quite yet. Rosso potentially also though unclear if they are stretching him out at all.

Depth is important. Yet another reason to not make 40-man moves right away if you have options and the non roster player is not clearly better. We'll learn more around the 24th about their intentions with some of the non roster players.

Edit - Saturday's game does not look like it will resolve much. Didi played so back from concussion protocol. Quinn 1-3 with a SB and 1 K. Kingery 1-3 with 2 Ks. Moore gave up 2 runs but was not awful. Brogdon walked 3 and got pulled before his inning was up. Alvarado continues to dominate.

If I had to guess we are looking at a Herrera and Quinn CF platoon on opening day absent any new acquisitions. Kingery is just not doing anywhere near enough to be more than the utility guy, and if Miller is hurt they probably need him more in the infield. Starters we just need to hope they get healthy.

[zambonir]

Actually if Joyce is not ready for the opening day roster, I don't think they elevate him to put him on the IL. I think they give him some money to rehab and postpone his opt out. Then get some other non-roster left-handed bat for the major league roster and potentially replace that person with Joyce when he is healthy.

Pretty sure Joyce doesn't even have an opt-out, just a standard retention bonus for players who finished last year in on a 40. Kintzler and Watson probably get that too but the opt-out comes first (so in theory they could even negotiate a bigger bonus to waive their opt-out but it seems like none of that is going to matter. I just assume Rondon is gone, or he accepts his demotion).

At this point it seems like the only suspense would be if Haseley is ready ahead of time, unless they either seriously consider demoting Kingery (but if so wouldn't you want Chatham or Maton back in major league camp) or are still not 100% sure about Herrera. If Herrera stays, making Kingery the utility guy and no Haseley pretty much already ended the CF contest, so then the only issue is whether you plan to stash Haseley in AAA in order to keep Quinn or let Quinn go, assuming he even has trade value (if he does, it will be lower in early April, but keeping him in case of injuries until you can't might also be worth more than his trade value anyway. Much like Altherr a couple of years ago).

[bkeich]

I would think Haseley has a pretty long “rehab” in front of him. By then I would assume some position player gets hurt and opens up the spot for him. Since in a way he would be displacing Kingery, any position but catcher or first base with an injury and their is a spot for Haseley.

[andyb]

A big issue will be 40-man spots. Right now we are looking at a roster that needs 4 more spots under most scenarios at a minimum. Herrera, Joyce, Kintzler, and Watson. And this is potentially a roster that also has Quinn on it and Velasquez on the IL.

Candidates: Llovera, Hale, Dohy, Sanchez. Then probably Velasquez and Quinn via trade (though trading Quinn might open up the need for a 5th spot). Maybe you think about Chatham or Jones or even Rosso, but there are really no easy cuts as everyone except Hale could turn into a useful long term (most likely bullpen) piece. If there are questions about Miller's health and Kingery's bat then you really can't do Chatham. Velasquez and Quinn are too valuable to let go for nothing. Velasquez is probably tradeable. Quinn certainly is but 4 years of control with him are pretty valuable when you have no other proven CFs at the moment (and Herrera is unlikely to be worth his option next year so he is merely a 1-year sunk cost option).

I would seriously consider options that require fewer than 4 40-man moves even if they are not optimal in terms of producing the best roster in April. They might be optimal in producing the best June roster once we have several injuries we don't know about yet.

[zambonir]

I just think they're going for it at this point. If you can't help now and you don't currently project as a future starter, you're done. Hale still probably sneaks through waivers - it's literally the story of his career - and if not there's always another David Hale. Sanchez is a fringe avoid-the-Rule-5 acquisition made by a previous regime. Maybe they regret losing Dohy and Llovera, maybe not, but it's also possible one of them gets through, or can at least be traded.

They may surprise us yet with a Quinn or VV deal. Slow-playing Haseley's rehab also doesn't hurt obviously. VV is still here - in Hale's role - so long as he is healthy I think.

[bkeich]

It still surprises me that the increase in the ML roster from 25 to 26 didn’t include 1-2 spots in the 40 man. I have said this before, but I always think of it not as a 40 man, but instead of a 15 man reserve / taxi squad (now 14) and I am surprised the owners allowed themselves to lose that one reserve spot, but obviously the players would want to keep it down. Maybe if there was a minimum salary to be on that taxi squad, something (comparatively) trivial, like 100K, then they could add a slot or two.

I always thought it would be smart of ML baseball to have a 1-2 slot game time call up. With corporate planes it would be easy to have a guy as your 3rd catcher or utility that you could call up at any time and inactivate a position player for the day to gangle short term injuries. If he doesn’t get activated he stays in LHV and plays.

[zambonir]

Well, the taxi squad players don't have to be on the 40, that's where you put guys like Nova, Mathis, Jankowski, Torreyes, not guys like Chatham or Dohy. And guys like Quinn and Hale still have to make the 26 anyway, or they're gone. It's really not that big deal, I'm sure various options will be discussed in the CBA talks, but the simplest solution is to develop and construct your roster more efficiently. And when you've been a bad team and a declining minor league system for 3 years, obviously that's not gonna be the case. The Phillies are also unique this year because of Herrera.

[David_Criss]

Looking at the number of Spring Training plate appearances, it is obvious Girardi has given everyone a fair shot. Yet the same questions remain 6-weeks later regarding the bench and CF.

Williams (34) – does have a .382 OBP, at this point looks like a better utility option than Kingery
Herrera (33) – slipping this week, OBP is only .242 and still no walks
Kingery (33) – only 4 hits and 14 strikeouts – ready to see him every day at AAA
Torreyes (32) - .281 OBP
Hall (29) - Bowa loves him, will start 1B at AAA, but limited to 1B/LF
Quinn (28) - .393 OBP, but 9 strikeouts
Jankowski (26) – never hit at the big league level, has .346 OBP and is the best OF glove in camp
Joyce (26) – still hurt, will he begin in extended spring training?, certainly will be signed if released
Matthis (26) .200 OBP is higher than Knapp – with Marchan hurt, and Realmuto yet to appear, this is worrying me as they will need a backup catcher and would it be better for Realmuto to stay an extra couple weeks in the warm weather when the season starts?????

Same with pitchers. Neris has looked great. Everyone else for the most part has looked really good, too. Hoping they didn’t rush Brogdon back – the three-walks yesterday was a little worrisome. Do they lose a 40-man spot for Watson with Romero and Alvarado? Velasquez is “hurt”.
Here’s hoping for something great to happen this week and answer the questions, otherwise there has to be a trade for a CFer, right?

[andyb]

I would not put too much stock in the backup and AAA options like Williams having as many at bats as the people more likely to make the team. The Spring roster is smaller this year so the backups have much more opportunity for regular playing time. In a normal Spring training there would have been a few more utility options that would have split the playing time that guys like Williams are getting while at the same time the starters and guys like Kingery would continue to get the same amount of playing time.

They definitely have balanced the playing time of all the CF candidates. I suppose they could look to flip Velasquez for another CF candidate, but my gut says they roll with what they have which probably starts with a Herrera/Quinn platoon and Kingery as the primary middle infield backup. Then reevaluate when Haseley is ready.

[zambonir]

Where would they even find a CF, let alone for Velasquez? If there's a move there it will be in July.

I know it's kind of like the saying about quarterbacks and goalies, if you have four, you don't have one, but all four of those players are acceptable platoon options who bring other, different kinds of value (Herrera, the fantasy of returning to form while getting value for his $, Quinn, still great off the bench if you can keep him, Kinger, utility player, Haseley, still developing). The line-up is good enough to carry a shaky bat in CF if they aren't actively costing us run in the field. If they do upgrade the spot down the line it will probably be for a glove not a bat.

If they've decided they are cool with Herrera and want to find out for sure what he has, may as well just stash Haseley in LV (whether on rehab or option) and give it 2-3 weeks. If Odubel doesn't have it, you move on, and then you haven't lost Quinn.

[Austinfan]

I don't think they put much weight on ST stats, Girardi dismissed the first half of spring training as getting your conditioning and timing down.

I think it's more how players "look," especially ones with track records for good or evil.

[zambonir]

I'm sure a lot of you got the tickets email for the opening home series today. Seems the combination of COVID shyness and a 4th place team can't even sell out at 20%. Will be real curious to see what the Rangers draw for their opener at 100%.

I certainly hope to see a game in May or June myself, once vaccinated and travelling. I lost a lot of good road games from last year's schedule (Seattle, Texas where I have friends and family).

[andyb]

It is Texas. I think they come close to selling out. New stadium too. Then crowds die down quickly as the curious and defiant have got their first game in.

I think things probably get back to 60%-80% of normal by the second half of the season if we get herd immunity. There will be a minority that just don't want to risk anything. Personally I think I wait till around July to try. Still need to get vaccinated as I am not 65 yet. Even after that though I think I give it a month or two to get the country up to 60%-70% vaccinated.