Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

I don't think they were ever really trying to trade Vince, or seriously considering him for the bullpen. With Kintzler and Watson likely to make the team and Neris, Bradley and Alvarado the closer candidates he just ends up as the last or second-to-last guy (behind Brogdon) anyway. If anything he was just gonna replace Hale as the long man, which would have turned into spot starter soon enough. Now that injuries are a concern (and with Howard's status also removing him from a similar conversation) they will just start stretching him out if Eflin actually does go on the DL.

Otherwise, they really should trade him, he's simply not gonna be a $4 million reliever for the Phillies or anyone.

[David_Criss]

They absolutely want him in the pen. If not, they simply would have non tenured him when they had the opportunity.

[zambonir]

Hardly, had they known for sure he was going to be a reliever I think he would have been traded or non-tendered, but we didn't even have a front office then. More importantly, when they had to tender him he was still our fifth starter (if not the fourth), and our owner was talking about slashing payroll, so the interim GM had little choice but to keep him. It was still another two months before they signed anyone else (besides NRIs).

[Taudawg]

Agreed, I think they had to tender him at the time. Hindsight maybe they don't but we don't get rewrites. They could put him on waivers and I'd bet there is a taker out there. However, he's here at the moment and I think we should see what kind of reliever he can be. If he has any sort of success this year, he's another guy on a one year deal that would become very tradable in July.

[zambonir]

He'd certainly get claimed on waivers. I'm sure you could also trade him for some team's completely unknown 2020 draft pick even - as we gave up for Coonrod. But his value was greater to the Phillies as a fringe starter than a fringe reliever before, and it is even more so now. The scenario where he learns to become an effective reliever or is even given the chance to get meaningful outs really doesn't exist (and why would you trade him mid-season if that happened?). Maybe it did back when it looked like he could be the third-best pitcher in the bullpen just because the rest of them stunk.

As a long man he could possibly appear another time on his normal throwing day, and still essentially stay as an emergency starter.

A week ago converting him made sense. For true spot starts, a call-up might make sense. But now that we already have two injuries it might not. If Eflin actually does go on the DL and Howard doesn't, we may even see Howard in that long man role (since Vince would be in the rotation).

[Taudawg]

(and why would you trade him mid-season if that happened?

Well, if the Phillies have fallen out of the race, you trade everyone (of value) who is on a one year deal.

We have a 5 almost 6 years worth of data on Vince as a starter, spot starter, emergency starter, anything starter. If he is counted on to start many games this year, they will lose more of those games than they win. This is not a future fact, but the data strongly suggests it to be true. I think AAA starters spot starting offers a chance to win, equal to or better than Vince starting. In my opinion, should a regular starter need to go on the injury list, Medina or another AAA arm should be brought in to start. Shuffling Vince from bullpen to rotation and promoting a AAA arm to the bullpen...we already know the outcome.

[fish]

None of the centerfield candidates are prospects anymore so it’s not like Gerardi or Dombrowski owe them a chance to fail. My bet is that Dombrowski makes a deal for a center fielder before the season starts. Nothing flashy, just someone more reliable.

[tom81]

CF is not a problem that needs to be addressed. Herrera has a .885 OPS this spring and is playing aggressive, good defense. Quinn, among the 5 fastest players in the game, has a .809 OPS, and more importantly for someone with his speed, a .400 OBA.

I bet if either Kingery or Haseley put up had put up these kind of numbers this spring there wouldn't be a peep complaining about our CF position.

[Taudawg]

Agreed, as much as I have supported a second chance for Odubel, the truth is, they just need the CF to not be bad. This offense, if healthy, is going to produce runs. Of the CF candidates, we really don't how they are judging the competition. Are they weighing offense over defense, vice versa, etc?

[Austinfan]

Haseley showed up in camp stronger, then got hurt.
He'll probably be at the alternative site, then share CF with Moniak in Lehigh until someone sinks on the Phillies roster and is released/demoted.
Makes more sense to promote on of the kids if Herrera/Quinn/Kingery don't work out.

[andyb]

One of the biggest dangers of this team is going to be performance regression from the players just past their prime. Think age 30-33. It is a significant list of players. Position players like Cutch and Segura and Gregorius. Even Realmuto (he is at the age where catchers regress a bit or are just less healthy). Add in pitchers like Wheeler, Bradley, Neris and you could easily lose 4 WAR from the 30-somethings.

I have less concern about CF. Haseley and Herrera and Quinn and Kingery are all less than 30. Most of them should still get a bit better or at least not regress. And 4 options > 1 option (like if Cutch regresses, we really don't have another .380 OBP guy to plug in there).

Part of the reason the Phillies' win projections hover around 80-83 is that there are not too many young players like Bohm likely to improve. And a bunch of players who are a little bit older that are likely to collectively regress a bit.

[Austinfan]

Cutch had an off year, so even a regression can still be a substantial improvement.
Didi and Segura are your best bets to regress, though if Segura has improved his plate discipline he can buy a year or two (better pitch selection balancing reduced bat speed).
Realmuto is a bit of a freak, and catchers often have a longer career trajectory.

Nola worries me more than Wheeler, high velo guys often balance improved command and secondary pitches against slightly reduced velocity in their early 30s, whereas with Nola, any reduction in arm strength due to cumulative wear and tear will probably show itself as worse command for a year or two before the velo drop becomes apparent. That's been his late season issue.

[David_Criss]

Haseley and Moniak have shown great promise this Spring. Having them play everyday in LF/CF in AAA this year is not the worst idea in the world. Both looked like they needed a little more seasoning and overmatched at times last year. The Phillies will have two huge holes in the outfield next year with McCutchen and presumably Herrera coming off the books.

[zambonir]

I'm kind of amazed Kingery is already 27, which in theory is the prime age.

This line-up is good enough offensively, and the candidates are good enough for a platoon, that CF is not an issue. It's also a very hard position to fill externally. What they really need out of these guys is average or better defense (unless one of them does put up an .800 OPS, of course). If Quinn still looks a little lost out there and Herrera isn't what he once was it's still possible Kingery is the best defensive CF (unless Haseley comes back and shows his 2019 wasn't a fluke) even without a bat.

[andyb]

Betting on a collective group of players over 27 to improve is usually a bad bet. On Realmuto for instance, make a list of All Star catchers and tell me how many on that list are better at age 30 than at age 27. Realmuto regressed last year MAINLY BY GETTING HURT. And now he is hurt again this year. He is not a freak. He is just a good catcher that is now 30 years old. For every skill where he might improve (plate discipline, power) he also has athletic tools that will regress (running speed, bat speed, health, blocking balls in the dirt, etc.).

This does not mean his contract will be bad. It is just we should not expect him to magically get better. As for Nola and Wheeler, one is 27 and one is 30. The older one has had more injuries already than the younger one. And Nola has great command so he probably can handle losing 2 mph off his fastball. Can Wheeler do that since he relies more on velocity? Who knows? But betting on the younger and healthier guy to not regress is usually the right percentage play.

[allentown]

Betting on a collective group of players over 27 to improve is usually a bad bet.

The hope for these Phillies players is to finally receive consistent instruction geared to their specific approach and talents. We have had way too much flux in what the organization has asked of these guys. I still see Herrera as a prime candidate for Adderall. I have read more than once that the Phillies were going to have Kingery's vision evaluated and consider his wearing contacts, but haven't heard of anything happening on this front. Yes, it's asking a lot for improvement after age 27, but it does happen and needing it to happen for only one of 4 CF candidates is a big plus.

CF doesn't seem a huge problem. This team's win total is still largely dependent on the pitching. The position players seem good enough for the team to take a significant step up from last season's results.

[zambonir]

In some ways this team reminds me of the Greg Jeffries/Mark Whitten-era Phillies. Much better players, much better teams, and the franchise is not at all cheap, but still aging and FA-driven, and needing almost everything to go just right - except to get from 81 to 86 or 90, rather than from 70 to 80.

And with not enough help on the way. A lot of money will free up next season, but it still seems unwise to me that that they weren't willing to exceed the CBT with such a short window on the Cutch/JT/Segura years, and now it's probably still a short window on Nola (contractually) and on JT again.

But it's still possible the bullpen alone is the difference between .500 and a wild card, assuming the 3-5 starting pitchers don't implode. The line-up is certainly the best thing.

I don't really think the major league coaching staff has much impact. This is still mostly Kapler's coaching staff, and even our actual GM came out of the Klentak/Kapler analytics/training braintrust. Pitching coach has obviously been a disaster but the good pitchers were still good, and the 'pen was just a mystery (certainly Girardi and Bryan Price were supposed to be great for them!) I guess we can hope Dillon has more of an impact with a full spring training/season.

Let's just hope what they started doing in the minors 2-3 years ago is actuallly working, and works for Dombrowski, because otherwise we're looking at even less consistency for a few more years.

[andyb]

This team's win total is still largely dependent on the pitching. The position players seem good enough for the team to take a significant step up from last season's results.

A 90-win team is very possible. The way I see that happening probably starts with the rotation being better on the back end and the front end doing what they are supposed to do. Then maybe it is Harper having that MVP season that could still be buried inside him along with Bohm being a 950 OPS 30 HR monster at the plate. Add in Bradley and Alvarado and Brogdon providing important late relief and you have a pretty good team. All of that is plausible, as is the scenario of some regression among the older players, Harper having a disappointing season, and the rotation falling apart with injuries and underperformance.

[zambonir]

What you're basically saying is that this is fundamentally an 85-win team - that could swing five games either way. I do very much like the over bet.

[zambonir]

the Phillies, according to multiple sources, have prodded other clubs in the past week to inquire about some veterans on minor-league deals who might fall short of making a roster. That could indicate some pause about Miller.

I would think that is about a lot more than just Miller. Joyce is hurt, CF who knows, Kingery who knows? Could be any type of player.

Phillies roster thoughts with a number of questions remaining: Injuries,...