Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

Yeah I missed the Chatham news too. I would agree Joyce gets the spot but it also seems to indicate Herrera makes the team, at least until Haseley gets back in the mix, and that Quinn is safe for now too. I don't think there was ever a chance of Kingery not making the team (a ghost DL stint, perhaps. The funny thing is maybe a few extra weeks of spring training rather than AAA competition would be good for him).

And Miller can play 3B just fine, pretty sure he played there more than any other place (at least in the IF) for us last time (he was platooning with Sean Rodriguez during that time when they optioned Franco; we had Dickerson in LF).

Assuming Chatham stays on the 40 he and Maton could still be called up at any time, so yeah, that could also let them keep an extra pitcher if they don't try to squeeze both Joyce and Herrera in. Hard to imagine them taking Joyce but not Herrera at thist point; that would mean Kingery and Quinn are the CFs and the bench really would be thin (of both gloves and bats, even if Kingery only theoretically brings the latter).

[andyb]

Some of the decisions (like a 4 or 5 man bench) could revolve around when Haseley is expected to be back. Remember the timetable of his injury was about a month which put it into early April. If Haseley is going to only miss a week or two, they could easily decide the extra pitcher for that period is the priority especially since the rotation might not go as deep the first couple of times.

They could tandem Velasquez a couple of times with another starter and then decide on whether to keep/trade him in mid-April. It does look like Howard is ticketed for the alternate site already with the back spasms. They probably wanted to keep him around 120 innings max anyway, so might as well avoid cold weather with his back and target him for a May recall at whatever rotation spot needs it the most.

[zambonir]

I would think you want Haseley's rehab stint to be as long as a month, certainly no less than two weeks - basically, he still needs to go through spring training. And since Quinn and Joyce (if they take him) can't be optioned he may simply wind up being stuck at the alternate site/AAA unless or until Herrera isn't cutting it or they're ready to put one of those other guys on waivers. A shorter bench might also indicate a greater intention to bring him back sooner.

And Joyce could also just beat out Quinn, though Quinn certainly brings some different things whereas Joyce overlaps with Miller.

[Taudawg]

Big applause (no boos heard) on Odubel's diving catch. With the exception of Angelo's and Eskin's WIP minions, I suspect a large percentage of people are willing to give Odubel the benefit of a second chance.

[zambonir]

If we really lived in a world where loudmouth sports talk guys and their minions were consistently feminist and anti-racist and against domestic violence that wouldn't be so bad, but (without questioning their sincerity) when it's also a "take" it doesn't mean so much.

It's possible there will still be some blowback if and when he gets to Philly but "zero tolerance" is not necessarily what the people who work with DV victims want either. I imagine if it happens the Phillies will have some kind of community service/engagement plan ready too.

Honestly right now the bigger issue is, most people don't think this team can win more than 82-85 games, and CF/Kingery is just another spot, along with the bottom of the rotation, that needs to go perfectly right for them to have serious postseason potential. So while the line-up is probably still good enough to carry a bad CF it could easily still be the spot that needs addressing in July, whether for defense or offense. I suppose Moniak could be in the mix by then too.

[andyb]

I suppose Moniak could be in the mix by then too.

Jeff Passan's ESPN column today had a note on Moniak with one scout saying he should be starting. I really don't know what to think of Moniak and nothing he has done yet really says he is more than a 4th OF. Of course a platoon CF that could have a 750+ OPS with decent defense has some value to this team today. I am curious about what scouts think of his defense these days. It is possible they just have not seen enough to evaluate it. Is he a tweener like Haseley that is only plus in the corners? Or does he have a shot at being at least major league average in CF? I admit I don't really have a clue at this point.

Jeff Passan predicts the 2021 MLB season from every possible angle

[andyb]

Herrera with his 3rd HR is winning the offensive battle today. Not against a really good pitcher (Jimenez) but still good. Quinn 0-1 with a BB. Kingery 0-1 with a K and SAC.

[julio]

It is possible they just have not seen enough [of Moniak' defense] to evaluate it.

This is possible... but I suspect that the scouts have seen more of Moniak's recent performance than we have. If he's really turned some kind of corner, they're likely to pick up on that before we do.

I try to keep in mind that a lot of fans - here and elsewhere in Philly - pretty much wrote Moniak off before he turned 20 (because of expectations that were more based on desires and hopes than on hard-headed analysis, IMHO)... and initial impressions don't change easily.

[zambonir]

Well, the thing is, nobody's really seen Moniak since 2019. Certainly the scouts can better assess how he looks this year than we can. But if there's one scout saying he should be starting I'm sure there's another one who still thinks he's a bust. These articles are still just for entertainment.

If the Phillies weren't such a win-now team under pressure to get off to a good start, they'd have nothing to lose, but the discussion is also only happening because the other candidates are so underwhelming

[andyb]

I try to keep in mind that a lot of fans - here and elsewhere in Philly - pretty much wrote Moniak off before he turned 20

I don't think people have written him off at all. Even here. There is a difference between a disappointing result relative to the expectations of a 1-1 draft pick (or even just say a top 5 overall pick like Bohm given the lack of a clear number one that year) and the prospects of him being a productive major leaguer.

Saying he looks like a 4th OF is not giving up on him. It is resetting expectations. Generally players that become 4th OFs put up decent minor league lines (800 OPS at age appropriate levels). Moniak has done that given the CF defense and the young age at each level. He just has not put up the years that suggest he would be a starter.

Maybe he would have done that last year in AAA. Maybe not. 500 AB in AAA last year would just mean much more to me than 15 AB in Spring Training. Moniak has not played in AAA yet so it is perfectly consistent to say he is not ready and also think he has a decent chance of a productive major league career. While also being disappointed in the pick relative to expectations.

[andyb]

Different topic - does anyone think the Phillies are starting to like Luke Williams more? Starting at SS today. He has played the same amount as Maton and Chatham this Spring. Clearly as a non-roster player he is behind them, but when he gets a look at SS the Phillies might be thinking he is another Kingery who can play basically anywhere except catcher. He has played pretty well (and the mustache/mullet look is spectacular).

If the Phillies needed a 40-man spot, comfort with Williams might give them the incentive to try to get someone like Chatham through waivers.

[Taudawg]

does anyone think the Phillies are starting to like Luke Williams more?

Yes. Another high school kid who could be a late bloomer. Played the Australian Winter League at SS. Also played some there in Reading 2019. Looks fairly athletic and has played every position minus catcher.

I'm almost as anxious to have MILB start as MLB - Luke is one reason.

[rkeden]

Another youngster who has passed my eye test is Jankowski. He looks like a player, though I have read little about him. Seems to handle every situation he is inserted into with a surprising sense of not being at all overwhelmed. Good bat and foot speed! AAA is going to be more fun than I had expected.

[andyb]

He turns 30 in June and played parts of 6 seasons in SD. No guarantee he would be in AAA if he did not make the major league roster, though since he is a local kid he might be up for the alternate site for a month while looking for another major league job. Good defensive OF with some speed. Not much offense however compared to a Joyce.

[zambonir]

Yeah, more of AAAA guy, and this year's Gosselin given the local angle.

Question is, if he made the team over Quinn or Joyce and gave you two starts and 4 PHs a week, would he out-produce them with his defense? I'm sure it's basically a toss-up (Quinn gives you the infield singles and base-running, Joyce the more reliable PH OPS).

I just don't think there many jobs out there, even in normal times opt-out guys often just re-sign with another team as a minor leaguer, and there's probably also more free agents or surplus trade options lying in wait. For Jankowski and Mathis (who also seems to be positioning himself for a coaching job next year) and a few pitchers and probably even Joyce, the taxi squad/alternate site gig is probably a good deal, especially if they have a retention bonus (or can get paid to void their opt-out).

Wonder how Torreyes feels about his status as a Girardi favorite with so many people ahead of him.

[baseballoldie]

Hall was always in mini camp and don't need to be "sent down" because they arent technically in big league camp

[andyb]

Injuries rearing their ugly head again. Didi got hit in the back of the head yesterday. Left the game and is day to day with a headache. Eflin also being skipped this week.

IMO they need to hang onto Velasquez and not be tempted to trade him for a C-level prospect and the bonus of the open 40-man slot. He is going to get 20 starts even if Eflin is fine for opening week. Remember this is a COVID year too. Going 7 or 8 deep in viable starting options is not the worst thing. Howard seems likely to open the season on the IL or at the alternate site too. Probably just caution there in wanting to keep him to about 120 IP, but still emphasizes the importance of depth.

Time to see a little more Segura and Kingery at SS too to determine if we might want Chatham back on the major league roster.

Phillies Health Notes: Didi, Eflin, Howard

[Taudawg]

IMO they need to hang onto Velasquez and not be tempted to trade him for a C-level prospect and the bonus of the open 40-man slot. He is going to get 20 starts even if Eflin is fine for opening week.

To be devil's advocate - let's agree Velasquez gets 20 starts filling in for other rotation hurlers. We know what Vince is - he gives you 5 innings per start at a career ERA 4.72 (106 MLB starts)...pitching to these numbers would likely be a gift as his career has trended downward. The hedge would be that our AAA guys like Medina, Falter, etc can't pop up to the bigs and deliver to, or exceed Vince's level. Also, how does Vince finally get to show he can be an effective reliever if they keep bouncing him back and forth. If Vince is first guy out of the pen to start, I would trade him now. An emergency is different, but 20 starts before the first pitch is every thrown I'm a hard pass? If they give Vince a chance to be a reliever, I say keep him, let's give it a go.

[andyb]

4.72 ERA from your 7th starter may not be bad though. I also would not assume that he is on the downward curve either. It is very possible that HRs are harder to hit this year and we kind of know that is an issue with VV. His stuff is also better than the results. Frustrating of course, but allows for potential improvement. He certainly provides a better chance than Medina or Jones or probably Nova for the future.

And he can hit if the team goes with the short bench this year. I get your main point. I just don't see anyone better we could add and we will likely need 10 starters and 25-30 overall pitchers this year. Ramping up from 60 to 162 could be brutal without depth.

[Taudawg]

Really just thinking the win probability of Vince starting vs. Medina (or other) to not be much different. For Vince to spot start 20 games, means a lot of games (days) he is no longer available as a bullpen piece, so you need to call someone up anyway. It's also really tough to imagine getting 5 innings out of Vince once he's accustomed to the bullpen work. I think it's more likely you get 5-6 innings out of a AAA arm on their regular start day than a guy floating back and forth between bullpen and starting.