Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

LoneStarPhan 2021-03-24 00:11:36 UTC #342

Good to see JT not rusty with the bat. So far, 1 for 2 with 2 runs scored, RBI, homerun and a walk.

Bradley pitched two scoreless, hitless, walkless innings. Kinzler in for the seventh.

LoneStarPhan 2021-03-24 00:34:08 UTC #343

Haseley in left replacing Quinn; comes to bat in bottom of the seventh and singles on the second pitch he sees.

The centerfield competition is still going. I would not be surprised to see Haseley, Kingery, and Quinn all getting starts in center in April. I think Herrera is hurt by not being on the 40.

zambonir 2021-03-24 01:28:08 UTC #344

I think that might ultimately be true. Way back when, Taudawg said Herrera should either be the starter or be released. And while I don't know that the latter happens either, if he's failed to win the starter's job, at least on the strong side of the platoon, he becomes the least valuable of the four players, and the only one who would force the Phillies to release a player. Plus the other three have (relative) youth and controllability and unknown upside, which now outweigh the appeal of getting value out of Herrera's sunk cost (and it's also now urgent to salvage Kingery's sunk cost).

Taudawg 2021-03-24 11:29:34 UTC #345

I like what Quinn has done recently, but the stat line really doesn't tell the whole story for any of the CFs candidates - except for Kingery - His stat line is bad and he has looked bad. The stat line may however, determine who wins the job. It certainly will color public perception. I believed Herrera would win the job a week ago and he might still deserve to based on performance. I haven't missed an inning of the games on TV. Herrera has hit the ball hard a lot, including his outs. His BABIP this spring is .192 suggesting some extremely bad luck. .192 is bad number even for a bad player. His defense has been exceptional. Quinn has leveled up, but his .500 BABIP suggests he has benefited from great luck. He still strike out too much. On defense, he has not been tested and he has made the routine plays.

With the sample size being super small. I think Haseley may look the best. I think the competition is really down to Quinn, Herrera and Haseley. Handicapping the race right now I think Quinn is in the lead. I still believe Herrera should be released if he doesn't win a significant job on the MLB roster. He will only serve to be a distraction and take playing time away from prospects in AAA. Perhaps the low BABIP is karma. Can they stash him in AAA and not play him without facing a MLBPA grievance? I have seen enough to believe Herrera is still pretty good and I think another team will certainly scoop him up if his is released.

David_Criss 2021-03-24 12:35:01 UTC #346

Thanks for the insight into the good luck/bad luck on Quinn and Herrera - great analysis. No one is going to scoop up Herrera as he is making $10 million this season. At this point, let him be the starter in Philadelphia or LeHigh Valley. At the beginning of ST my hope was the Phillies would have a good problem in deciding who would start because all the candidates were looking good. That has not happened. CF could be a revolving door for a while.

Right now Herrera can be sent to AAA. Once he is placed on the 40-man, he cannot be sent down. If I am wrong, about this, please let me know. I believe he is out of options. That means after he is good enough to either make the team or to be called up, he plays in another uniform and the Phillies get nothing, except the joy of paying out the rest of his contract. Based on his performance and from what we have seen him do in the past, the best thing to do is keep him and play him. If he fails, he is released and no grievance because it will be on performance. Id he succeeds the team is better off and they have a trade chip in one of the CF candidates.

All of this is a mess and if I had a time machine, I'd go back and root for a Bradley signing, but most of us on here felt one of the candidates could hit at least as well as JBJ........

This will be a long week for Phillies fans, but we have baseball this year and for that I say thank you Lord we are able to even have this conversation. I'd much rather be talking about the merits of who should play CF than being faced with no season or a shortened season again.

Taudawg 2021-03-24 12:38:31 UTC #347

If the Phillies release him, the Phillies are on the hook for his salary. Next team can pay the minimum.

andyb 2021-03-24 12:40:40 UTC #348

Herrera can be sent down. It is just an outright assignment through waivers and not an option (which Quinn does not have either). Nobody is going to claim Herrera's salary, so he is actually the one person not on the 40 that can actually be sent up and down without any significant chance of losing him. We'd lose Quinn if we sent him down but not Herrera.

So if Herrera does not make the team I think he goes to LHV as injury insurance since the money is spent no matter what. And the Phillies save money on his salary if COVID cancels any games so there is incentive to keep him financially (they saved a bunch last year). Herrera probably has the service time to claim free agency when sent down, but again he won't do that and forfeit his contract. So it is Philly or LHV for Herrera (or a trade with the Phillies picking up all the salary).

And for you JBJ fans, he is 2-17 with 1 BB and 6 Ks this spring. .284 OPS. I still think there is like an 80% chance whatever platoon we cobble together is as good as JBJ this year. Remember JBJ's short, productive 2020 followed 3 years of an OPS ranging from 717 to 738. The JBJ bar is that of a 2-3 WAR player to cross, likely not the 5 WAR pro-rated player of last year.

andyb 2021-03-24 13:31:00 UTC #349

Athletic does a nice piece on Quinn working with Kenny Lofton this Spring. He has also apparently attempted a bunt in each game he has started. Not always successfully, but it does appear that some of his Ks may be due to getting behind in the count as he tries to work on his bunting. Sounds like he understands what he is (a speed player that needs to get on base with occasional power to keep them honest). Executing that vision is a different story of course.

tom81 2021-03-24 13:40:46 UTC #350

As andyb mentioned, Gelb has a good article today about Quinn that suggests that his BABIP this spring may be in part to his approach this year that is different than his previous approach. If you look at career leaders in BABIP you do see a lot of speed guys, Ty Cobb, Billy Hamilton, Willie Keeler.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1871-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=12,d

As for Herrera, he has fallen in love with the long ball and part of his poor BABIP is he hits a lot in the air. His 2018/2019 BABIP was down a lot from his earlier years but at .290 it is far higher than this spring .192.

David_Criss 2021-03-24 13:55:26 UTC #351

Moniak and Suarez optioned this morning. Let the speculation on final spots begin.

That leaves 30 players with legit shots. This is assuming Howard heals at AAA and Miller starts on the IL/DL. The other obvious cuts to come: Williams, Hall, Nova, Rondon, Duran, Bethancourt, Mathis and Jankowski.
So who are your final 3 cuts?

Which 5 make it?, which 2 don't?
VV - Hale: keep 1, both or neither?
Brogdon - Kintler - Coonrod, keep all 3?
Watson - Romero, keep both, one or neither?

The bench is awful with Miller hurt. Which 4 make it?
Joyce(L), Quinn (B), Haseley(L), Torreyes (R), Kingery (R)

40 man cut options begin with Llovera, Dohy and maybe Sanchez, but after that.........
Does Kingery go to AAA in favor of Toreyes? Can Kingery find his swing as a bench bat?

Taudawg 2021-03-24 14:07:31 UTC #352

I completely agree with the science that speed guys should have higher BABIP. They get more bunts, swinging bunts, infield singles, etc. Quinn's career BABIP is .323 which feels about right. This spring it is .500. Since 1937, only 4 players have .400+ BABIP for a season. My post was to point out differences between stats and reality, especially in super small sample, can be very different.

baseballoldie 2021-03-24 14:17:25 UTC #353

Mathis granted his release

andyb 2021-03-24 14:22:47 UTC #354

Today is Kintzler, Watson, and Rondon opt out day. Rondon will not make the team but I thought Kintzler and Watson would. This article says Watson is not a given:

I think I trust Watson in the situational lefty role more than Romero. Plus I also think Alvardo is closing by May, so we probably need Watson and Romero behind him. Bradley has always done better in the setup role that can go a second inning if needed.

andyb 2021-03-24 14:26:59 UTC #355

I agree that the BABIP is superficially making Quinn's Spring stats look better than Herrera. I also think Quinn should have close to a .350 BABIP while the slower and older Herrera might be in the .280-.300 range.

Bottom line though is I see more upside in Quinn. Some of the Ks are due to him working the count and trying things in the Spring that he would not do in the regular season as often. I also think Quinn will be the better defensive player in CF in the long run (more from Herrera being below average than Quinn being really good).

We might be buying time before a July deal anyway and we seem to have enough non-Herrera options that make me believe he has not earned his spot. I would not release him, but I would certainly trade him and pick up his entire salary above the ML minimum if another team was interested.

Taudawg 2021-03-24 14:27:22 UTC #356

Agreed, I was super certain Watson would make the team when they offered him a contract. He has a long track record of success, but he hasn't pitched especially well this spring. If they allow Watson to opt out, it will be just our luck, he'll pitch well for someone else.

Taudawg 2021-03-24 14:35:32 UTC #357

I'd like to keep Quinn, but that is mostly driven by cost and control. I'm not sure I can agree with the defensive assessment. There has been a fairly detailed analysis of Herrera 2018 defense and a lot of the blame could be attributed to Kapler's unorthodox positioning. If Herrera was out of shape, that was likely a big factor as well. Quinn's defense value is mainly his range. Both his minor and major league metrics suggest he is not a great defender - about average. Great range, good arm, bad jumps/reads and not exceptionally sure handed. He may be the fastest player in baseball - his range numbers should be well above league average and they are not.

andyb 2021-03-24 14:43:35 UTC #358

Defensive metrics should not be shaped much by positioning. They are all imperfect, of course, but the better ones measure the chance a ball can be caught based on the fielder's initial positioning. He was also poor in 2019 as well as 2018 coupled with a decline in sprint speed. I do think getting in shape can help, but now he is doing it an age where other physical decline starts to kick in. I just don't expect Herrera to be good defensively again. Given the other issues and the lack of certainty that he is better offensively, I'd just assume play Haseley.

This competition was made out to be Quinn vs Herrera. I tend to think it was more Quinn vs Kingery and then Haseley vs Herrera. To me we will platoon on player strong sides unless someone claims a job. I think Haseley can provide the same below average defense as Herrera in CF while having some offensive potential to try to explore and tap.

Or everything fails and we trade for a rental in July and take a serious look at Moniak and Muzziotti later in the year if we fall out of contention. Muzziotti apparently just got to camp which is why we have not seen him in games but he should be in the AA/AAA mix this year and is actually the best of all these options defensively.

Taudawg 2021-03-24 15:11:47 UTC #359

I don't think they'll need to trade for a rental, or slot in Moniak/Muzziotti. There is an acceptable solution(s) in the group. Haseley at his worst is going to provide adequate defense and league average offense. CF is actually not a deep MLB position. After a few elite players (Trout, Springer) there isn't mush the Phillies cannot match with a platoon or a single actually reaching their potential. The Phillies are somewhat fortunate to have guys competing.

I suspect there are people who want Odubel to fail or decline, and that probably colors their opinion of him. Wanting him to fail or decline is understandable given his crimes. I've watched all the televised spring games and my eye test suggests the Odubel in camp is better than the 2018-19 version. Is he pre-2018 Odubel? I'm not certain, but I'm just as uncertain about Quinn being new and improved - not to mention can he stay healthy.

andyb 2021-03-24 15:18:02 UTC #360

Haseley (CF), Kingery (LF), Joyce (RF), and Herrera (DH) all in the lineup today.

Joyce is another position to debate. Do we need the extra LH bat if Haseley is healthy and Miller is on the roster? Is the 40-man spot worth it for a glorified pinch hitter? I am not sure. I definitely want Kintzler and Watson before Joyce.

Taudawg 2021-03-24 15:23:05 UTC #361

Agreed. Joyce has played well, but if Haseley and Herrera both make the team Joyce becomes redundant. Haseley and Herrera both have good numbers coming off the bench in PH role.