Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

If the team is actually good enough to win the division then the system is also deep enough. The team probably isn't. But there's no reason to think a deadline deal for a pending FA would decimate the system, or even cost that much. In the Phillies' case they wouldn't be expecting the old team to kick in $ either.

Given how this front office read and waited out the Arrieta market, and given they had the Orioles connection with him as well, I also don't think you can rule out the added value of potentially re-signing him, if it falls into place properly - a winning Phillies team, a doable trade, keeping him from another team (that may be competition in both 2018 and beyond), having a captive "recruit." If they're confident he can go play for the Yankees or whoever and still be sign-able in December, that's okay too

[andyb]

Team total WAR:

Pitching: +4.7 (starters +2.9, relievers +1.8). 3 great starters so far. Arano, Garcia, Ramos all +0.4 or better out of the bullpen.

Hitters: +1.4 total (OWAR +3.0, DWAR -1.6). Best hitters have been Hernandez (+1.1), Herrera (+1.0), then Hoskins (+0.8). Hoskins is best offensively (+1.3) and by far the worst defensively (-0.6). Crawford, Williams, Santana, and Kingery all grading out -0.2 to -0.3 defensively in the early going.

Pitching has been our strength. The development of Pivetta and the addition of Arrieta are the biggest changes. The bullpen is developing though it is also SSS with a somewhat shaky closer.

Defense is a problem. Crawford should be better than his stats, but clearly we are losing some games by playing Hoskins and Kingery out of position. Playing Kingery in the OF may not be helping too much. They can spin the multi-position flexibility all they want, but it may not be helping the team. If they did ever swing a Machado for Franco and prospects deal I might consider sending Kingery down for a month or two. He really should be a 2B and they already have a good one. Now if they can trade Hernandez for something worthy of his value that would certainly allow Kingery to play 2B even if it would not be the "compete today" move the people want.

[Philsmania]

Pitching has been our strength. The development of Pivetta and the addition of Arrieta are the biggest changes. The bullpen is developing though it is also SSS with a somewhat shaky closer.

And Velasquez, outside of a couple of clunkers.

[BostonRoss]

Interesting that the team is 6 wins above replacement and 6 games over .500. A replacement level team should be well under .500. This implies that the Phillies so far have been getting better results than their performance would indicate. Luck is more early season SSS, and so I have to wonder whether the W-L record is sustainable without performance improvements.

[julio]

Interesting that the team is 6 wins above replacement and 6 games over .500. A replacement level team should be well under .500. This implies that the Phillies so far have been getting better results than their performance would indicate.

Well, that's one way of looking at it. OTOH, one might look at that and wonder if, just perhaps, the metric being used is suspect? There's a tendency to fall in love with metrics; whether one chooses RC+, or OPS, or WAR, or whatever, it's easy to start abusing your favorite metric, imagining that it conveys meaning when it really does not.

[andyb]

And Velasquez, outside of a couple of clunkers.

Velasquez is a zero in WAR now, so can't be counted as a strength yet. Of course the replacement would have been worse, but all that is SSS. I am encouraged by VV but realize he is more of a work in progress still. Houston should probably have left him in the minors another year for his development (kind of like we should not touch Enyel De Los Santos for a couple of months even if he is our best AAA starter).

Amazing stat on VV: He was a HS draftee who had his debut at age 18 and is now almost 26. This is his 9th professional season. He has pitched only 610 innings (TJ surgery and minor injuries plus short outings). He has only been used as a reliever for one half season.

The guy needs innings. And he is also is presently our 4th best starter so there is no reason those innings should not be in the majors.

[andyb]

Luck is more early season SSS, and so I have to wonder whether the W-L record is sustainable without performance improvements.

Biggest thing has been the relatively weak schedule. Better teams like the Mets and now the DIamondbacks give us more trouble. This does look like it could be a 500 team to me though. The bullpen performance could easily be SSS, but more Hunter and eventually Neshek means it might be more sustainable than we think. Pivetta is a surprise but his stuff is legit.

On offense and defense we do have some reasonable improvement to look at. Santana, Altherr, Williams should all be better than they have been. Catcher won't get worse. Kingery and Crawford won't get worse. Hernandez may have some regression because this is a new level for him, but Herrera has done this for multiple seasons and there is a no reason to think that Hoskins is a flash in the pan so far. Defense should improve as Crawford settles down and maybe we play Kingery less. It will never be great with the way Kapler plays people all over the place. Let's just hope the offense justifies those choices.

[EastFallowfield]

Pirates are 14-7 in games not vs the Phils, so they kinda seem like a 'better' team too, or at least a team that should win at least once in a four game series if we're judging the Phils on how they matched up in one series at one point in a season.

[flyers19rw]

Velasquez is a zero in WAR now, so can't be counted as a strength yet. Of course the replacement would have been worse, but all that is SSS. I am encouraged by VV but realize he is more of a work in progress still. Houston should probably have left him in the minors another year for his development (kind of like we should not touch Enyel De Los Santos for a couple of months even if he is our best AAA starter).

Amazing stat on VV: He was a HS draftee who had his debut at age 18 and is now almost 26. This is his 9th professional season. He has pitched only 610 innings (TJ surgery and minor injuries plus short outings). He has only been used as a reliever for one half season.

The guy needs innings. And he is also is presently our 4th best starter so there is no reason those innings should not be in the majors.

In another organization, VV would have probably had a different role. However in the SP starved Phillies one, he was shoved into the rotation. IDK if sending him down to LV to work on his game is the answer however changing his role while he is here might make sense. The Cardinals have used pitchers, who they see as future potential starters, out of the BP in non closing roles in order to get their feet on the ground in the majors. This has had success for them. Perhaps this is VV needs for a few months.

[zambonir]

But as Andy says he's actually our fourth-best starter. Or in a perfect world fifth, once Eickhoff is back, but still better than the other options. If it's about having the best team Lively/Eflin/Thompson/Hutchison don't make the rotation better than VV does. And if it's about letting VV develop, he can do it in the majors even if the result isn't always what we want.

Maybe in July this is a different conversation, assuming overall good health. They acquire a starter or have someone in AAA who is ready for a look (De Los Santos?)

Not that he beat out anyone that great but VV pitched his way into the rotation in 2016, over Morgan and Oberholtzer. Then he had that amazing April game and Charlie Morton also went down (giving Morgan that spot) so yeah, they were thin, but he was major league ready. Health is what's slowed him down every season.

[EastFallowfield]

Lively to the DL with back stiffness. Jake Thompson recalled, says Salisbury.

[zambonir]

Heh, is this the latest example of a pitcher failing to tell the trainer he wasn't right until after his performance made it clear, or is this more of a paper move? Because I'm assuming Thompson is coming up to pitch out of the pen this weekend (and beyond, they can probably skip the 5th turn one time?)

[andyb]

Because I'm assuming Thompson is coming up to pitch out of the pen this weekend (and beyond, they can probably skip the 5th turn one time?

They'll need the 5th starter Tuesday unless they want someone to go on short rest or do a Thompson/Hutchison bullpen game. Can't imagine they want to go off the 40-man roster for this. Lively could make it back in 10 days the second time they will need a 5th starter.

[zambonir]

Ah, yeah. So they could either not use Hutchison this weekend and let him start or swap Thompson (or someone else) for the spot starter.

And at some point Neshek might be back to reshuffle the pen further.

[LoneStarPhan]

I think the best thing for the Phillies would be to use Hutchison or Thompson as the fifth starter for a short period. I would like to see the prospects such as Eflin and De Los Santos stay at AAA for at least several more starts. Go with what is already on the big club for the next two or three times through the rotation and reevaluate alter that. Maybe Lively is back or maybe Leiter will be in the mix by then. Maybe even one of Hutchison or Thompson will surprise and look good in the starting role.

[zambonir]

My guess is they are more interested in taking advantage of the roster flexibility the DL spot gives them. I think Thompson will pitch out of the pen this weekend (otherwise why not call up a different reliever and swap him for Thompson on Tuesday?).

And Eflin's perfectly capable of making a spot start. He would already be in the rotation if Lively hadn't beaten him out and the Phillies hadn't signed Arrieta. I'd leave de Los Santos be, yeah.

[LoneStarPhan]

I expect Eflin will be in the roation by June, but I think a few more AAA starts would be good for him. Of course, it is true that he has already pitched (and started) at the ML level, so yes, I would be okay with him coming up anytime but agree that de los Santos probably should not be rushed.

[teabag259]

after a full month where does Nola rank among NL starters? To me he has to be top 5 at the least. After Kershaw and Scherzer who is definitely better?

[xogfog]

I would say Nola is safer to say top ten. Right now, In addition to Kershaw and Scherzer I'd have Syndergaard, Strasburg, DeGrom, Martinez ahead of Nola and a few veteran guys like Grienke, Lester and Cueto who historically have been very good and too early to write off yet rounding out the list, also Bumgarner who has yet to pitch this year.

[teabag259]

I thought about Degrom and Thor. Velo aside I didn't put them ahead of Nola but I can see why you would. Martinez has been electric this month. I did forget about Strasburg. The other guys you mentioned...I would take Nola over them.