Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

Yup and that also means you could trade Lively or Eflin or Eickhoff at some point if you wanted to (certainly this entire group can't stay on the 40 next year).

Though we still don't know what this rotation looks like against better competition either. Ups and downs likely to come there. Hopefully health holds, But if they even have three good starters you can go get another one if you're going for it (a Happ for Oswalt move, essentially. Which didn't seem like a bad decision for the first three years!)

[LoneStarPhan]

There is no way I would trade Hernandez or any of the top prospects for a half year of a player, regardless of how good he might be. I hope they are still building for a team that will be a post season player for multiple years. Only trade good prospects or Hernandez for players who will be around in 2019 and longer.

I remember too well the tries to bring in players after the fall in 64. It just doesn't work well.

[andyb]

ESPN one key fix article. For the Phillies it is Machado for Franco....

One key fix for all 30 teams

[tom81]

ESPN one key fix article. For the Phillies it is Machado for Franco....

Machado for Crawford would net the same or more of an net improvement if the only concern is this year.

[julio]

Machado for Crawford would net the same or more of a net improvement if the only concern is this year.

That's not clear to me. From your comment, it appears that you're lconsidering only offense, and not defensive differences.

And of course, that's based on less than a month's data. We really don't know what a full season of Crawford vs. Franco will look like - whether WAR or OPS, or anything else (well, excluding SLG - if Franco's seasonal SLG isn't better than Crawford's, something is seriously amiss somewhere!)

[zambonir]

Well, short-term it probably doesn't matter unless you were actually going to cut/demote Franco or demote Crawford. Franco would play against lefties, Crawford would play against righties. Or Kingery and Crawford share that time. You just let Florimon go, ultimately.

No matter how it shakes out you probably want Crawford in the majors playing with and backing up Machado, whether they are going to be teammates for years to come or if it's just an opportunity for Crawford to learn from him for three months.

I can't read the article but it's probably not realistic for the Orioles to make Machado available before June 30 and even that is probably a stretch, so plenty of time to see how Crawford and Kingery develop. (Franco too but it's obviously easier to think he is what he is).

[andyb]

Machado for Crawford would net the same or more of an net improvement if the only concern is this year

Machado at 3B would be an improvement both offensively and defensively. If Machado played SS you would have some regression on defense (maybe at both SS and 3B). And whether Crawford or Franco is better offensively is an open question. Crawford should end up with a higher OBP and Franco will have the higher SLG. A 700 OPS Crawford is probably better than a 750 OPS Franco because of the greater importance in OBP.

So this move helps the most if it is Machado for Franco, not Crawford.

[kmc1019]

Machado is probably the most fascinating storyline this year in terms of in-year player movement, and the options all seem bad for Baltimore.

They're off to a bad start.
They cannot let him walk at the end of the year getting virtually nothing in return; draft pick compensation is minimal.
They are not likely to get much value for him in a trade as a rental player.
He seems intent on testing the open market.

I would love to see the Phils offer a Franco or Crawford-centered package, but a prerequisite would likely have to be either of them playing at a positive WAR, which seems a low probability. The awful April for just about every one of our top prospects is not helping the cause either.

[xogfog]

Machado does not want to play 3B. The pay difference between SS and 3B is no small difference. He wants to establish his value as a SS.

[andyb]

Machado does not want to play 3B. The pay difference between SS and 3B is no small difference. He wants to establish his value as a SS.

For this year that does not matter. And actually he may not be more valuable at SS than he is at 3B if he continues to grade below average defensively at SS. Nobody would expect him to play more than 2-3 years at SS anyway and he would be signing something like a 7-8 year deal.

Sometimes players don't get everything they want.

[xogfog]

Machado is top 3 at his position at 3B and SS. SS gets paid more, that is why he wants to stay there. If the Phillies would trade for him and make him play 3B, there is no way he would consider signing unless they pay him like a top SS.

[andyb]

SS gets paid more, that is why he wants to stay there.

Not necessarily if he is below average defensively there. Teams will evaluate how he does this year in a decent sample size. RIght now the stats are negative (and were last year too).

Manny Machado Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

[zambonir]

If you just look at the Top 5 guys, shortstops aren't better-paid than third basemen. Donaldson makes more than Tulo, and four other 3B make more than the second-highest paid SS - which is Machado, whose salary history is based on him being a 3B. Mid-range SSs may do better than 3B but that's not going to an effect an elite free agent on the open market one way or another.

Now, maybe Machado can get the best contract if he's not competing with other 3B (Donaldson, Moustakas) but in the end I doubt any of it matters. If a team is willing to meet his top price he will probably be flexible; conversely, if a team wants him badly enough they will let him play where he wants, and in the Phillies' case, while Crawford is more optimal at SS, he's also not immovable. And considering what the Phillies are doing right now with Hoskins and Kingery, they're flexible too.

[andyb]

The reality in the analytics world we live in is that salaries are being judged by the value they deliver (i.e. WAR). So while more traditional writers would say that Machado should make more at SS than 3B because the offense is so much better than average, analytics people are considering defense. So Machado might be a 6 WAR offensive player and a 2 WAR defensive player at 3B. If he is only 0 WAR defensively at SS his overall WAR is less.

Now the market and supply/demand at each position is also a factor. And Machado's offense is further ahead of the average SS offense than 3B. All are factors.

Adding all that up I don't think he gets paid much more as a SS than as a 3B unless he shows he can be a good defensive SS, especially because he likely moves back to 3B anyway as he ages. Now he may not want to play any place that does not want him as a SS, but that is not a factor as to whether we would trade for him.

[zambonir]

And what are we really talking about here money-wise anyway? That $400 million number has been thrown around for both him and Harper, but that started several years ago. If he's going to sign an eight-year deal is one position really more likely than the other to get him $42 million AAV instead of $40 million?

It matters somewhat in terms of trading for him however, in that you want to acquire a happy player, and you're recruiting him to play here beyond this season. If they get him, he's probably the SS, not because he's a prima donna but because you accomodate players who are that good.

Defensive WAR is still pretty shaky isn't it? It is also, of course, quite early. Give him another 100 games at SS and he might look a lot better.

[Austinfan]

It would be nuts to trade for Machado, since he's going to hit free agency in any case.
And he might add 2 wins, so what, we finish 84-78 instead of 82-80.
Velasquez is showing while he's improved, he's not ready.
Lively has lost his command his last two starts, Eickhoff is a month away.
While Altherr has rediscovered his stroke, Alfaro is a basket case.

This is not a competitive playoff team with Machado.
They still need a lot of players to step up.

[zambonir]

After this Arizona series I might agree with that, if it's a preview of the next six weeks. But we'll see. The dicussion is merely for entertainment purposes right now. But if they're still a .600 wild card team that's just a few games out of first in July, anything could happen, and at that point, on paper, you'd be trying to improve an 88 or 90-win team.

Of course if they did trade for Machado they would also probably add a starting pitcher.

[LoneStarPhan]

I am of the opinion that adding Machado in a trade during this season does little in the plan for building a consistent contender.

[allentown]

It sets the plan back. Our farm is looking a lot less deep than we had hoped coming into the season.

[tom81]

Of course if they did trade for Machado they would also probably add a starting pitcher.

Add Machado and MadBum to this Phillies team and no one would want to meet them in the post season.
http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18460/olney-giants-should-consider-a-bumgarner-blockbuster