Discussion

David_Criss 2018-04-25 15:55:27 UTC #162

The biggest concern I have right now with the offense is Alfaro is on pace to strikeout nearly 50% this year. Something is off there for him to miss so much. In 53 trips to the plate - 2 with international walks, so out of 51 - 1 extra base hit (HR), 7 singles, 4 walks and 24 strikeouts

andyb 2018-04-25 16:54:35 UTC #163

A little topic to ruminate on with the team playing fairly well but having some offensive issues. Manny Machado. The O's are imploding so there is a case for the Orioles to shop Machado around now (though waiting till the deadline and getting a bidding war going would also be an option).

Machado is playing at a 6+ WAR level (1154 OPS) even with his SS defense grading out as a negative. If the Phillies could add 4 wins by swapping in Machado for Franco, how much is that worth to our playoff chances? Prospect cost would be high and I doubt we could require a long term signing to make the deal, but there is actually a growing case that this could be a trade to look at regardless of whether we were guaranteed to sign Machado long term.

Food for thought anyway.

xogfog 2018-04-25 16:57:58 UTC #164

Everything I've seen so for indicates Machado really wants to test free agency. I don't think he will sign any deal with any team he is traded to.

zambonir 2018-04-25 16:58:38 UTC #165

Alfaro probably needed another half-season at AAA too, he just can' go there. He won't stay this bad but he's always going to be that kind of player, the question is will his power be worth it.

To me, the major league team is the AAA team. Arrieta and Santana and two FA relievers are there to provide a foundation, but five of the eight position players (plus Kingery and Williams) are essentially unproven (Franco obviously, an Altherr still has do it for a third season). The current W-L record is fun but this is still a season about developing and winnowing. If anyone goes to AAA it will be because they need fixing, not because it's hurting the big league team (though if they are contending in July, boy, will we hear a lot about Machado).

andyb 2018-04-25 16:58:48 UTC #166

Notes from the Athletic including the improvement in framing seen from the catchers, most specifically Alfaro.

We are now 15th-16th as a team in catcher framing/strike stats after being bottom 5 the past half decade. Alfaro is above average now and this is important. It is why he should get the majority of the catcher's starts (maybe a 60-40 split) even if Knapp outhits him. His POP times are also among the best in the league.

andyb 2018-04-25 17:00:04 UTC #167

My question is whether we should consider trading for him WITHOUT that guarantee. Are we close enough to being a good team that with Machado we might actually win the division?

zambonir 2018-04-25 17:12:46 UTC #168

Ha I posted that about Machado before seeing Andy's post. It's a question we don't have to answer now. If this team is still a contender on June 1 then sure, there's a price you'd pay just to get him on your team this year (with the added bonus of recruiting him, even if he's determined to hit the open market).

And he still might not hit the open market per se, he's just not likely to do an in-season deal.

If the Phillies are in a position to be acquiring talent at the deadline, 3B/SS is obviously a place where they'd have to consider it. So why get Josh Donaldson (or someone worse) for cheap if you can get Machado?

A lot depends on Kingery and Crawford too. Because Machado's probably not going to play 3B.

xogfog 2018-04-25 17:12:59 UTC #169

Okay then, let's play that scenario out, let's say the Phillies are good enough, especially once the bullpen is settled. With no guarantee that you can sign Machado, and with the Orioles and any team trying to trade for him knowing that he is going to test free agency, what do you expect the Phillies would have to give up? Would you trade Hernandez and one of the pitching prospects not named Sixto?

andyb 2018-04-25 17:18:57 UTC #170

I was noting that he is grading out negatively on defense so far (and in the past he has been no better than neutral at SS). Agree there is no reason to think about this for a month or so, but if we did think this team could compete now then it is kind of the obvious game-changing move to make. And I put him at 3B and sell him on being a gold glove 3B. Obviously he would be protection against Crawford struggles, but I would be making this deal to make the team better now in 2018 and Machado at 3B would be the way to make that happen. As for long term, the best way to make him want to stay is to make the playoffs and be ready with a $300 million plus check. He probably realizes he will not be a SS into his 30s anyway.

Of course the price will be heavy in prospects. Is he worth Sixto plus 2 other top 10 prospects if we think we can win the division. I am not sure what the answer is to that question yet.

andyb 2018-04-25 17:20:58 UTC #171

I would definitely do that. Cesar plus Medina any day. Think the price will be higher though.

zambonir 2018-04-25 17:31:08 UTC #172

While I would ultimately trade Cesar for anyone, if you're making a run at the playoffs right now you can't subtract your best hitter (well, in the infield anyway). The team with Franco/Crawford/Hernandez and Kingery on the bench might not actually be better than the team with Machado/Crawford/Kingery.

Fortunately I don't think Cesar is the kind of player who gets you someone at the deadline. Makes too much money, too old, too close to free agency. He'd be a throw-in at best (a la Nate Schierholtz) and he's worth more than that. If he was moved at the deadline it would be to another contender, perhaps to slightly replenish prospects you just traded for Machado and pitching, but you can just wait until the off-season to do that, or to fill another need.

Austinfan 2018-04-25 17:50:37 UTC #173

NO. Fools gold this season. So giving up a lot of talent for 4 months of Machado is stupid. Even more if he insists on playing SS to try and drive up his FA value. I don't want a guy who puts his new contract ahead of his team in any case - once you pay him, where's his motivation?

The ETA is 2020, young players go up and down, it'll take a couple years to separate the pretenders from the contenders.

zambonir 2018-04-25 19:56:37 UTC #174

It's fine to say that now, and most likely it won't be a big debate in July. But if it is, and they have a serious chance to win the division - not the wild card - of course they will go for it, and they obviously want Machado so badly that it's safe to say that your concerns are not their concerns. They drafted him, they developed him, they've been clearing the decks for him and they probably think they have a better chance of getting him than Harper. If they can improve the team short-term while also improving their long-term chance at signing him, it will be tempting.

And they have more than enough depth (at multiple levels) to be buyers of any kind, if the moment calls for it. Doesn't mean four months of Machado will be their first choice but it's definitely a choice.

Austinfan 2018-04-25 20:57:48 UTC #175

I'm not sure how much depth they really have right now, the minor league teams aren't exactly impressing.

EDmuch 2018-04-25 21:24:56 UTC #176

AF, your ETA of 2020 is not cast in stone anywhere except in your own mind. If the pitching continues to develop and, as seems likely, the FO will go out and get a big name UFA next year, the just may be ready to compete next year. Maybe events year. It is not "fool's gold" to tell the fans to not get excited for a few more years yet.

Austinfan 2018-04-25 21:31:24 UTC #177

Simply my experience, it's easy to get excited over SSS performance, but young players tend to follow a two step forwards, one step back, development path - the league adjusts to them, they adjust back, . . .

So until you have a solid core with a decent track record of success, be a bit skeptical.

zambonir 2018-04-25 22:22:26 UTC #178

Well, depth is not always the same thing as value. But just at the major league level they have two 2B and an extra starting OF. And a lot of arms and outfielders overall (not that you can ever have too many arms but if you trade for one you're probably deleting one too).

If we're talking someone like Machado it will cost, but should the Phillies need to acquire the equivalent of a Blanton or a Pence, they can do it pretty easily.

Or maybe they find some GM who still likes some of the system's current disappointments as much as Ruben Amaro Jr. claimed to like those three Mariners.

I think it's more likely we're watching a .500 team on July 1 but right now there are just as many areas where improvement seems inevitable as there are likely disappointments. The bullpen is probably the real key, if they can keep getting people out like they have this team is going places; if they just haven't faced any good line-ups (before last night) things might trail off.

andyb 2018-04-25 22:23:33 UTC #179

There is just no way this team is not trying to compete by 2019. The investment in Arrieta after Santana seals that. Plus we have history of the team playing close to .500 with young players in the second half last year and now this year (SSS, soft schedule, etc.).

We DO have minor league depth. The system is no longer top heavy after graduating a bunch of top 100 prospects this year (Kingery, Crawford, Alfaro). But we still have depth in the lower minors even if our number 1s have not done well.

Whether we compete this year depends on what happens the next month or two. Whether we compete next year with the ability to add guys like Machado or Harper should not be a question. If this core does not develop then we will not be successful, but then we are not competing under any circumstance anyway.

zambonir 2018-04-25 22:28:14 UTC #180

Yeah, I don't think they are going to just hang around waiting for the C, 3B, SS and RFs to develop in 2019. Much depends on the FA move and also what they want to do with Cesar but even apart from those two things I just assume they will upgrade one more position via trade or FA, if it needs upgrading.

And they'll be trading for a starting pitcher, we just don't know who or when.

andyb 2018-04-25 22:33:13 UTC #181

The one thing to think about is whether starting pitching is suddenly a strength of ours. Nola is very good. Arrieta could be very good. Pivetta's performance is built on good stuff and better offspeed pitches so it makes sense. And Velasquez is uneven but enticing in his performance.

And we are not even talking about Eickhoff or others at AAA yet (not that they have been that good). 2019 could easily see a second half Sixto as well, maybe a Romero too.

If we have suddenly stumbled into a top 5-10 MLB rotation it makes everything easier. It is why we can win when guys like Santana and Alfaro are unlucky or struggling. Pitching and defense and OBP can win lots of games.