Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[BostonRoss]

Interesting that the team is 6 wins above replacement and 6 games over .500. A replacement level team should be well under .500. This implies that the Phillies so far have been getting better results than their performance would indicate.

Well, that's one way of looking at it. OTOH, one might look at that and wonder if, just perhaps, the metric being used is suspect? There's a tendency to fall in love with metrics; whether one chooses RC+, or OPS, or WAR, or whatever, it's easy to start abusing your favorite metric, imagining that it conveys meaning when it really does not.

I'm not "in love" with WAR, but there is a strong correlation between team WAR and team wins. Last year in the NL, 12 of the 15 teams had a differential between WAR and wins between 46 and 52. That is a pretty narrow range. Obviously the error is greater with only 15% of the season gone by, but there is no denying the correlation. I wouldn't question the metric because I saw an outlier.

Actually, though, what was faulty was my mathematical interpretation. If a replacement level team wins 49 games over a year, that would be about 7 games through the 24 that were played when andyb reported the numbers. Six games above replacement level is 13 wins, and the Phillies had won 15. That's not really an outlier at all; the Phillies are only slightly outperforming their WAR.

[BostonRoss]

Biggest thing has been the relatively weak schedule.

The weak schedule is a reason for both a goof W-L record and a higher WAR. But as i noted in my response to Julio, my interpretation was faulty.

I do agree that there is room for improvement, and in some cases that improvement is likely. Younger players on average improve, but not all of them will, of course.

[Austinfan]

Given that only Hernandez, Herrera and Hoskins (we need a fourth "H") are playing above their norm, there is a lot of room for improvement.

[tom81]

But do we really know that Hernandez, Herrera and Hoskins are playing above their norms? This year Hernandez has an OPS of .829 and Herrera's is .920. Last year's second half for them was .842 and .928 respectively. Maybe both of them are playing to their new norms which they established in last year's second half?

As to what is the norm for Hoskins I don't think anyone has a clue. He has constantly improved at every step of his pro career against stronger competition along the way. Ok I do doubt that he maintains his .346 BA with his .460 BABIP but a BA in the .280 - .300 range might be well within his norm. His .603 SLG also might be his norm, he is a big man who rarely swings at bad pitches. He might be very special.

[Jeff05]

I agree, Tom. I can't speak to the future of their respective stats; however, Herrera and Hernandez have been consistently good major league players that many phans underrate and there are some who are still anxious to trade them. I imagine being the successor to Utley would have been almost as hard as following Schmidt at third. (Btw, I'm not suggesting that Austinfan has called for a precipitous trade - can't remember his position in that regard.) And, Lord knows what Hoskins will become. Throughout his brief MLB career, he has given every indication that he is an OBP machine with power.

[Philsmania]

Roughly one month into the season, is it too early to talk about All-Star prospects? Nola and Arrieta have certainly pitched like All-Stars and one can make a case for Pivetta, too though he is probably a long shot. On the player side, the three H's all have played like All-Stars though Hernandez is not enough of a household name even in the league to get picked. Hoskins probably gets into the HE derby as MLB always like to show off new guys there.

[BostonRoss]

It's never too early to have a fun discussion, even though it's very hypothetical in April. (Of course, the All-Star ballots should be out any day...)

Hernandnez should have at least a shot at an All-Star berth. Last year's NL All-Star 2B were Daniel Murphy, Josh Harrison, and DJ LeMahieu, and the first two are hurt now. Javier Baez, Ozzie Albies, and LeMahieu may have good shots, and I suppose they may have to pick Castro as the Marlins rep. The biggest "names" are Murphy and Chase Utley.

[EastFallowfield]

Checked the ESPN ranking in strength of schedule and it has the Phils at 9th hardest out of 30. Is there a better site that shows how the Phils schedule is exceptionally soft so far other than looking at the standings and see more wins than we are used to of late?

[andyb]

Checked the ESPN ranking in strength of schedule and it has the Phils at 9th hardest out of 30. Is there a better site that shows how the Phils schedule is exceptionally soft so far other than looking at the standings and see more wins than we are used to of late?

Part of that is colored by the records of a couple of teams that are superficially better than their record. Pittsburgh and the Braves for instance. Strength of schedule based on last season W-L would be much weaker. All this will equal out over the next few months. The Phillies are not quite as good as their record most likely (though hopefully are improving).

[EastFallowfield]

So it's not based on how teams are doing when we play them but on how real we feel they are?

Was also wondering if we feel the Phils schedule is exceptionally easy or are there just a bunch of bad teams that everyone gets to play.

[zambonir]

I think our schedule is just unbalanced. But it's also probably a weak division. It's fair enough to assume Arizona is better than Pittsburgh based on the combination of this year and last year. If the Pirates are actually better than the Cubs and Brewers, well, I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[allentown]

I don't think the division, apart from Marlins, is going to be as weak as predicted. In particular, the Mets, Braves, and Phillies seem stronger than anticipated; Nats not as strong as expected yet, but I think that will likely pick up, just as I don't expect the Dodgers to be a sub-.500 team. Cinncy and Marlins are legit weak teams on our early schedule.

[EastFallowfield]

Right, but we've only played the Marlins 3 times and have played the better Braves a lot. And the three games vs the Reds are balanced by three against Arizona. Tampa Bay was around .500 last year and are around .500 this year but when we played them they weren't, so wins against them don't count.

[zambonir]

I'm sure SOS calculations exist (or can be done) for any metric one might prefer (last year's record, this year's PECOTA projections, current record). For now I'm still pretty comfortable saying the three expected best teams in the Central and West are better than the three expected best teams in the East but these things will work themselves out (and the Phillies are still leading all those Central teams for the first wild card).

[schillingfan]

Right, but we've only played the Marlins 3 times and have played the better Braves a lot. And the three games vs the Reds are balanced by three against Arizona. Tampa Bay was around .500 last year and are around .500 this year but when we played them they weren't, so wins against them don't count.

I am already so sick of seeing the Braves. Maybe the Reds and Yankees love playing each other a lot, but I just hate seeing the same teams grouped together like this.

I HATE THE UNBALANCED SCHEDULE.

[zambonir]

Yeah it's kind of a circular firing squad right now isn't it? If the Braves and Mets are better than expected than we're better than expected, and vice-versa. If the Braves are actually terrible, well, we're probably not very good either.

Also, I was just in Minneapolis and the Twins had a hot interleague series against...the Reds. I just couldn't bring myself to care.

[EastFallowfield]

Oh, the Pirates are back in first again.

[xogfog]

Crawford to the 10 day DL with a right forearm strain, Valentin recalled.

[andyb]

Just posting about that on the game thread with Kingery at SS today. Assume SS by committee for 10 days. Hope it is not more though I would not be shocked to see the team give Crawford a few low pressure AAA games on rehab once he is healthy if the committee at SS is doing OK.

[tom81]

Sounds like Kingery will get most of the time at SS. I think they want to see if he can handle the position.

“Crawford's injury does a few things. First, Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery are expected to play regularly at third base and shortstop, respectively.”

J.P. Crawford placed on DL with forearm strain