Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion - Part Deux

[zambonir]

Or the bullpen. Or the offense. Or the 1-4 start. There's not one thing.

[andyb]

I think the Phillies are done trading, but there does look like there will be a flurry of really expensive vets available for cash by Friday. Donaldson played in a rehab game yesterday and will be put on waivers today. The Nats are still a couple million above the luxury tax line so are looking to move Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Madson if they can. Giants seem likely to move McCutchen if they can. Granderson, Estrada, and Clippard mentioned from the Blue Jays as well.

Cost will be cash and a 40-man spot. Not sure we are interested in anything after Bautista. Should we be?

Rosenthal: The likelihood of a Josh Donaldson trade; missing...

[Lawman]

I was thinking maybe an arm, like Gio Gonzalez, just to give our arms a breather down the stretch.

[Austinfan]

We're running out of scrubs (players who won't get claimed when they're DFA'd or who would be dropped from the 40 man roster in October in any case). So it's unlikely Klentak picks up anyone else unless they're either a clear upgrade or he thinks he might want to sign them for future years. Do you pick up Madson at the cost of a controllable Garcia?

[andyb]

Future year interest has nothing to do with these decisions. Even with guys like Ramos I don't think future considerations are a factor. They probably want all the impending free agents off the roster for the winter meetings prior to the rule 5 draft anyway, even if we choose to resign a player or two. The exception is the guys like Avilan that are not free agents yet. Still only 50-50 we keep him but we do need left-handed relief.

[bkeich]

Future year interest has nothing to do with these decisions. Even with guys like Ramos I don't think future considerations are a factor.

But there is value in having guys you see in your future (like Alfaro) playing during a playoff run, even if it isnt ultimately successful. Ramos is an upgrade, but I am not sure it is really good planning, I would rather see Alfaro out there getting experience in games that actually matter. But really that is nit picking, I think we would have all said just doing standing watching in September was more than we expected.

[andyb]

I don't think I ever bought into the argument with Machado that playing in Philly for 2 months would have made a substantive difference in signing him. Same goes with Ramos. We might be interested. But would have been interested regardless. FWIW I think Ramos will want more money and years than it might make sense for the Phillies. Plus, with Ramos' bat and injury history the DH league might be a way for him to catch 100 games and DH 50 more. There are few catchers with offense good enough to regularly DH but Ramos is one of them at this point in his career.

[Austinfan]

The advantage for the Phillies with Ramos is they get to see his interact with Alfaro and whether he'd be a good fit in a mentor role.

[David_Criss]

Give me Ramos and Alfaro over Alfaro and Knapp.

[mdougherty12]

Yasmani Grandal is also set to be a free agent as of now.

[zambonir]

I know it's all hindsight but I really am of the opinion that the Phillies may have screwed with a good thing in pursuit of this short-term playoff opportunity. They are now 12-17 since they started making trades. I am pretty sure they could have maintained that same pace w/o Cabrera, Ramos and Bour (and Bautista). But I hope to still be proven wrong, whether because the new guys still make more of a difference or the other vets still get hot. In hindsight it also appears they addressed the wrong things. They've added four bats but didn't improve the defense or pursue a bigger bullpen upgrade. Not getting a starter I can understand as they have plenty of options to ease the workload in September (if that includes a healthy and effective Eickhoff that would be especially good news) but obviously if they'd gotten Hamels or someone similar they'd probably have a couple of more wins now too.

I guess my issue is the half-measures. They could have just stuck with the development, and failing or succeeding to make the post-season would be a learning experience. But if they were going to turn over 25% of the starting 8 and 20% of the 25-man, they could have done more.

Ramos will be interesting. Bob Brookover (wrongly, IMO) predicts he won't even rate a two-year $20 million deal given his current salary and injury history, but we shall see.

[andyb]

Ramos will be interesting. Bob Brookover (wrongly, IMO) predicts he won't even rate a two-year $20 million deal given his current salary and injury history, but we shall see.

Agree that Brookover is wrong there. He was basing Ramos' future contract on his past contract which was signed just after he tore his ACL and it was unknown how well he would come back. And knowing he would miss the first part of his first season.

Maybe Ramos' injury history means he won't quite get $20 million a year, but I have to think $15 million for 2-3 years (with some sort of option on the 3rd year) is the floor. He will not have compensation attached either. A short term high AAV contract seems pretty likely a good fit for him.

[flyers19rw]

Z, basically, I am in agreement with you. Neither Cabrera, Bour, or Joey Bats has or will offer more to this club this season that Quinn. Acquiring Ramos was a different situation. He does bring leadership and skill to the lineup and hopefully can be signed long term to be paired with Alfaro. Perhaps the Phillies will pick up another upgrade before Sept. 1 and release Bats or Cabrera. If he is healthy, Eichoff will come up on Saturday and will help the pitching situation. Probably a better add than Gio who has not had the best of years.
Right now my greatest concern is playing the guys that are not going to commit crazy gaffes in the field or on the bases. The Keystone Kops play that has become the hallmark of this year's Phillies is embarrassing and unacceptable. Watching this club blow the POs because of it is sad. Giving up two, three or more unearned runs a game is too much for even the '27 Yankees to overcome. It needs to stop.

[EDmuch]

Well Joey Bats added something to tonite's win. Two possible trends that I see developing over these last 30 games is that two starters, Herenadez and Herrera, may be losing their grip on their respective starting positions come next year.

[ButlerBulldog]

Well Joey Bats added something to tonite's win. Two possible trends that I see developing over these last 30 games is that two starters, Herenadez and Herrera, may be losing their grip on their respective starting positions come next year.

Hernandez has been awful ever since he was hit in the foot. I can understand him wanting to play, but if he’s injured more seriously than he’s letting on, then he needs to sit down, as he’s not helping the club. I don’t know that he’s in danger of losing his starting spot to Kingery, but it does appear as though he’ll be splitting time with Scott next season, especially if Machado signs. For all of his struggles this season, Kingery has recently shown some signs he’s improving, and his defense this evening was terrific.

Herrera’s situation is more ambiguous. Quinn is probably most valuable as a fourth outfielder—at least until he proves he can stay healthy—but Herrera’s struggles and defensive regression have diminished his value to the ballclub and necessitated Quinn being used more often. When he’s on, Odubel’s probably the Phillies’ best hitter, but he hasn’t been right since early June. If Santana is moved, Herrera probably shifts to LF, with Hoskins moving back to 1B. However, if Santana stays, Herrera may be the odd man out.

[andyb]

Move Hoskins back to first. Give Kingery the 2B job. Hope Crawford wins the SS job. Put Quinn in CF.

That is potentially still the team of the future. Much improved defense and fit the other parts around that (and happy to have Machado at SS instead of Crawford who can be a supersub).

Tonight was fun to watch, though probably not sustainable in any sort of future. It did show some of the assets this team has though. And Hunter might end up being a plus signing. He has had consistently good stuff all year but has had a combination of poor luck and occasional bad command. He is durable though and likely more consistent than just about any reliever we have.

[ButlerBulldog]

Move Hoskins back to first. Give Kingery the 2B job. Hope Crawford wins the SS job. Put Quinn in CF.

I don’t know that I’d give Kingery the 2B job, but if I’m Kapler/Klentak, during exit interviews, I’m telling Hernandez that he’s going to be platooning with Kingery at the start of Spring Training and that he needs to play better than he did in the second half. Otherwise, he’ll lose time to Kingery (and perhaps Crawford, too).

Has Crawford played any 3B at LHV? I’d be interested in seeing if he can play there occasionally, especially if Machado signs. Franco has played much better over the past few months, but he’s never going to be more than an average defensive player. If Crawford can be a super-utility player, he can be a valuable part of the club by rotating through three different positions as needed.

In case there’s any doubt, I’ve had enough of Cabrera. He can go back to Queens tomorrow, as he hasn’t added anything to the team offensively, and his defense is mediocre. Plus, I’m hearing rumblings that he’s brought the Mets’ culture with him into the Phillies’ clubhouse, something this young team doesn’t need.

I’ve already shared my thoughts about Herrera, whom I would prefer the Phillies keep, though I don’t know if they can justify his being on the roster if he’s going to steal at-bats from Quinn.

[zambonir]

I’m hearing rumblings that he’s brought the Mets’ culture with him into the Phillies’ clubhouse, something this young team doesn’t need.

What does that mean, really, and who is rumbling? Plus, the biggest problem with the Mets culture is the Wilpon family.

[mdougherty12]

Move Hoskins back to first. Give Kingery the 2B job. Hope Crawford wins the SS job. Put Quinn in CF.

I don’t know that I’d give Kingery the 2B job, but if I’m Kapler/Klentak, during exit interviews, I’m telling Hernandez that he’s going to be platooning with Kingery at the start of Spring Training and that he needs to play better than he did in the second half. Otherwise, he’ll lose time to Kingery (and perhaps Crawford, too).

Has Crawford played any 3B at LHV? I’d be interested in seeing if he can play there occasionally, especially if Machado signs. Franco has played much better over the past few months, but he’s never going to be more than an average defensive player. If Crawford can be a super-utility player, he can be a valuable part of the club by rotating through three different positions as needed.

In case there’s any doubt, I’ve had enough of Cabrera. He can go back to Queens tomorrow, as he hasn’t added anything to the team offensively, and his defense is mediocre. Plus, I’m hearing rumblings that he’s brought the Mets’ culture with him into the Phillies’ clubhouse, something this young team doesn’t need.

I’ve already shared my thoughts about Herrera, whom I would prefer the Phillies keep, though I don’t know if they can justify his being on the roster if he’s going to steal at-bats from Quinn.

Franco was great offensively in July. His August numbers are more or less indistinguishable from all of his other non-July months in 2018

[zambonir]

The point of this season was to find out who's worth keeping. That work is not entirely done, but (assuming a free agent or two) they're not gonna keep everyone. Anyone not named Rhys is theoretically available or expendable. If they sign Machado Hernandez is probably gone, or at the very least, Crawford is (but yes, he is also an option for a 3B platoon).

But of all the players who have had poor second halves or Augusts, Hernandez is probably the least concerning. We know he was hurt, and on his worst day his OBP (.330 in August) is still the same or better than four other starters on a normal day. He is what he is and you move on from him because he's not going to get better or cheaper. But you do move on, if you want Kingery to primarily play 2B.

Truth is unless they get really aggressive (whether that means moving on from Santana or trading Herrera) next year is going to feel transitional still. Can Quinn play every day? Can Herrera bounce back? Can Williams hit well enough to compensate for his poor defense and lower OBP? If not Franco (or Kingery or Crawford) who plays 3B? Machado? Who's the starting catcher? Will they trade for a more reliable 3rd or 4th starter?

They need some 3-4 WAR players and nobody currently here looks like one (including Hoskins as a LF and Quinn because you can't assume he'll get enough games). Herrera still probably has a better chance of being one again if he can improve both his offense and defense. Hernandez is gonna fall short this year.

Some of it may fall on the front office, whatever the reason - shift, other positioning, instruction, the overall talent line-up - they have managed to make nearly every player worse defensively, even the ones who used to be acceptable or better.