Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

[Philsmania]

Dumping Asher (an assumption as so many of these single PTBNL trades are settled for $25K) less of a surprise than releasing Coughlin.

I would agree. All along, it seemed as though Coughlan was a shoe-in. As for Asher, he probably was expendable. I would have said the same thing about Goedel if they traded him too. Both have been passed on the depth chart.

[Lawman]

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

[Lawman]

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

[Austinfan]

Murray has a shot down the road, maybe Milner as a LOOGY, the other two, forget about it.

[zambonir]

I would say that ordinarily we could expect to see most of those relievers, but only if there ends up being open 40 space in-season.

If the Asher trade really does take a long time to complete, it might be contingent - higher return if he spends time on the major league roster, lesser return if he hasn't been called up, chump change (literally) if he gets suspended again.

[schillingfan]

Bullpen arms are different animals, we've see lots of young RPs flame out, and veterans rebound and pitch well into their 30s.So my attitude toward the pen is 3 year horizons and 1 year deals, that is, safety in numbers and never assume a RP will give you a long career (Papelpon, for all his faults, was one of the few who held up for the long-term).

I completely agree with this, which is why I call relief pitchers fungible. Yes a relief pitcher could have a great year, but then he's likely to suck for the next two and then have a good year. I don't think there are any studies which show factors that can predict relief pitcher performance. May as well flip a coin.

[bkeich]

Part of what makes Relievers seem so "fungible" is expectations and SSS effects. There was a reliever with the Phils a few years ago that about halfway through the season had an ERA of 2.10 or so and discussion was he was having a nice, but not great season. When I looked at his game states he was having a legendary year, he had 1 game he gave up 5 ER in, in the other 27 games he pitched in he gave up nothing.

ERA is a poor stat for relievers, because one, possibly meaningless bad day can really screw up an ERA of a guy who oly pitches 70 innings or so. I am unaware of a good stat, but games without giving up a run seems like a good stat (maybe only giving half credit for games of < 1 innning, or something like that).

Great relievers are pretty consistent, but they are rare.
Very good relievers are also reasonably consistent. Ryan Madison was a solid, consistent reliever for us for years.

Most relievers are guys that have 2 pitches, 1 of which may be above average (often FB). The problem with that is that if you only have 1 above average pitch, well some guys are adept at hitting just 1 pitch really well. Thing about Ryan Howard in his prime, you could have put the best FB pitcher in the league out there against him and he stood a pretty good chance of hitting it 450 feet if he knew it was coming, no matter how fast. There are some hitters that you HAVE to avoid 1 pitch with, and if that pitch is your only good pitch then things look very ugly.

[Squire]

We're winning 108 games this year.

[andyb]

Definitely agree with the SSS logic on relievers. A huge part of their variability is the small sample size.

Look at Nola's spring, for instance. His ERA is awful. But from all reports his velocity has rebounded to what he was when he was healthy. Then look at his 24/7 K/BB ratio. That is really good, which suggests he is just getting unlucky this spring.

Nola obviously has to stay healthy, but the small observational things this spring on velocity and bat-missing stuff and control all suggest he IS healthy. Obviously a pitcher needs command to be successful, but I also know that Nola has shown great command in larger sample sizes.

So SSS people might conclude Nola is a potential problem from his Spring stats. I conclude he is a buy low fantasy starter candidate.

[zambonir]

In the end most relievers aren't as good as starters, in some cases because they have fewer (but still useful) skills). In terms of sample size, you can probably evaluate both the same, it's just that a reliever needs three seasons to produce the same number of innings.

But, the game has changed quite a bit since we first started talking about fungibles (or even sample sizes). The talent being devoted to relief pitching is higher. Analytics for high-leverage innings/situations, and analytics which say nearly all starters decline the third time through the order, means your 7th or even 6th inning guy can be a lot more important than he used to be. The old wisdom of "chase the starter, get to the bullpen" is nearly gone in this high-strikeout (and high-strikeout relief pitcher) age.

The Phillies, however, aren't good enough for any of these things to matter yet. They just need guys to fill the innings and not totally stink (ideally).

Even for the good teams that is true probably 75% of the time. It's those big games and big innings where the margins are thinner that matter (same as it does for a closer who blows five saves vs. a closer who blows two, even if it was just luck).

[andyb]

It is true that most relievers are not as good as starters. I also think that people have realized that you can develop that pitcher with fewer skills into situational stats that are better than a starter. The starter who has a 4.00 ERA for 190 innings is more valuable than the reliever with a 3.00 ERA for 65 innings because there are not enough pitching slots on a staff to throw 9 guys every single game.

Relievers can throw harder for 1 inning than starters can for 6 or 7. Relievers also need fewer pitches because they only go through a lineup once. This is part of the reason some relievers might start to get hit at the end of a 7-game playoff series because they have faced the lineup too often (not necessarily that they are tied).

So I think it is more complicated than getting analytics for high leverage situations to make relievers appear more valuable than their number of innings. Generally they are probably less valuable than their number of innings simply because the ability to pitch effectively over lots of innings (even if effective is a 4.00 ERA) is underrated. The reliever job is just easier than the starting job. Thus less talented pitchers might appear to be good in SSS stats sometimes.

[bkeich]

We're winning 108 games this year.

In related news, Squire has changed the season to 400 games.

[Austinfan]

Analytics like FIP, etc. are much better for RP than ERA, because bad luck can really skew ERA, but individual outcomes used to produce these analytics (hits, walks, Ks, BABIP) will be more stable. WIth starters, the sample becomes large enough that you get more convergence.

Nice to see Hoskins still in camp, the kid can hit, I think he's gonna have a big year in Lehigh, problem is I think Joseph is going to have a big year in Philadelphia. What an awful problem to have. Surplus talent!

I think Stassi and Nava are both going to make the team, though Nava might be trade bait as a bench player for a contender.

If Lehigh doesn't dominate the International League Allstar game something is seriously wrong - because they start the season with a ML caliber prospect at 7 of 8 positions (excluding 3B), all 5 starters, and maybe even a couple BP guys.

[Philsmania]

Murray has a shot down the road, maybe Milner as a LOOGY, the other two, forget about it.

Murray had a fantastic spring. Franzke and LA talked about that fact a good deal last night. Who knows, maybe a light's gone on with him.

[DurhamBull]

I know spring training games don't count, but the Phils won both of their split squad games today by a score of 8-2. They beat a couple of bums named Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Home runs from Perkins, Franco, Altherr, Nava, Stassi, and Hoskins.

[phillychuck]

There's very good video on the phillies.com site today showing all the HRs and some other plays. Worth clicking to see.

[Austinfan]

I think we can stop worrying about power.

Altherr looks like he's 100%, and trust me, he'll take over one of the corner spots by June if he is, between his power and his plus plus fielding, it'll be a done deal.
Franco, Joseph, Rupp, that's a nice trio. And the way Stassi is pounding, I suspect he makes the team and gets some LF starts.

And in AAA, Alfaro, Hoskins, Cozens, Williams, some horsehide is gonna be in the stands this year in Lehigh.

[LoneStarPhan]

Yes, great offense today. Getting 8 runs on 13 hits is good news; doing it two times the same day is very good.

I may well be wrong, but I'm optimistic going into this season. Probably not going to win over a hundred, but I'm hoping to see them get 81.

[Austinfan]

I think the difference this year (and hopefully going forward), when the inevitable injuries and off years occur, the reinforcements available from Lehigh will prevent the August swoon that kills the season for young, thin teams. Other than 3B, there's someone in place to step in and pick up the slack at every position and the starting pitchers.

[andyb]

Rodriguez and Morgan get the bullpen spots. Good move to have 2 LHP on an all right-handed staff IMO. 2 bench slots among Stassi, Nava, and Valentin still TBD. Is it worth a slightly better bat in Nava to risk losing Garcia? IMO No. I'd go with Stassi and Valentin here even though Valentin could easily shuttle back and forth at times to get some AAA at bats.

Adam Morgan, Joely Rodriguez win final Phillies' bullpen jobs