Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

[David_Criss]

To me, the final cuts seem pretty easy to project and should be done now. Florimon goes to AAA to play 3B unless the Phillies move Goedell to AAA to play 3B, but I'm not the GM. Colton Murray has had a great Spring, but send him to AAA and if Garcia doesn't live up to the hype - there is your flip. Nava has had a GREAT Spring, but Stassi and Coghlan beat him out. Does he play at AAA? If so, where? I didn't quite get it when Valentin was added to the 40-man, but he has shown this Spring he could be a utility guy or everyday 2B - perhaps he was brought in hoping they could trade Hernandez or to push Hernandez to not slack. Who knows? But he goes to AAA to play everyday. Morgan has done great and it is a coin toss imo between he and Rodriquez, but I send him to AAA to pitch in the pen, which is not something he has done before this Spring. Guess he won't be the Randy Wolf clone we had hoped for. C. Ramos and Venditte haven't pitched well enough to unseat an arm on the 40-man. And Asher should be a starter, unless he becomes your next Ryan Madson, which I guess is what they envision him as.

Just my thoughts leaving Blanco, Altherr, Coghlan, Stassi and Knapp on the bench and Garcia and Rodriquez as the final two arms in the pen.

But who gets cut from the 40-man? Does Eflin start on the DL? Where does Perkins play with Williams, Quinn and Cozens in the AAA OF? Your AAA rotation is impressive with Thompson, Lively, Appel, Pivetta and please keep Asher in the rotation. The pen has the 4 M's in Morgan, Murray, Mariot and Milner with Hinojosa and Leiter.

[Lawman]

Coghlan has been released.

[julio]

Phillies (Phillies)

[Lawman]

Jim Salisbury (JSalisburyCSN)

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

[andyb]

There is regression to the mean in all these ranking so I would not put too much into that. Also some scouts doubt the UZR components of his defensive rankings to the point where legitimately more data might be needed to know if he is above average in CF.

[andyb]

Stassi could clearly be in play, but I imagine the Phillies still prefer to use a trade to get someone to fill the bench spot instead of waiving a pitcher they would then lose.

I am really curious as to what they think of Valentin here. He did get lots of AB in Puerto Rico so the team may feel he does not really need any more AAA seasoning.

[tom81]

There is regression to the mean in all these ranking so I would not put too much into that

Regression To what mean? The mean including his teenage years? The mean of his last three years exceeds those projections. He is also a young player and many of them actually put up far greater numbers after their sophmore slump year.

[julio]

As has been noted, if they see him as a utility infielder, rather than as a starting second baseman, they could have concluded there's not much to be gained by sending him back to AAA.

[andyb]

There is regression to the mean in all these ranking so I would not put too much into that

Regression To what mean? The mean including his teenage years? The mean of his last three years exceeds those projections. He is also a young player and many of them actually put up far greater numbers after their sophmore slump yea

They are probably considering his entire minor league career and I think there are some non-numerical scouting assessments that go with the defensive ratings. You'll have to dive into their methodology here but there is no giant conspiracy. EVERYBODY regresses to the mean. Mike Trout was over 9 WAR the last 2 years and is at 8.2 here at age 25.

With Herrera it is the shorter track record most likely and the defense did go from great (2015) to merely good (2016). They also don't seem to be buying the increased walk rate so there is probably some 2nd half emphasis on their formula.

In general I agree he is probably a little better than their projections, but I also kind of think our best longer-term defensive alignment will end up being Herrera in LF and Quinn in CF with Altherr or Williams in RF.

[tom81]

I agree with your defensive observations including what may be our long term alignmdnt. I think Herrera's offensive projections are understated and their model not correct, but that is just my opinion.

[Squire]

Phillies just traded RHP Alec Asher to the Baltimore Orioles for a PTBNL to open a 40 man roster spot.

[allentown]

Dumping Asher (an assumption as so many of these single PTBNL trades are settled for $25K) less of a surprise than releasing Coughlin.

[andyb]

This feels more like it is a non-40 man prospect to me. Not a great one, but at least someone who is at least worth noticing. Asher does have some value. We just had too much depth to keep him.

[Austinfan]

They should probably get a solid A ball prospect for Asher, who has already has ML success, so that a team that wants to build AAA pitching depth would consider him a good developmental candidate.
Of course, Klentak may have also traded him for a "favor to be named later," given his prior relationship with the Orioles.

[zambonir]

I would think so too, I can't imagine they'd dump Asher for nothing just to keep Garcia, even if they think Garcia will help the major league team more right now. Sounds like they are not done though.

[David_Criss]

Do we know the deadline for selecting the PTBN? Asher should fetch one or two decent A/AA players who don't have to be protected this year? Young pitchers with decent numbers in the minors and in a couple cups of coffee are not a dime a dozen. But this clears up just one spot - is it Nava or Stassi?

Can Eflin go to the 60-day to buy more Garcia evaluation time, since they seemed determined to keep him? If Goeddel is going to be protected and kept, I'd like to see him play 3B, which is what he was originally drafted as. He has been passed up in the outfield much like Asher has been by other prospects.

With Coghlan being dumped, they maybe looking for another super sub guy, which doesn't bode well for Stassi or Nava. Perhaps this was trade opens the spot for someone in another camp.

[Austinfan]

Given Klentak's Oriole connections, I don't think there's a deadline issue, it could be a handshake deal among friends.
Most likely, they'll give him a list of 3 or 4 A ball prospects to choose from at some point. Probably general agreement, maybe he gets to see them play for a month or two before making a decision.

[zambonir]

The writers seem to think Stassi is in but I would agree they are still going to find a 5th OF if they don't take Nava too. Then again, if Coghlan's ability to play 2B and 3B was that important, they could go with Valentin (who can play SS and 2B, while Blanco can and frequently did play 3B).

Plus you've got Kendrick, you could play Stassi or Altherr in LF in a pinch. What they wouldn't have is a second OF who could ever play CF or RF (but I don't know that Nava can do that especially well at this point either).

I bet the Phillies get their player at the end of spring training, will be given the list once the Orioles have sorted & shuffled their own minor league rosters.

[julio]

Do we know the deadline for selecting the PTBN?

The general rule is that a trade must be completed (e.g., PTBNL or cash transferred) within six months - so don't hold your breath.

[julio]

My guess is that they're just about done - that the bench is:

C2 - Knapp
INF - Blanco
INF - Valentin
OF - Altherr
I/O - Stassi

Could be Nava instead of Stassi - but Stassi's the org's guy, he's seven years younger, he's had the better spring. Opting for Nava sends all the wrong messages, IMHO.