Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[donaldorc]

The tea leaves appear to be saying Alfaro will eventually be the starting catcher:
philly.com/philly/sports/201 ... tcher.html

Of course the article says Alfaro will be in AAA and Rupp should have a veteran backup to start the year (not Knapp). But it is also not super positive to Rupp, criticizing his defense and handling of pitchers. If "he does those things he can be a number one catcher". As I said, those are the statements of a team that really wants Alfaro to catch sooner than later. I think they are angling for a midseason deal next year from the tone.

I liked how the article praised Alfaro's work ethic.

[Philsmania]

The tea leaves appear to be saying Alfaro will eventually be the starting catcher:
philly.com/philly/sports/201 ... tcher.html

Of course the article says Alfaro will be in AAA and Rupp should have a veteran backup to start the year (not Knapp). But it is also not super positive to Rupp, criticizing his defense and handling of pitchers. If "he does those things he can be a number one catcher". As I said, those are the statements of a team that really wants Alfaro to catch sooner than later. I think they are angling for a midseason deal next year from the tone.

I would like to see what they can get for Knapp this winter. He's just squeezed from both above and below. They could move him to first but then there's Stassi and Hoskins to contend with.

[andyb]

The tea leaves appear to be saying Alfaro will eventually be the starting catcher:
philly.com/philly/sports/201 ... tcher.html

Of course the article says Alfaro will be in AAA and Rupp should have a veteran backup to start the year (not Knapp). But it is also not super positive to Rupp, criticizing his defense and handling of pitchers. If "he does those things he can be a number one catcher". As I said, those are the statements of a team that really wants Alfaro to catch sooner than later. I think they are angling for a midseason deal next year from the tone.

I liked how the article praised Alfaro's work ethic.

I think Alfaro's work ethic has been universally praised over the years. It has just taken him a long time to learn the nuances of catching. He was not a catcher before he was signed out of Colombia, so while he has now had 7 years to learn the position he did start a bit behind.

I was more taken with the unnecessary shots at Rupp in the article. He is an average defensive player at catcher. There is no question he is a number one catcher in the majors in my mind. That is completely independent of thinking Alfaro might be better. This is exactly the wrong thing to say also if you are thinking of trading him at some point in the future which they clearly are.

[Philsmania]

I know McCutcheon's name has come up on a couple of occasions here. The below article talks about whether the Pirates should or might try to trade McCutcheon this offseason, about 2/3 of the way through the article. Though he had an offseason, he did rally toward the end, possibly enhancing his value in the eyes of many in Pittsburgh. Plus, Meadows may not be ready just yet. Hence, it may take more than just Knapp and a pitching prospect to get him.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/offseason-outlook-pittsburgh-pirates-7.html

[David_Criss]

I would like to see what they can get for Knapp this winter. He's just squeezed from both above and below. They could move him to first but then there's Stassi and Hoskins to contend with.

Stassi could fill the Ryan Howard role next year (left handed compliment to Joseph at first). Having the two of them competing wouldn't be the worst thing for them or the team.

If Knapp learns first, having someone who can fill in at both positions would be nice. Knowing there is a third catching option, could give them a lot more flexibility in substitutions, etc.

[andyb]

I would like to see what they can get for Knapp this winter. He's just squeezed from both above and below. They could move him to first but then there's Stassi and Hoskins to contend with.

Stassi could fill the Ryan Howard role next year (left handed compliment to Joseph at first). Having the two of them competing wouldn't be the worst thing for them or the team.

If Knapp learns first, having someone who can fill in at both positions would be nice. Knowing there is a third catching option, could give them a lot more flexibility in substitutions, etc.

If Knapp makes the team it has to be as a backup catcher. Probably does not have the offense you want at 1B. Not sure Stassi does either at his age. With Knapp the 1B is as much about Alfaro deserving the starting job at catcher because he is a better prospect. Personally I like the idea of Knapp as a backup catcher but I can also see the Phillies being hesitant about it.

If the team does not sign a more expensive LH power bat I have no problem letting Stassi compete for a bench role. I'd probably bring in 1 or 2 other AAAA options and make him compete for it as I am not sold on whether Stassi is anything more than an older guy succeeding against younger players.

Hoskins is a much more serious contender for 1B playing time eventually. And since both he and Joseph are right handed there is really only one spot for the two of them in the organization in a year.

[Austinfan]

Knapp would have to play some 1B in Lehigh before they'd want him in the role in the majors.
Stassi is a plus defender at 1B, and could be a LH PH, depends on who they add this winter, a LH OF who might be able to fill in at 1B is probably their priority signing(s).
Hoskins will play at Lehigh, and they'll watch him and Joseph and see how they project as the long-term answer - the other will be packaged in a trade next winter.

[andyb]

What they should do is give Knapp a chance to win the backup catcher's job. He has played 1B in the past so it would not take much practice also for him to play a bit there though that is really not a priority. At the moment Knapp does not have a good enough bat for 1B - maybe he will in the future but not now.

I just hate the baseball definition of the priorities desirable in a backup catcher. Too often it leads to signing guys like Ellis who can no longer play. Knapp could get 60 starts and 250 at bats easily if he played well as a backup catcher. Of course he needs to be adequate defensively, but from the reviews at AAA he has done that. His caught stealing percentage is as good as Rupp's was in the minors and that was supposed to be the weak part of his game. A preference for veterans can be a problem if you ignore performance.

Knapp may never be more than a backup catcher. Might as well let him play that role now if you are sold on both Rupp and Alfaro being better than him. He also may have a decent bat for a catcher however. On an offensively challenged roster that is not necessarily a bad thing.

[zambonir]

It just seems like their issue is with Rupp, not Knapp. Right or wrong they still think Rupp is too young and not quite able/ready to step into the role Chooch (and then Ellis) played leading the pitcher meetings. We are just not privy to that end of the job, or, possibly, their analytics, but it's obviously about more than just what we can see (on both the field and the stat sheet).

If they were to go out and sign a veteran starting catcher, Knapp would probably be the back-up, and if he did well enough, get as many as 80 starts.

I still think a trade of either Rupp or Knapp is likely, but they could also keep Knapp, sign a fringier veteran catcher (not that Ellis isn't pretty fringe at this point) and see how it shakes out. Given it's a high-injury position, burying Knapp in AAA as the back-up/DH (if he can't beat out the vet) for at least a half-season wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But all reports are they just aren't willing to go with two young catchers, and that has to be about the pitching staff as much as the catching position itself.

[andyb]

The small upside of signing Ellis is that it will be a 1-year deal for a modest amount that they really don't care about. Ellis may be most valuable as an extra "coach" in spring training and they could easily release him if he were hitting .180 in June and Knapp was ready.

You are right that Rupp is the larger question. That article implied the Phillies think Alfaro is better. While I think Crawford would do just fine in the majors now I don't think Alfaro is there yet. I really would have loved to see them swap him and Knapp this past season halfway through to give Alfaro a look at AAA pitching. He might be really close to being ready. It is just hard to tell.

[allentown]

What they should do is give Knapp a chance to win the backup catcher's job. He has played 1B in the past so it would not take much practice also for him to play a bit there though that is really not a priority. At the moment Knapp does not have a good enough bat for 1B - maybe he will in the future but not now.

I just hate the baseball definition of the priorities desirable in a backup catcher. Too often it leads to signing guys like Ellis who can no longer play. Knapp could get 60 starts and 250 at bats easily if he played well as a backup catcher. Of course he needs to be adequate defensively, but from the reviews at AAA he has done that. His caught stealing percentage is as good as Rupp's was in the minors and that was supposed to be the weak part of his game. A preference for veterans can be a problem if you ignore performance.

Knapp may never be more than a backup catcher. Might as well let him play that role now if you are sold on both Rupp and Alfaro being better than him. He also may have a decent bat for a catcher however. On an offensively challenged roster that is not necessarily a bad thing.

Agree 100%. If they need an older catcher to help out the young pitchers and catchers then they should find a guy slightly older than Ruiz and Ellis and make him a higher paid coach, even if it is an out-of-uniform coach.

[Philsmania]

Knapp would have to play some 1B in Lehigh before they'd want him in the role in the majors.
Stassi is a plus defender at 1B, and could be a LH PH, depends on who they add this winter, a LH OF who might be able to fill in at 1B is probably their priority signing(s).
Hoskins will play at Lehigh, and they'll watch him and Joseph and see how they project as the long-term answer - the other will be packaged in a trade next winter.

Still, I keep getting back to thinking that Knapp may end up getting in someone's way, if not Alfaro then Hoskins. Perhaps it's premature to say this but he just might be the odd man out.

[Philsmania]

Pete never censors himself, this is nothing new. But he's not stupid either. If he believed challenging Rupp publicly had a negative effect he probably wouldn't do it. That doesn't mean his belief is correct.

But I think some are too quick to view every little analytical discussion of a player's weaknesses as insulting, or "throwing someone under the bus." As a fan, I enjoy hearing, from the manager or front office, what is essentially a version of what's being said in team meetings and internal scouting reports. Tone, and what the manager is saying to the player behind the scenes, also counts for a lot. (Bowa, for instance, had trouble with tone.)

It has come up often enough w/ Rupp that they (the GM included) must think he still isn't putting in enough time to improve where they want him too. The "stick" approach is fairly recent so maybe he was getting the "carrot" up until this season. And they obviously think he can't work in improving his own game while mentoring pitchers (or another catcher) at the same time. We heard how hands-on Ellis was in the bullpen and the film room once he got here.

You gotta wonder if they'll make a run at bringing Chooch back, should Ellis not re-sign.

I would agree that some seem to think there should be an ironclad "Thou shall not publicly criticize your own players" rule. That goes to something of an extreme, in my view. While some things are best left behind closed doors, at the same time, fans are "investors" in a small way and letting them know what management believes players need to work on (constructive criticism) is not unfair to the fans.

[zambonir]

The small upside of signing Ellis is that it will be a 1-year deal for a modest amount that they really don't care about. Ellis may be most valuable as an extra "coach" in spring training and they could easily release him if he were hitting .180 in June and Knapp was ready.

You are right that Rupp is the larger question. That article implied the Phillies think Alfaro is better. While I think Crawford would do just fine in the majors now I don't think Alfaro is there yet. I really would have loved to see them swap him and Knapp this past season halfway through to give Alfaro a look at AAA pitching. He might be really close to being ready. It is just hard to tell.

If they'd been eager to promote him to the majors I'm sure they would have gotten him up to AAA, obviously they are in no rush (about anything). Presumably preferred to keep him with Wathan too. If they believe Rupp can still improve, everybody wins if he does so.

We'll see what kind of value Ellis has (or thinks he has). He may still want to catch on with a contender. He'll be taking a pay cut but I don't think the Phillies will lowball him, probably at least $2 million which is still not that much (Nievers made 1.25 three years ago, and salaries rise).

[allentown]

Pete never censors himself, this is nothing new. But he's not stupid either. If he believed challenging Rupp publicly had a negative effect he probably wouldn't do it. That doesn't mean his belief is correct.

But I think some are too quick to view every little analytical discussion of a player's weaknesses as insulting, or "throwing someone under the bus." As a fan, I enjoy hearing, from the manager or front office, what is essentially a version of what's being said in team meetings and internal scouting reports. Tone, and what the manager is saying to the player behind the scenes, also counts for a lot. (Bowa, for instance, had trouble with tone.)

It has come up often enough w/ Rupp that they (the GM included) must think he still isn't putting in enough time to improve where they want him too. The "stick" approach is fairly recent so maybe he was getting the "carrot" up until this season. And they obviously think he can't work in improving his own game while mentoring pitchers (or another catcher) at the same time. We heard how hands-on Ellis was in the bullpen and the film room once he got here.

You gotta wonder if they'll make a run at bringing Chooch back, should Ellis not re-sign.

I would agree that some seem to think there should be an ironclad "Thou shall not publicly criticize your own players" rule. That goes to something of an extreme, in my view. While some things are best left behind closed doors, at the same time, fans are "investors" in a small way and letting them know what management believes players need to work on (constructive criticism) is not unfair to the fans.

It can be unfair to the fans if it has an adverse impact on a player's trade value, development, or performance. It is very unfair to the players. I think many of us are investors in corporate stocks and receive annual reports. I've never read in an annual report about areas in which the CEO or board think the CEO and his direct reports need to improve their performance, skills, or education. There is a ton of literature on what works in motivating employees to perform well, to improve their skills and education, and to change harmful behaviors. Public and peer embarrassment are not approaches which are seen as beneficial. It harms the organization to use such techniques.

I think Pete's comments are totally uncalled for and counterproductive. I'm not at all sure that they are even remotely true. There were a lot of good pitching performances turned in with Rupp behind the plate. He certainly is head-and-shoulder atop our other MLB catchers in offense. Ruiz had a productive 2016 and may have a shot at being a positive WAR player in 2017. Although younger than Ruiz, Ellis was a negative WAR player this season.

[Austinfan]

I'm sure if you go back you'll find some complaints from the veteran pitchers about Cooch's pitch calling his first couple seasons.
But it doesn't seem that Rupp was doing anything egregious.
While he doesn't have Alfaro's arm, he has a plus arm, and the base stealing is primarily the fault of a young rotation that haven't polished their mvoes to first.

[zambonir]

There is a ton of literature on what works in motivating employees to perform well, to improve their skills and education, and to change harmful behaviors. Public and peer embarrassment are not approaches which are seen as beneficial. It harms the organization to use such techniques.

What you are really talking about here is the new leading edge of baseball analytics, teams are becoming more and more interested in trying to quantify, or at least codify, motivation, chemistry and group dynamics. If the above is true, you could also argue that an upbeat manager who isn't that good at tactics is still a net positive (i.e., Charlie) just like a great defensive player who can't hit.

Of course, isn't it part of Phillies' lore that they won the 1980 WS because they all hated Dallas? That's a hard myth to shake.

That said, I still think it's mostly much ado about nothing. If the clubhouse overall was not responding to or actually resents Mackanin, that would be bad, and we've certainly seen that before, but I don't think that's the case.

[andyb]

I'm sure if you go back you'll find some complaints from the veteran pitchers about Cooch's pitch calling his first couple seasons.
But it doesn't seem that Rupp was doing anything egregious.
While he doesn't have Alfaro's arm, he has a plus arm, and the base stealing is primarily the fault of a young rotation that haven't polished their mvoes to first.

The criticisms of his defense are that he does not really have a plus arm. He never has had really great CS percentages. Not that Chooch has a great arm either. Chooch was great at limiting the PB and WP and Rupp is clearly behind him there.

Interestingly the pitcher hardest to steal on from the starters was Velasquez this year. Only 2 SB with 4 CS after being much easier to run on last year. Hellickson was the guy that was much easier to run on (10 SB and only 3 CS). Maybe it is Hellickson who has the issues with Rupp's catching.

[zambonir]

My recollection is that the issue was his pitch-calling, and communication with the pitchers. And maybe that is on the pitchers, not giving the younger player enough respect. But Rupp had very clearly won the starting job away from Chooch, and then there was a period where Ruiz started to play more again, and was paired with a few pitchers. It wasn't that major a change in the end though.

This article does put a lot of it on the pitchers.

articles.philly.com/2016-06-27/s ... y-catchers

[David_Criss]

I continue to be amazed at how many times something negative is said about a player in the media. Rupp could be or very well might be the best trade chip the Phillies could play this Winter. So instead of saying he needs to get better at x y z and improve at A B C, how about saying he is still relatively young and honing his craft and will only get better? Then stop talking. If a trade partner has specific concerns about a players' short comings, then that comes up in their discussion on the value when discussing the return.