Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[allentown]

I am divided on protecting Asche. I think there is a role for an inexpensive reserve that can play 4 positions. We are talking Greg Dobbs and Ty Wigginton here so nothing special. Asche probably needs to accept the fact that he is a reserve going forward and really focus on pinch hitting and improving his defense at multiple positions. At age 26 there still could be a bit of improvement left in his bat (not 27 till next June 30th). Not much, but he has one more pre-arbitration year and it is probably worth the $520K to find out. Or he gets sent down to the minors and potentially claimed by another team if it does not work out in the Spring.

Yes our 40-man roster decisions are tougher this year. But I also think some potential options like Garcia, Pinto, and Tirado are worth the risk of exposing them to the draft because they are less likely to stick on a 25-man roster next year. Asche is not that important that I will lose sleep over letting him go, but we will need someone in that bench role. I probably still want to bring in some other additional left-handed bat with power, though that bat could easily be starting in the OF. There are also some other 40-man decisions that could be done before the draft: Ruf, Buchanan, Klein, Mariot, Garcia. The won't drop all of them, but probably one or two. Of course I bet it is greater than 50-50 Blanco comes back as the middle infield reserve.

I think 50-50 that Asche and/or Blanco come back. Them, or a similar AAAA player. As I said about Asche, there is a rightful place for guys like this on an MLB bench. But... these aren't the sort of guys you protect from the Rule 5. The are the sort of guys you invite to ST with an agreement that they are granted their release if not on the MLB roster by 1 May or 1 June. I think if Tirado is not protected, that he is a sure Rule 5 loss. Pinto is a likely loss.

[andyb]

I am divided on protecting Asche. I think there is a role for an inexpensive reserve that can play 4 positions. We are talking Greg Dobbs and Ty Wigginton here so nothing special. Asche probably needs to accept the fact that he is a reserve going forward and really focus on pinch hitting and improving his defense at multiple positions. At age 26 there still could be a bit of improvement left in his bat (not 27 till next June 30th). ** Not much, but he has one more pre-arbitration year**

and it is probably worth the $520K to find out.
No, he doesn't. Asche entered 2016 with 2.062 years service time. By my quick calculation, his service time as of October 2, 2016, is 3.045 years (time on the major-league Dl counts). He's first-year arbitration-eligible this winter.

[quote]Yes our 40-man roster decisions are tougher this year. But I also think some potential options like Garcia, Pinto, and Tirado are worth the risk of exposing them to the draft because they are less likely to stick on a 25-man roster next year. Asche is not that important that I will lose sleep over letting him go, but we will need someone in that bench role. I probably still want to bring in some other additional left-handed bat with power, though that bat could easily be starting in the OF. There are also some other 40-man decisions that could be done before the draft: Ruf, Buchanan, Klein, Mariot, Garcia. The won't drop all of them, but probably one or two. Of course I bet it is greater than 50-50 Blanco comes back as the middle infield reserve.[/quote]

Asche at least has options remaining. Darin Ruf, David Buchanan, Michael Mariot and Luis Garcia do not. This means they'll be waived - if not this fall, then next spring when they don't make the 25-man active roster.

BR did not have the service time updated. He won't be expensive this year anyway if they do go to arbitration with him. Doubt he gets much more than a million either way. Main point is that he is still relatively young and could be useful. Probably not great, but useful. And he is only 26, not 27. Paredes was a year and a half older with similar skills and was not really any better.

[julio]

BR did not have the service time updated.

No, they don't do that until sometime in the winter - it's always "as of January 1st" of the current year. I get there by adding the player's days in the majors, month by month. Asche was in the majors (on the DL for most of the time) until mid-August, then back in September.

[bkeich]

Asche has no upside, his tool was hitting, after > 1000 PA, it's doubtful he's suddenly going to make this quantum jump. He's a below average fielder at 3B, has become average in LF, but has only gap power, and isn't a high OBP guy and lacks speed. So if he doesn't hit .300 with at least a .150 ISO, i.e., .300/.350/.450/.800, he's not starting material.

I'm all for patience with young prospects, but at some point you have to do it on the field, not in the BA top 30 list.

We also need bench players and a player with a .695 OPS (before this season) who can play OF/3B/1B isn't an exciting option, but he would still be inexpensive and isn't a terrible option. Hopefully we can do better, but at the moment we do not have a better option.

No reason to make a move until we need to.

[David_Criss]

Phillies Announce Six Outrights

The Phillies have outrighted six players, per a club announcement. Infielder Emmanuel Burriss, outfielder Jimmy Paredes, lefty Patrick Schuster, and righties Frank Herrmann, Dalier Hinojosa, and Colton Murray all lost their roster spots.

It's a good start, but there are several more I'd outright.
Well, there may be more.

The roster now stands at 34 - but with four additional players on the 60-day DL. After the WS, the 60-day DL guys go back on the roster (moving it to 38), and the free agents/options not picked up come off. There are seven of those (Hellickson, D. Hernandez, Ellis, Blanco, Howard, Bourjos, Morton). That would reduce the roster to 31. (This assumes Morton's option isn't picked up, and Hellickson doesn't accept the QO.)

I've got six no-brainer additions (Appel, Lively, Pivetta, Knapp, Cozens, Williams), which would push the roster to 37. That would expose E. Garcia, Pinto, Therrien, Tirado, and a bunch of others to the Rule 5 draft.

What about Pullin, Perkins or Tocci? The Phillies can still drop Buchanan, Morgan, Araujo, Garcia for 4 more spaces and they will try to re-sign Hellickson and Ellis. And I still don't understand why they just don't release Harrison? Asche and Ruf are still there, too

[Slinging_Southpaw]

For everyone discussing what Cody Asche isn't and will never be, think about these type of comments that were made about Tommy Joseph over the last few years. " title="Confused"/>
Sometimes we're not quite as smart as we think we are.

[Austinfan]

Big difference between Joseph and Asche.

Joseph was coming off two solid minor league campaigns, then had three years of injuries, especially concussions - so in his case we're talking an unknown, we knew he had power, we didn't know if he could hit well enough to handle 1B

Asche has over 1000 ML PA, like D Brown, he got his shot in spades and blew it.

[zambonir]

I'm sure the fact that Asche has an option is appealing to the Phillies, it just depends on many other factors. Probably not so much who we think needs to be protected now, but who gets added to the 40 before the deadline. My guess is the Phillies will make at least one trade and one FA signing before the Rule V deadline, so space will be tight (though a trade or trades could also compress). Last year they got Hellickson beforehand, and also signed Hernandez, claimed Bourjos and had added two other marginal relievers. No room for that kind of activity this year, presumably. But there will be activity.

There's also the Morton question. I would not be in favor of re-signing Blanco early. I'm also assuming there's a modest multi-year deal for him out there. Morton & Hellickson will be sorted out before the rosters have to be set though.

If Asche could just play 2B (if not SS) he'd probably be a keeper. But as a pure corner sub his offense isn't that exciting, and there is surely going to be a new LH bat who can play 1B and LF. In any case, no reason to move on him until after the November meetings, if not right up until the deadline. I believe the Rule V deadline is earlier than the non-tender deadline though.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Big difference between Joseph and Asche.

Joseph was coming off two solid minor league campaigns, then had three years of injuries, especially concussions - so in his case we're talking an unknown, we knew he had power, we didn't know if he could hit well enough to handle 1B

Asche has over 1000 ML PA, like D Brown, he got his shot in spades and blew it.

Many would have said that Jonathan Villar was a wash-out before this season. Asche has an option, they'd be smart to use it.

[julio]

What about Pullin, Perkins or Tocci? The Phillies can still drop Buchanan, Morgan, Araujo, Garcia for 4 more spaces and they will try to re-sign Hellickson and Ellis. And I still don't understand why they just don't release Harrison? Asche and Ruf are still there, too

Andrew Pullin, IMHO, is in the "may be exposed, at some risk" category. He has potential, but can he stick on a 25-man roster for a full season, as an outfielder? Don't know; if it were me, I might well protect him, but I don't see him as certainly on the Phils' list.

Cam Perkins? I don't protect him, and I don't think the Phils do either. There are reasons whey he never got called up this season, and why Jimmy Paredes was acquired instead.

Carlos Tocci? See Andrew Pullin, with a lot more uncertainty. I really don't see anybody burying Tocci on a major-league roster for a season, at this point. We're talking about a .693 OPS in single-A. If he plays well in AA, then sure, he would be at risk, but I see that as a year from now, not this winter. The Phils may disagree; I don't know.

The guys you cut are the guys you're likely going to lose anyway, because you're going to have to expose them to waivers at some point - the guys who won't spend the season on the Active Roster, and who don't have options remaining. That's Buchanan, Garcia, Mariot, Ruf. In the Phils' case, all four of these guys have served their seven-year minor-league purgatory; if they're waived, and not claimed by another team and added to that team's 40-man roster, they are eligible for minor-league free agency. So the long and short is, if any of these guys is not kept on the 25-man roster all season in 2017, that guy is likely gone, gone, gone. Given that none of them has really earned a roster spot...might as well just let 'em go now, as later.

[julio]

Asche has over 1000 ML PA, like D Brown, he got his shot in spades and blew it.

No, Cody Asche didn't "blow it." He has performed pretty much as his scouting reports said he would perform; he was a fourth-round pick out of a major college conference, which is to say he'd been seen a lot by the scouts. To say he "blew it" implies that he could have been something different - and that's purely a function of fans mis-interpreting his early success in the minors (which should be a lesson to those who constantly revise their expectations based on relatively small amounts of data), and deciding that he could be more than the professionals saw there. Asche hit the ceiling the scouts saw, and there he has stayed. No fault there; he is what he is.

What is that? A major-league bench player, with some ability to hit, some ability to field a couple of positions more-or-less adequately, but not enough either way to hold onto a starting job for long. That still gives him a major-league career (he's played most of four seasons, will probably play most of about four or so more - probably one or two as an arbitration player, and then one or two as a non-roster invite who sticks with somebody), and a major-legue pension. That ain't "blowing it."

[Austinfan]

Asche has not hit as well as his minor league performance would have predicted, or as well as he looks at the plate, he actually has good form, he just doesn't hit the ball. I never saw him as a star, but if he hit .270/.330/.420/.750 he'd have a long career as a 4th OF, 3B, 1B, 400 PA a year guy. Not quite good enough to hold a starting job without being a plus fielder, but good enough to be a valuable reserve.

That's why I think he's blown it, he hasn't come close to hitting at that level.

[zambonir]

Asche has not hit as well as his minor league performance would have predicted, or as well as he looks at the plate, he actually has good form, he just doesn't hit the ball. I never saw him as a star, but if he hit .270/.330/.420/.750 he'd have a long career as a 4th OF, 3B, 1B, 400 PA a year guy. Not quite good enough to hold a starting job without being a plus fielder, but good enough to be a valuable reserve.

That's why I think he's blown it, he hasn't come close to hitting at that level.

If he could put up a .750 OPS heprobably would be a starting 3B for someone (and even could have started for the Phillies: that's better than Franco, the same as Rupp and only a bit worse than Hernandez. And also would have been better than the other corner OFs of course). He's nothing special but he has value: just a question of measuring the value of his option against the 40 man spot against replacing him with cheap or minor league free agent who you couldn't option.

If Klentak can include him in a deal, or maybe trade him straight-up for a fringe bullpen piece, he will. But someone in the organization must still like him, because they certainly gave him a lot of opportunities this year (including not filling his roster spot with anybody good while he was injured), even with the demotion.

[phillychuck]

Asche is an interesting casualty of the Phils' current situation. He can't play 2B well enough to even be a reserve there, and he can't hit well enough to play LF (where his defense isn't helping him). The only way he could be a major league regular is to go to a team that has a real hole at 3B and play a couple of healthy years there and work on improving his defense at one position, and on being a bit more consistent at the plate. He hasn't been able to do that in Philly because of his injuries and because the Phils have someone they like better at 3B.

Success is a product of talent and opportunity--players succeed based on both. Unfortunately, Asche has never, and probably will never, have the right opportunity with the Phils. He MIGHT have had the talent had his health and the Phils' situation given him the opportunity to develop. I don't think we'll ever know.

[David_Criss]

I cannot believe how much talk there is on Asche. Hererra is the only lock to start in the OF next year will the other two be Quinn, Altherr, Ruf, Quinn or an acquisition like Desmond or Dyson? No-one knows. I think the only part Asche will be called on to do is to be a bench player - he can fill in for a very brief spell at 2B/1B and 3B/LF and bat left handed. At a pretty cheap salary, not a bad bench option - he isn't being called on to lead the team in anything.

[zambonir]

It's just a question of whether the known short-term quantity of Asche (who will probably be too expensive in 2018) is more valuable than the unknown future of whoever the Phillies lose in the Rule V draft. But we won't know until it happens (assuming they keep Asche to begin with). There's always a lot of belly-aching about players the Phillies don't protect and they are rarely taken, let alone kept, let alone kept and developed into something. I know the system has a lot more talent now but it's still incredibly rare. This is also why the "pass up the insurance on Harrison" scenario will never, and does not need to, happen.

[andyb]

The tea leaves appear to be saying Alfaro will eventually be the starting catcher:
philly.com/philly/sports/201 ... tcher.html

Of course the article says Alfaro will be in AAA and Rupp should have a veteran backup to start the year (not Knapp). But it is also not super positive to Rupp, criticizing his defense and handling of pitchers. If "he does those things he can be a number one catcher". As I said, those are the statements of a team that really wants Alfaro to catch sooner than later. I think they are angling for a midseason deal next year from the tone.

[Lucky_Beagle]

The tea leaves appear to be saying Alfaro will eventually be the starting catcher:
philly.com/philly/sports/201 ... tcher.html

Of course the article says Alfaro will be in AAA and Rupp should have a veteran backup to start the year (not Knapp). But it is also not super positive to Rupp, criticizing his defense and handling of pitchers. If "he does those things he can be a number one catcher". As I said, those are the statements of a team that really wants Alfaro to catch sooner than later. I think they are angling for a midseason deal next year from the tone.

Why crush the current starter though? I know what is said and printed in the newspapers have no barring on any trade that may or may not happen. It just seems like you shouldn't be finding ways to put down your current starters.

[zambonir]

Pete never censors himself, this is nothing new. But he's not stupid either. If he believed challenging Rupp publicly had a negative effect he probably wouldn't do it. That doesn't mean his belief is correct.

But I think some are too quick to view every little analytical discussion of a player's weaknesses as insulting, or "throwing someone under the bus." As a fan, I enjoy hearing, from the manager or front office, what is essentially a version of what's being said in team meetings and internal scouting reports. Tone, and what the manager is saying to the player behind the scenes, also counts for a lot. (Bowa, for instance, had trouble with tone.)

It has come up often enough w/ Rupp that they (the GM included) must think he still isn't putting in enough time to improve where they want him too. The "stick" approach is fairly recent so maybe he was getting the "carrot" up until this season. And they obviously think he can't work in improving his own game while mentoring pitchers (or another catcher) at the same time. We heard how hands-on Ellis was in the bullpen and the film room once he got here.

You gotta wonder if they'll make a run at bringing Chooch back, should Ellis not re-sign.

[David_Criss]

Arbitration salary projections

Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM
Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM
Cody Asche (3.022) – $1.3MM
Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM