Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[schillingfan]

Hey, I'm a late sixties early seventies overeducated liberal, I believe totally in free flowing thought.

[mdougherty12]

Fangraphs posted the ZiPS projections for the Phillies today:

2017 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies | FanGraphs Baseball

[Philsmania]

Things are moving in the right direction for the Phillies. The organization has depth in most areas. A lot of good players in the making but no stars as of yet. There is no one on the roster that the team can turn to as a slump breaker either at the plate or on the mound. For that reason, it is best to tone down the expectations for the near future. The POs are a year or two away. Lets focus on getting to .500 first.

That's my overall concern about the state of the organization right now. So many solid MLers coming up through the system but no stars. You can't build a champion without stars.

[andyb]

Notice that the Zips projections have Crawford as the 3rd most valuable offensive player with less than a full season of plate appearances. Perhaps the single biggest variable in the Phillies becoming competitive this year is Crawford. Any scenario of them getting 86-88 wins almost certainly is built on Crawford coming up and playing solid defense with better offense than Galvis. And 2B gets better because we pick from the better of Hernandez or Galvis.

There are lots of variables out there (Nola is kind of variable 1A), but the biggest source of improvement for this time is likely Crawford. The complaint about lack of stars is real. He is the one potential future star we have (even if his star season may be criminally underrated: 270/350/400, 12 SB, solid defense).

[Philsmania]

There are lots of variables out there (Nola is kind of variable 1A), but the biggest source of improvement for this time is likely Crawford. The complaint about lack of stars is real. He is the one potential future star we have (even if his star season may be criminally underrated: 270/350/400, 12 SB, solid defense).

Agreed. Crawford is our best hope to be a guy who "doesn't look like a star now but could become one". Maybe Nola and maybe Velasquez fit in that category as well. And, maybe Alfaro.

It doesn't help the expectations game that Crawford would essentially be replacing Rollins more so than he is replacing Galvis who we all know is just the "bridge" shortstop in the grand scheme of things.

[Austinfan]

Meh. Dominic Brown was supposed to be a star.
Herrera was a marginal prospect.
Cliff Lee looked like a AAAA pitcher for most of his 20s.

While projections generally hold true, there is a large SD, large enough that for a small sample (individual team) they're usually wrong.
Those models don't include intangibles and data that organizations have, for example, is a player coachable? Are they improving skills?
A good example is the Philies developmental philosophy of having young pitches focus on FB command and a changeup, at the expense of pitches they may be more comfortable throwing. Their numbers go bad, their projection goes south, but in a year, if the teaching takes hold, they add the changeup to their curve/slider and improved FB and rebound.

[andyb]

So just because Dominic Brown was supposed to be a star, JP Crawford is not going to be?

There are actually more reasons Crawford is a top prospect than Brown was. He has always impressed because of his baseball acumen and skill, not just his athleticism. He is also a plus defensive player where defense was always glossed over in the Brown assessments. And he has been consistently good in his minor league career with his biggest offensive strength (plate discipline) being the one that is hardest to achieve at the major league level.

Just saying all prospects have a variation in outcome is kinda obvious. It is also a cop out to not have a real opinion on anything. And oh by the way Cliff Lee won 46 games in his age 25-27 years and while he had one bad year after that it is factually incorrect to say he was a AAAA pitcher for most of his 20s.

It is a fact that Galvis is a mediocre starter who is old enough where he is not likely to get much better. It is also a fact that Crawford is a very good prospect. Some might like him more than others, but I stand by the statement that the biggest improvement of this Phillies team in the next year or two will likely come from Crawford and potentially having a consistent 4 WAR player at the most important defensive position.

[BostonRoss]

Notice that the Zips projections have Crawford as the 3rd most valuable offensive player with less than a full season of plate appearances.

If I'm reading this correctly, the projection is based on 550 PA, which is pretty much a full season (same number of PA as they have for Galvis). They do have a disclaimer that they don't expect everyone to achieve the projected number of PA.

[andyb]

If I'm reading this correctly, the projection is based on 550 PA, which is pretty much a full season (same number of PA as they have for Galvis). They do have a disclaimer that they don't expect everyone to achieve the projected number of PA.

700 is more like a full season so they are thinking mid-May, though I would probably agree that if we wait till May we might as well wait past the Super 2 deadline in June. Point is more about the quality of play for me and less about playing time. Whether we can compete this year or not, Crawford is the single biggest thing that could improve this team in the near future. Not the only thing, but the most likely positive thing that could happen.

[donaldorc]

That's my overall concern about the state of the organization right now. So many solid MLers coming up through the system but no stars. You can't build a champion without stars.

I am confident that Franco will be a star, and so is (will be) Herrera.

[BostonRoss]

700 is more like a full season so they are thinking mid-May, though I would probably agree that if we wait till May we might as well wait past the Super 2 deadline in June. Point is more about the quality of play for me and less about playing time. Whether we can compete this year or not, Crawford is the single biggest thing that could improve this team in the near future. Not the only thing, but the most likely positive thing that could happen.

Yeah, I'm not sure how they come up with the PA projections. They only have Odubel, who bats high in the order, at 609 and Franco at 586.

But I agree there is much to be optimistic about. While in general the projections for players without much experience have a higher error range, that works both ways, and Crawford could be better than projected. It's interesting to note that much of the reason Crawford ranks so highly is his defensive value (both the position played and being a plus defender there). His offensive output, as measured by RC/27, is lower than most of the other regulars, but he should improve as he gets into his mid 20s.

[andyb]

While Lindor probably is a little better prospect than Crawford (more power mainly), he has produced 4.6 and 5.7 WAR in his first 2 seasons and the first season was partial with only 438 PA.

Getting 3 WAR in a partial season and then 4+ beyond that from Crawford is very possible. I am not guaranteeing it will happen, but there is more than a 5% chance of it happening also. Maybe a chance approaching 50%.

[fish]

Dan Straily was traded by the reds to the marlins for Louis Castillo, Austin Brice and Isiah White.

It is hard to find a more similar pitcher to Hellickson than Dan Straily- the market has been set!

[andyb]

Except for the fact that he is pre-arbitration still. $550K < $17 million. Performance-wise they were pretty close last year but Straily has 4 more years of control with the first couple being pretty inexpensive.

I prefer to stress all the veteranocity that Hellickson has so he must be more valuable....

[fish]

17 mil? Minor detail! Lol. I suppose there is a line where they decide how much is too much when it comes to subsidizing Hellicksons contract in a deal- but there probably shouldn't be. It's not as if they are re-allocating resources to other avenues to continue the rebuild. That's been extremely frustrating about the Phil's winter- the braves continue to search out every avenue to stockpile talent on the farm, while the Phils just ...stopped. As though someone decided "that's it guys, the rebuild is done!"

[andyb]

To be fair to the Phillies, once the decision to not bust the international pool was made, the best way to add future prospects was to spend money on potentially valuable mid-level guys like Hellickson, Buchholz, and Saunders. Each could be pretty valuable in a deal with the Phillies picking up salary.

What we have not done is a creative trade of a youngish asset like Rupp or Galvis. I have advocated for that (and have been shouted down occasionally). I loved the Giles trade and thought that Rupp or Galvis could be similar trades while they were coming off decent seasons. Cesar is another potential trade along with VV along those lines though I prefer dealing Rupp or Galvis since we have AAA-ready prospects behind each. Even if we needed a placeholder for either it is a good roll of the dice that would potentially have given us a top 100 prospect. We need more of them and the Braves have done a good job of reloading in that respect.

[julio]

That's been extremely frustrating about the Phil's winter- the braves continue to search out every avenue to stockpile talent on the farm, while the Phils just ...stopped. As though someone decided "that's it guys, the rebuild is done!"

Perhaps just me, but this sounds to me like you're seeing what you want to see, or expect to see. Both clubs signed minor league free agents, made some minor league trades. The Braves traded some marginal major-league talent (Mallex Smith, etc.)... Who did you want the Phillies to trade for additional prospects? Aaron Altherr? Pitchers? Or as andyb suggested, Cameron Rupp? Freddy Galvis?

[Austinfan]

There is no rush to trade Galvis or Rupp or Hernandez, if they're not good enough to be building blocks, then it's unlikely they'll garner a big return, and none of the players behind them have shown that they're ML ready.
Just by maintaining their current level of play they increase their value (by providing buyers with more confidence that it's their norm, not a fluke) while giving time for their replacements to mature.
So it would make more sense to trade them in July or next winter than now.

Fans in every sport seem not to get the basics of a rebuild, patience, the whole point is to build up talent, not panic and make moves just to make moves.
The value of players doesn't decline because you have surplus talent, there are probably 10-15 teams for whom these three would be an upgrade, and if Crawford, Alfaro force their way into the Phillies lineup, these three will still be upgrades for those potential trade partners. So there is little downside risk and substantial upside potential (example, if Galvis' second half surge is for real and he does it for 300 PA before Crawford is promoted, he'd be a hot July commodity).

[andyb]

The only way to get prospects is to give something up. None of those players really projects as long term pieces that can't be replaced. We have potential prospects in place for 2 of them.

There is no "rush". But if you are looking for a creative way to add top 100 prospects now, they are the way to do it. They are also, IMO, valued about as highly as they ever will be. The fact that some people like yourself think they are good is an indication of that.

[allentown]

Galvis is probably valued as highly today as he ever will be. I think both Hernandez and Rupp have to validate their 2016 performance during the first 2/3 of 2017 if the Phillies are to receive full trade value for what they showed last season. It takes away the 'perhaps it was just a fluke' devaluation.