Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[zambonir]

The decision to make Altherr the 4th OF had already been made, IMO, especially after they committed to Herrera as CF (and long-term). Most of the beat writers felt that if a signing like this didn't happen, the RF job would be Quinn's on paper.

It's a Catch-22 for Altherr, he won't get enough playing time to really show his stuff (or show that he's recovered). But if he hits, he'll get more ABs, since he can play all three positions and is better defensively, than, probably, all three of the starters (but definitely the two corner guys).

Given Altherr's injury and Quinn being injury-prone, they could still be a RF platoon next year, and then one of them is either a nice 4th OF or a trade candidate.

I'm still not entirely sure why the Phillies are so eager to add veterans and improve the 2017 team, but I guess making the manager happy and trying to sell a more respectable team are valid reasons, even if they aren't the reasons I'd choose. If Altherr had never gotten hurt and Williams had stormed his way to the majors last year we wouldn't be having this conversation I suppose.

[California_Dreamin]

Its still worth considering that the Phils might move Hernandez if they get a good offer. Interesting that he was the only player the Phils didn't settle with and though it sure seems a 2.5 million will get it done, it hasn't happened yet.

However, I will admit that now that Saunders is signed the Phils don't have a real position need [remember the rumors were that the Phils might move Hernandez for Martinez of the Tigers.]

The one thing that signing Saunders does is certainly give the Phils an awful lot of options going forward. While it still seems almost inconceivable to contemplate, this Phillie roster is potentially deep in starting pitching, outfielders, and middle infielders [if and when they deem Kingery, Valentin and Crawford as ready.]

I know its equally inconceivable, but if the guys they added all play to their potential best, this team could compete for a wild card berth. The last time I was saying this after a fairly disastrous season was in the spring of 1993. The '92 team had finished last but they they signed Jackson, got Greene healthy, saw Rivera develop at the end of '92 and had Schill and Mulholland.

I remember telling people that this was a very impressive rotation and that they were pretty deep in outfielders and corner infielders. Now this team is NOWHERE near as talented as that team was but the feeling seems similar. If the rotation remains healthy, and they can get even 3-4 of that potentially incredible LHV group up with the big club by July, we could contend for a wild card berth come September.

Probably wouldn't make it but might contend. This is slowly becoming a pretty deep and interesting club. Klentak had done a great job.

[Austinfan]

This team could certainly compete if the stars align.

1) Joseph doing it for a full season and Franco rebounding would give them a solid lineup, if Galvis can continue his second half, Sanders,recaptures his first half and Altherr bounces back, Rupp continues to improve they could be in the top half, maybe the top ten in runs scored. They don't need everyone to come through, just enough plus one or two kids at Lehigh making the jump.

2) Potentially a very deep pitching staff, depends on Nola, Velasquez and Buchholtz, but with options like Eflin, Asher, Morgan, Thompson, PIvetta, et al, if one or two falter, they could plug in a hot pitcher from Lehigh and not miss a beat

3) Bullpen depth should be better, Gomez was solid until his arm fell off, no bon fide closer but potentially a solid group up and down

Now a lot of things have to go right, 75 wins would be my expectation, but 85 wins or so is not impossible.

[andyb]

The scenario where the Phillies can compete for a wild card is more like this:

4 solid middle of the order bats put up 800+ OPS: Herrera, Franco, Saunders, Joseph
Crawford comes up and improves SS and 2B in one fell swoop.
Some other kid like Williams or Altherr earns regular playing time. Between the 3 catchers we average 750 OPS and get 20 home runs.

Pitching is solid. VV and Nola step up as solid #2/3 starters. Eickhoff and Hellickson and Buchholz continue to be league average. Eflin and Thompson are depth (not really the others who we hope do not start much).
The bullpen survives the first half and we trade for a closer when we are 8 games over .500 at the All Star break.

The bullpen is the weakest link now. More competence than last year but little quality depth and potential regression of some guys like Neris.

[California_Dreamin]

Thank you guys for the confirmation, I didn't think I had lost my mind over the idea that if the stars aligned correctly this team could compete for a wild card berth.

This team reminds me of those teams we have seen in the past [not Phillie teams necessarily but teams in general] where only AFTER the fact did we realize how talented they were. Why was that?

Because the Phils are young and like most young teams we simply don't know if/when players like Franco, Herrera, Joseph, Crawford, Alfaro, Altherr, Williams, Hernandez, Galvis, Nola, VV, Thompson will cross that line from potential to performance and become stars...and a few of them will.

When they do the teams can jump 10 wins and a mid 80's winning team has a chance to play meaningful games in September. My guess is that McPhail/Klentak have an inkling that this could happen with the Phillies in 2017..they would never say it but the moves they made suggest to me that they are hopeful that many of the youngsters I just mentioned will blossom in 2017 and with Kendrick, Saunders, Benoit, Nestek and Buchholz to provide veteran leadership they can become competitive.

One more thing to keep in mind. This Phillie team is now loaded with money to spend and if/when they become competitive they well could reach out for that one guy who could make the difference.

Look, I am not expecting this in 2017...but it wouldn't surprise me. That said, I also understand that many of the opposite things could occur...Nola has arm surgery, Joseph has another concussion, Franco continues to frustrate, the vets don't get better, they just get older, Hernandez frustrates us more than he inspires us.

But for the first time since Howard collapsed on his way to first base in October of 2011 I think I can see, like Ben Franklin did after the signing of the Declaration of Independence, a sun rising instead of a sun setting.

Its been a long 5 years in the desert but I think we are about to enter an oasis that may last awhile.

[andyb]

I have no expectations either that they will be competitive, but it is nice to see that they have set the stage largely with younger players and a little money (Hellickson, Buchholz, Saunders, Benoit, Neshak) without trading any of their young talent base.

In other words this is exactly what I wanted them to do to prepare for real competition in 2018. If they compete it will be substantially with younger players that are part of the future and that is a good thing.

[Austinfan]

This could be an interesting trade deadline, because they could be both buyers and sellers.

Say Eflin starts at LV and has a 1.40 ERA and is throwing in the mid-90s with healthy knees and a strong lower body, and Buchholtz gets off to a good start, I could see them trading Bucholtz or Hellickson and bringing up Eflin.
At the same time, Saunders gets injured or Altherr doesn't bounce back, so they trade Thompson or another young pitcher packaged with Valentin for a young OF.

I think this will be a fluid year, I don't think Klentak will make "win now" moves, but he'll face another tough 40 man roster logjam in the fall, so he might kill two birds with one stone and package prospects for a ML ready player if they're in contention, or trade for younger, protected prospects if they're out of the running.

[DurhamBull]

This lineup seems full of hackers besides Odubel.

Mostly true, but C. Hernandez also deserves credit for honing his OBP skills.

[zambonir]

If there is a veteran player taking undeserving at bats on this roster it is much more likely to be Kendrick than Saunders. I really wonder if the team would have traded for Kendrick if they had known they would land Saunders.

The Phillies got Kendrick (and Neshek) before Hellickson accepted his QO. I really think that might have changed their direction a little bit. Were they not spending $17 million on a pretty good pitcher, they might have just added a few more journeymen, had a similar team to last year, and hoped the kids arrived on schedule. Instead they went on a bit of a shopping spree - Benoit, Bucholz, now Saunders. The market also came to them, financially and in terms of not giving up much (in most cases any) talent.

[California_Dreamin]

andyb...I still believe they acquired Kendrick with the idea of moving Hernandez in a deal for an outfielder. I have seen Kendrick in LF and believe me, he is a 2nd baseman. My guess is that there has been an internal debate about Hernandez and that the pro Hernandez group won out...tentatively.

Let's face it, he may always be the kind of player who encourages debate because his strengths [triples, OBP, switch hitter, can play multiple positions, good hitter] are as unique as his deficiencies [ poor stolen base percentage, occasional base running blunders, maddening fielding mistakes.]

But he had a very solid 2nd half in 2016 and I believe Peter Mac and Bowa both spoke out in defense of him whereas old school guys like McPhail and Gillick may have wanted to move him when his value is the highest.

I still believe he could be traded, lets see how this arbitration thing turns out. Realistically, it should have been settled yesterday...splitting the difference at 2.4 million and maybe the Phils give him easily attainable incentives that can get his salary to 2.8. If either side digs in their heals, to me this is a sign that this is a marriage that still may end in divorce.

I know this much. Howie Kendrick may play LF but he is no LFer.

[julio]

There's a lot on the thread entitled "Phillies To Sign Michael Saunders!" that belongs here now.

You're right, and I was part of the problem (talking about C Hernandez's OBP skills in that thread). Mea culpa.

So I moved 'em...and if you review the thread, you'll understand why I don't like to to that. The time stamps/post ordering gets messed up...

The solution is for our posters to actually think about whether what they're posting would make more sense in a different thread - even if it's a response to another poster. That's a bit of a culture change from what we're used to, so it's not easy. Maybe it'll get better, as we all get more used to this environment - we'll see.

[BtownFan]

So I moved 'em...and if you review the thread, you'll understand why I don't like to to that. The time stamps/post ordering gets messed up..

Thanks, Julio, and I understood. I just thought those focused on just this thread and not thinking that the Saunders addition is a "good thing" for the team (or not thinking about it at all) might want to look at that material. So I cited it here, because it contained interesting matter.

[julio]

So I moved 'em...and if you review the thread, you'll understand why I don't like to to that. The time stamps/post ordering gets messed up..

Thanks, Julio, and I understood. I just thought those focused on just this thread and not thinking that the Saunders addition is a "good thing" for the team (or not thinking about it at all) might want to look at that material. So I cited it here, because it contained interesting matter.

No problem! I guess the message is - Given the way we like to expand on any discussion (and I'm certainly guilty sometimes!), if a user chooses to read only a few, selected threads, that user is going to miss discussions that he/she might be interested in. We can try to keep our comments in "relevant" threads, but it's not always going to happen.

In general, I think I'm going to refrain from trying to "organize" things, given the way this board handles moving posts. Probably the exception is when a thread is completely hijacked for endless argument of something that isn't new?

EDIT: I will move posts that are blatantly off-topic, if I catch them when they're fresh (and particularly if they have elicited no responses). I just moved one such (11:00 am 1/18)...

[flyers19rw]

Things are moving in the right direction for the Phillies. The organization has depth in most areas. A lot of good players in the making but no stars as of yet. There is no one on the roster that the team can turn to as a slump breaker either at the plate or on the mound. For that reason, it is best to tone down the expectations for the near future. The POs are a year or two away. Lets focus on getting to .500 first.

[tom81]

andyb...I still believe they acquired Kendrick with the idea of moving Hernandez in a deal for an outfielder. I have seen Kendrick in LF and believe me, he is a 2nd baseman. My guess is that there has been an internal debate about Hernandez and that the pro Hernandez group won out...tentatively.

Let's face it, he may always be the kind of player who encourages debate because his strengths [triples, OBP, switch hitter, can play multiple positions, good hitter] are as unique as his deficiencies [ poor stolen base percentage, occasional base running blunders, maddening fielding mistakes.]

But he had a very solid 2nd half in 2016 and I believe Peter Mac and Bowa both spoke out in defense of him whereas old school guys like McPhail and Gillick may have wanted to move him when his value is the highest.

I still believe he could be traded, lets see how this arbitration thing turns out. Realistically, it should have been settled yesterday...splitting the difference at 2.4 million and maybe the Phils give him easily attainable incentives that can get his salary to 2.8. If either side digs in their heals, to me this is a sign that this is a marriage that still may end in divorce.

I know this much. Howie Kendrick may play LF but he is no LFer.

I believed they acquired Kendrick because it gave them the flexibility to move Hernandez, Altherr, or even Kendrick if the right offer developed or to plug him into LF if needed or use him as a super-sub type of player. I still am phantasizing about moving Kendrick to Detroit for JD Martinez with us picking up Kendrick's salary.

[Austinfan]

I don't think Klentak knows what he's going to do in March or July, I think he likes having as many options as possible without restricting his future decisions.
The players and the team will dictate strategy, while other teams will define the portfolio of possibilities (i.e., you need two to tango).
So it's not "we have Kendrick, we can move Hernandez" - far too simplistic of an approach.

Klentak can't know what players will do, especially the ones in Lehigh.
Crawford could continue to struggle, or come out and post a .900 OPS through June 1 and make it obvious his time has arrive.
Elfin could struggle with his command, or with two healthy knees and offseason work, add a couple MPH and dominate his first ten starts.
Saunders could pound the ball or come up lame.
And so on.

But by adding a lot of one year options to the pitching staff and on the field, Klentak can field a competitive team, have possible trade bait, and come next winter, decide which options to exercise, which players to sign to extensions, and who he'll just let walk.

The thing to watch in March are a few teams up against the salary cap who need to make tweaks to their lineups and want to dump a bad contract.
What team has veteran tweaks to trade and the option of eating bad contracts if you throw in a solid prospect?

[donaldorc]

Things are moving in the right direction for the Phillies. The organization has depth in most areas. A lot of good players in the making but no stars as of yet. There is no one on the roster that the team can turn to as a slump breaker either at the plate or on the mound. For that reason, it is best to tone down the expectations for the near future. The POs are a year or two away. Lets focus on getting to .500 first.

Agree with this.

[schillingfan]

In general, I think I'm going to refrain from trying to "organize" things, given the way this board handles moving posts. Probably the exception is when a thread is completely hijacked for endless argument of something that isn't new?

EDIT: I will move posts that are blatantly off-topic, if I catch them when they're fresh (and particularly if they have elicited no responses). I just moved one such (11:00 am 1/18)..

That's good to hear. BTW, I've now added a post that is off-topic to off-season discussions. I don't like structure and much prefer free flowing thought. So as long as a thread is a discussion about the Phillies - the big team or the minors, I'll read it. I had to reread several posts today on this thread because they had been moved and were listed as new. I vote for freedom to let one's brain flow into stream of consciousness. It will be ignored if uninteresting, or continued if posters want. Who cares?

[andyb]

FWIW I don't mind if we get off topic also and it is largely because of the great new software. It generally remembers out last visit and puts us at the point in the thread where we left off. Since we seem to only use about a half dozen threads each day in the off-season it is not a huge deal to check. There could still be some tweaks in threaded conversations, but generally I don't have trouble following things even if we stray off topic. Signing Saunders does impact our prospects and our off-season strategy. It is a big enough move to get its own thread, but the conversation can then stay whereever it starts unless it is really off topic.

[Austinfan]

Free flowing thought? Been there, done that, had a lot of fun.