Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[andyb]

Mind you, this is a complete non-story, nobody has actually reported the Phillies are interested in Moss. A columnist at NJ.com speculated he could make sense for them and a fan blog ran a headline with a question mark in it (which may or may not mean Betteridge's Law).

Jon Heyman reported a couple of days ago that the Phillies were interested in Moss:

Heyman: In Strange Market, After Encarnacion, Dozen...

Clearly the Phillies seem to be waiting for another domino or two to fall - but there appears to be interest or some sort of contact (i.e. it is the agents that leak this type of stuff).

[Austinfan]

Phillies could keep both Moss and Stassi, Blanco, Knapp and ??? would fill out the bench.
Since Kendrick can play 2B, that covers all the spots.
And it would give them a couple LH bats on the bench to PH.
Stassi is a plus fielder at 1B, so he gives you flexibility as a late inning substitute, has played some OF, not sure if he's passable there.
Moss is better used in LF than 1B.

[zambonir]

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-strange-market-encarnacion-dozen-sluggers-remain/ Well, Heyman, at least, says the Phils have shown interest in Moss.

Thanks, that is a bit more then the other things, but still completely vague and sourceless. As Andy notes, it often comes from the agents which doesn't necessarily mean it's true. But everything is true, when a GM is open to any conversation and possibility.

I love how the other big story (also mentioned by Heyman) is that the Phillies aren't going to bring Utley or Howard back. He also links the Phillies to Kelly Johnson.

[BtownFan]

Kendrick is better used at LF than 2nd...still worse than the league average defender there but was much closer to it. Cesar is better at 2B, and looked even better than usual after the All Star break.

Larry Bowa impressed by improvements of Cesar Herna...

You're right, Stassi has potential but must become a superfielder like Keith Hernandez was or up his power levels substantially.

[andyb]

Not sure how much potential Stassi has. He is 27 already. Players really don't improve much after age 27 on average. And a low 800s OPS in AAA translates to more like 750-775 in the majors. That just does not cut it at first base. Most on this board made the same mistake in overvaluing Ruf based on overage minor league stats.

This does not mean that Stassi might be able to produce a few mediocre seasons platooning to his strong side that could help the team inexpensively. I agree the cost is nothing to give him a shot, but we just should not expect much. And whether he gets a shot is really independent of bringing in a left-handed OF bat with a little power. Stassi is not and will never be that.

[Austinfan]

We're talking bench players, Stassi would be a good fit if he can play some LF, and allow late inning switches and provide good defense at 1B. In that role, .750 OPS is fine.
Moss is a one year patch in LF as a LH bat.
Blanco is a one year patch as a utility IF.
Knapp is the only one with a future, but if so, it'll be somewhere else unless he can play 1B and RF and become a supersub.

[andyb]

Stassi is not that good on defense though. 750 OPS at first base is not fine. If he wants to be a major league reserve he needs to do better than that. It was Ruf's problem also. 750-775 OPS just does not cut it at first base and at his age it was not reasonable to think he would get better.

[LoneStarPhan]

In his age 27 season, Moss had 6 ML ABs with the Phillies after having around 900 ML ABs in the previous four years. In his next 3 seasons, he had OPS of .954, .859, and .772 with Oakland and had over 1200 at bats with 76 home runs in those three seasons with the A's.

Moss is the example of someone who did come on strong after age 27. It can and does happen.

After 2014, Moss has fallen off and while it might be argued that he was better than what the Phillies might have in the outfield, frankly, he is not what they need. The Phillies need to find the player who is going to break out in 2017, not the one who had his break through in 2012. I certainly realize that finding that player is not easy, but they need to be looking.

[julio]

In his age 27 season, Moss had 6 ML ABs with the Phillies after having around 900 ML ABs in the previous four years. In his next 3 seasons, he had OPS of .954, .859, and .772 with Oakland and had over 1200 at bats with 76 home runs in those three seasons with the A's.

Moss is the example of someone who did come on strong after age 27. It can and does happen.

Aargh.

Yes, you can find anecdotal evidence of individuals whose performance goes against all statistical norms. But (to be frank), so what? One does not build anything sensible by gambling that an individual will defy all statistical norms. That is a formula for failure.

Yes, Brock Stassi could defy all normal expectations for marginal 27-year-old AAA ballplayers. Also, lightning could strike Donald Trump dead on the inaugural stand on January 20th. I'm not at all sure which is more likely.

[phillychuck]

Stassi figures to be a useful, free LH first base/sometimes OF reserve. He's probably not going to be an all star, but if you look at the trend of his minor league numbers, you'll see that he's improved in skills that carry over to the majors.

His walk percentage has doubled from 2013/14 to 2015/16, from around 7% to almost 14%. His ISO and SLG were just as good at LV as they were at Reading, so he handled the junkballers and the bigger park. His BABIP at both stops was actually a little low. His defense at 1B is very, very good, to the point that he did draw comparisons to some of the best defensive 1Bs in the big leagues by opposing managers in AA and AAA. If you are going to bet on a AAA player at age 27, I'd take one whose RC+ averaged 140 over the last two years. I'd MUCH rather bet on that guy than a 33-year-old declining big-leaguer. The key for a good organization is to use eyes-on scouting of their own players to figure out whether he's Darrin Ruf or Brandon Moss (or, in Bill James era, Ken Phelps). We don't have that inside information, we can just look at stats. But there ARE guys in AAA in their late 20s who have major league ability. My suspicion is Stassi might be one of those guys, and it costs us next to nothing to find out.

[allentown]

He's cheap, he's ours, he's already had a fairly successful season of AAA, he shouldn't be taking ABs from Hoskins in Allentown, so Stassi makes a fine MLB reserve. Really, 2017 is an ideal year for a move like this.

[harmony55]

For a short-term fix who would not block the Phils' promising outfield prospects, would anyone trade one year of righthander Clay Buchholz with his 2017 salary of $13.5 million for one year of Seattle outfielder Seth Smith with his 2017 salary of $7 million>

The 34-year-old Smith, who has posted wRC+ of 131, 113 and 110 the past three seasons, has been mentioned as a possible outfield target for the Phillies:

Are There Any More Ways to Improve the 2017 Phillie...

The Mariners remain in the market for a veteran starting pitcher.

[phillychuck]

I think Buchholz is too much for just Smith. Smith and a top prospect, OK.

Volgelbach plus Smith might do it for me.

[harmony55]

With six seasons of team control, Dan Vogelbach has surplus value.

With a $13.5 million salary and a projected 2017 WAR of 1.6, Clay Buchholz has limited surplus value, probably less than Seth Smith has a with his $7 million salary and a projected 2017 WAR of 1.2.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7331&position=OF

Perhaps the Phillies should add another piece.

[harmony55]

The most recent indication of Clay Buchholz's worth came in his recent trade for Josh Tobias. Compare the 2016 slash lines for Dan Vogelbach at Triple A and and Tobias across Single A and High A:

DV AAA 563 PA, .292/.417/.506/.923
JT A/A+ 561 PA, .291/.362/.422/.784

Tobias is a few weeks older than Vogelbach.

[tom81]

I'm very ok with the Phillies going with Altherr/Quinn in RF, the problem is that Kendrick just does not hit enough for LF.

[allentown]

Which would matter if the Phillies were even remotely trying to contend in 2017. Since they've chosen not to go that route, I don't think it really matters.

[andyb]

Buchholz is worth more to the Phillies simply because we can afford the $13.5 million much easier than just about anyone else.

Also, on Moss vs. Stassi - Moss made the majors at age 23 and showed some flashes over 4 years even if his one big shot at full time play was a failure. He was a top 100 prospect. Stassi is already 27 and has not sniffed the majors and has never been seen as any sort of a prospect. Plus he is a 1B which has less defensive value than an OF. They are simply not at all comparable. This does not mean that Stassi could not surprise and be an OK backup. It is just more likely that Moss will be better and the money to get Moss is money we have that won't be used for anything else and could also turn into a prospect later on.

[andyb]

The most recent indication of Clay Buchholz's worth came in his recent trade for Josh Tobias. Compare the 2016 slash lines for Dan Vogelbach at Triple A and and Tobias across Single A and High A:

DV AAA 563 PA, .292/.417/.506/.923JT A/A+ 561 PA, .291/.362/.422/.784

Tobias is a few weeks older than Vogelbach.

This is not really correct. You can't compare a 1B to a 2B and just look at their OPS.

Second, the biggest indication of Buchholz worth is that the Red Sox picked up his option. To them (a smart organization) he was worth $13.5 million. Tobias is not very valuable. But that is only an indication that Buchholz is basically worth his contract and not much more. The comparison with Vogelbach is really just a non-sequitur. Buchholz definitely has value. That is why we traded for him. There were just few teams that could afford $13 million and we were one of them. Getting Sale changed the equation for the Red Sox a bit but had nothing to do with Buchholz' inherent value.

[allentown]

I'm afraid that Kendrick plus Moss would mean almost no playing time for the young OFs.