Odubel Herrera designated for assignment

[zambonir]

My feeling is if Herrera hadn't been arrested, he would have been traded for pennies on a dollar. No team is willing to trade for him because of his baggage. Otherwise, he might still have been DFA'ed and not released - but he would have been invited to major league spring training.

That, to me, is the issue here. He's not going to "prove anything" in Clearwater, because he's not going to to appear in the actual games in any significant way. He's not in the mix to beat out Haseley or Quinn because he's not even in the mix to beat out Matt Szcur and Mikie Matook. He is going to be on the opposite end of the complex playing in games with Cornelius Randolph and Jhailyn Ortiz. Maybe he turns up on the road in a split squad game or gets called over to the major league side later in camp. Maybe.

But all of this is obviously happening because the Phillies don't intend to ever let him play for the organization again, not because he has a .620 OPS in his last full year of baseball. If this was all happening just for "baseball reasons" he would be the 72nd guy in spring training with a real chance to bounce back. He's not, and that has nothing to do with the fact that they moved him off the 40. (They also just moved JD Hammer off the 40, but he's still invited to spring training).

They probably should give him a second chance, a lot of domestic violence experts say "zero tolerance" is not an effective tool to reform (and often punishes the victims too), though in this case he's not actually losing his salary. But they don't seem to be serious about doing so. He's a $20.5 million AAAA player who won't be able to earn major league ABs unless things go incredibly wrong for the Phillies and even then I'm not sure he'll be getting playing time in AAA (Stephen, Moniak, Randolph and whichever NRI guy sticks will be ahead of him, unless the latter is already on the 26-man). He also may not even be a CF anymore.

I find it odd, because while I think they are either trying to keep their ducks in a row or keeping him just in case he ends up with value. their actions don't accomplish either. Seems to me Herrera can't file a grievance about being DFA'ed on merit, but he could for not being invited to spring training when he's plainly not a worse player than some of the others who are. And he's not really going to rebuild trade value in Allentown, any more than Nick Williams or Phil Gosselin have value based on their AAA numbers (and those guys are cheap!)

I will still be surprised if he's in an Iron Pigs uniform on AAA opening day, but I've been wrong so far.

[Lucky_Beagle]

If Herrera were to have been released by the Phillies and he filed a grievance what would he win? He already would get his salary...would they be forced to put him back on the roster?

[zambonir]

Probably. Of course it could also take two years for the hearing to happen! It's all pretty hard to parse or prove. Like, 29 teams have now declined to claim him on waivers, so it's pretty easy to argue he has no value as a player, but impossible to separate that from his salary and his baggage.

If I were him and his agent I would be begging to get released. Take a lump sum (which could also save the Phillies a tiny bit of $) and go find a new team, or even play indie ball this year if necessary. Even with the baggage surely one of the last-place, low-budget teams would roll the dice on him at major league minimum (and that would also give the Phillies one little bit of salary relief for a AAA reliever, or even Bohm/Howard).

[bkeich]

I think it is possible that he might actually play his way on to the opening day lineup

I don't see this happening... not even necessarily because of the domestic violence incident.

I would say it is "possible" but unlikely.

Let say one of our OF gets hurt in spring training or McCutchen isnt ready.

That leaves us Harper, Haseley, McCutchen, Bruce minus one of those guys. (please, dont even laughingly mention Quinn, who even Herrera outplayed and is unlikely to be able to run out to the OF without getting hurt). We would need an OF and the minor leagues are barren. Maybe we would pick up a temporary option, but we are badly limited financially so it is possible they may give him a chance. We have a herd of AAAA guys that are not as good (see the fight for the utility player job)

Like i said, we will get a better understanding of the Phillies plans in the first weeks of games, based on how many plate appearances Herrera gets. If he gets almost none, then they have already decided to option him and see what happens. If he is getting 15-20/week then they are either giving him a chance or auditioning him for a trade/dump.

Herrera is actually, I think, much closer to the majors than we are implying in this thread. Agreed there are other options, but lets say that Herrera does have a very good ST, can we really say he isnt the next guy up? I think he likely is.

My guess is that he spends all of April in AAA, but it is not impossible that he doesnt win a job coming out of spring training, he is clearly our next available ML OF at this point, it is just a question of penance and opportunity.

[zambonir]

Like i said, we will get a better understanding of the Phillies plans in the first weeks of games, based on how many plate appearances Herrera gets. If he gets almost none, then they have already decided to option him and see what happens. If he is getting 15-20/week then they are either giving him a chance or auditioning him for a trade/dump.

He is not going to play, and he doesn't have to be 'optioned'. He is already in the minors. I'm not going to do the research, but if we go back and look at the first 10 spring training games over the last five years, the number of ABs, total, that went to players who weren't actually in major league spring training has to be in the single digits (each year). Typically they bring over a few pitchers to pick up innings, or a good prospect who isn't yet ready for the full invite, just as a ceremonial thing. They already have as many as 6 CFs (Haseley, Quinn, Kingery, Martini, two non-roster guys) and Nick Williams (and some of the infielders) as lefthanded bench bats on top of that.

Beyond that, the reality is that even if we had two OF injuries, just on merit, the Herrera we've seen for his last 500 ABs is not actually any better than the AAAA guys (also you could play Kingery in CF and try other guys at 3B), just like Maikel Franco wasn't really better than Sean Rodriguez. We're just wishing on what once was, and our fondness for him, never mind the arrest. Even Nick Martini (the guy we DFA'ed him for) had a higher OPS last year. And even if he was given the chance to get 50 ABs in spring training and was good, it wouldn't really mean anything (bad players, or players who aren't actually ready, tear up Clearwater all the time).

But we shouldn't forget the arrest either. Again, zero tolerance isn't necessarily the answer. But I (and probably at least half of the phan base) have no problem if they've simply decided they don't want an accused domestic abuser on the team. They're just not allowed to say it, which is actually kind of silly.

If they really want him or even want what is best for him there is simply no reason why he wouldn't be invited to spring training, and really no reason why he couldn't be on the 40 either (I mean, c'mon, there's always a way to free up a spot. Heck, why even keep Nick Williams compared to a guy who can play CF?).

I still think being released or buried in extended spring training is far more likely than him walking onto the field in Allentown.

[Austinfan]

Actually, it makes sense not to put him on the 40, since no team is going to claim him, it saves you a spot.\

And letting him play in Lehigh instead of starting with the ML team avoids the ST circus, and the team can monitor his behavior off the field and his performance on the field before making a decision.

The contract is a sunk cost, so they can just be patient and see if there is any value there.

[tom81]

He'll be playing at age 24 this season, and if he can produce an OPS similar to what he did in September-October 2019, that's as good offensively as Herrera has ever been.

That SSS is slightly better than Herrera has done in two separate “seasons” and not close to what he has done in a SSS. Halsey has not been better offensively than Herrera has ever been, he may but he has not done that yet.

Hadley in SSS - 786 Ops / 116 Ops+ in 95 PA
Vs Herrera in full season
.781 Ops / 109 Ops+ in 656 PA
And SSS of .905 Ops / 150 Ops + in 110 PA

[zambonir]

And letting him play in Lehigh instead of starting with the ML team avoids the ST circus, and the team can monitor his behavior off the field and his performance on the field before making a decision.

But that is clearly not a baseball decision, which violates the MLB domestic violence policy. He served his suspension, he went to his court-agreed counseling, regardless of how the team feels about it ethically or PR-wise, he should be entitled to as much instruction and opportunity in spring training as his baseball ability merits. Instead, their position is his current baseball ability is less than the 31 other guys who aren't on the 40 (some of whom are pitchers obviously), and maybe they aren't wrong. But maintaining that pretense means he doesn't get to play in the major league games (or even gets to spend any time with the new manager and hitting coach).

[tom81]

But maintaining that pretense means he doesn't get to play in the major league games (or even gets to spend any time with the new manager and hitting coach).

There is no way to this know if this is the case unless you are with the team. Minor league players not invited to the major league camp often play in major league spring training games. The Carpenter Complex hosts both major and minor league spring training so it’s not impossible for the manager and coaches to work with Herrera too.

[LoneStarPhan]

Certainly moving Herrera off the 40 man roster was a decision that makes good baseball sense for the club.

We have no idea what discussions have going on between the Phillies and Herrera and his agent. Perhaps they both agreed that it would be best to avoid some pressure on Herrera by letting him come to camp and work out of the limelight to establish that he really is ML ready. His play in 2018 and early 2019 was disappointing and frankly, not good enough to earn a spot on the active roster.

I don't expect that he will get many at bats in ML spring training games, we must not lose sight of the fact that those games are for the purpose of preparing for the regular season. While performance in those games is noted, much more goes into evaluating the players and making roster decisions. Herrera will be observed in the minor league camp and we will just have to see what happens.

My hope is that the Phillies will be fair and give him a chance. I don't see any way a grievance would result. Clearly, the Phillies can defend removing him from the 40 man roster based on his play since 2017 and as to what non roster players they "officially" bring to spring camp, that is their call totally. I am pretty sure some players were moved off ML 40 man rosters or non-tendered a contract this off season who can be shown by various metrics to have had better seasons coming into the off season than Herrera had in 2018-19 combined. Just as a club can decided that a player having a hot spring after having great minor league numbers in the past, needs another month or two in AAA, they can decide to move players onto or off the ML 40 man roster. Every move should not be subject to the player's consent or taken to arbitration.

Right now, we have no idea what is going to happen. It certainly is not unrealistic to see Herrera have a season at 28 that exceeds his first couple seasons with the Phillies. If he has it in him, I hope he gets the chance to show it. Regardless, he will be well paid even if he never plays another ML game.

[zambonir]

Actions speak louder than words. We shall see.

But like I said, it's not really that common for uninvited minor leaguers to play in the major league games. A few innings from pitchers early on when all the pitchers are on inning limits. Maybe a few token appearances. Cornelius Randolph, for instance, got five ABs in four games last year. But with Herrera, they clearly don't want the beat writers to make him the story, which he would be if he plays - let alone starts - with the big club. As long as he doesn't walk onto Bright House Field or have a locker in that clubhouse they can do that. Maybe he gets to play on a split squad game on the road.

And coaching resources are limited. Yeah, they are all in the same complex but the major league coaches already have to work with 71 players instead of 26, they're not popping over to visit the minor league diamonds often. Maybe a little before the games start but even then, major league spring training is for the players who actually might play a role for the major league team this year.

[Lawman]

Unless Herrera absolutely plays his way onto the ML roster during Spring Training, I think he starts in AAA. There's not a lot of OF depth in AAA, and Quinn is always a double away from the Disabled List.Herrera is probably the first guy up in such an event. He's great depth to have, and trading him now would be selling low - although I admit I'm not sure how high the upside is.

[David_Criss]

Herrera knows he will start at AAA and have to play lights out to earn a promotion or for another team to trade for him.The reasons are well known and well documented.
1. He hasn't played well the last two years - he certainly wasn't the only young rising star or regular player to take steps backwards under Gabe. He was going to be on a short leash this year even had he been a model citizen.
2. His "crime" was never charged and in my mind there is a special place in ■■■■ for anyone who is abusive.

But, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He has stayed quiet about the incident. One only needs to look at other athletes who have been accused of similar actions to see that isn't always the case. Often they blame the victim and label them.

If he has taken additional therapy and truly is remorseful and has truly learned and knows he was in the wrong and accepts his demotion to AAA and works to get his game back to what it was that made him an All Star, I will forgive and hope he can help the Phillies win. That is a lot of ands. Let's see what happens.

Perhaps he is playing really well and the Phillies can trade for a needed piece and the trade partner wants Quinn or Haseley, a ready to return Herrera makes that easier to pull off.

[zambonir]

I still don't think he's the first guy up. Martini is, or Szcur/Mahtook, who will be filling out the AAA roster (and Gosselin can also play the OF and is obviously going to stay in the organization again).

Or one of those guys is already the 5th man on the bench and they'd bring up Williams. If Quinn gets hurt I think they'd also bring up an IF and have Kingery available. Like, if Walker makes the roster and Forsythe or Harrison is in AAA they'd go that way, especially if any of them have in-season opt-outs.

The funny thing about Herrera, if they do plan to keep him, is he has options, but even if he didn't, he'd clear waivers every time they sent him back. So he is useful in that regard, whereas the AAAA type guys could be lost if they're sent back (not that they're often claimed).

[flyers19rw]

If Herrera hits like he has in the past at times, its to the Phillies benefit to bring him up and either use him or trade him. Keeping him in AAA serves no purpose except to keep him out of town while paying him big money.

[zambonir]

How do you find out if he is capable of hitting well again? He hasn't hit well for almost a full two years (since June of 2018). His career decline is actually pronounced: OPS+ has gone from 111 to 109 to 103 to 94 to 62. He's not that last guy, but he's never gonna be the 2016 guy either. And his defense cratered too.

I know I'm repeating myself (a lot) but this is an Occam's Razor situation to me: the Phillies don't want him. Not on their roster, not on their major league franchise, not in their spring training major league clubhouse. And that is probably a baseball evaluation too, much as they gave up on Franco. If it's not a baseball evaluation, they probably don't want him in AAA either.

On baseball terms alone he deserves a chance to win a bench job and show something in spring training. He's not getting that. Just not seeing a path forward where they truly allow him to rebuild value. If the arrest had never happened he either would have played himself into being released (had his 2019 performance continued) or traded. There's clearly not trade value now and I don't think him putting up a .975 OPS in Lehigh Valley will change that. No team wants to trade for him now, not even if they only had to kick in a few millions.

[schillingfan]

Speculation is great, but next week we’ll find out if he is going to appear in spring training games. I think he will as the fan base doesn’t generally look at the box scores. There likely will be an article if he is, but I believe most of the dislike was performance and Abreu syndrome. If he plays well in spring training, the team has an ability to economically recoup some of their investment, which could be huge in staying under the cap.

[LoneStarPhan]

The long road back has started ??

https://rsnhub.nbcsports.com/node/341086?fbclid=IwAR3ITNUKyUbi3OBVcACtnOhEGnIV4q-CEpesAuPUozs1ZwnP8AtkNlxrYsQ

[el-pietro]

That is such a positive story to see. I understand how that father feels. Odúbel was my favourite player, he saw me wearing his jersey in the left center in Washington at the start of last season and got me a ball which was such a huge moment for me, not having grown up with baseball.
I've spent the last few months devastated that the person I got so much enjoyment from could do such a horrible thing and I want to believe it was a one time thing that he has learned from, but I have no evidence to believe that and have to believe the worst unless proved otherwise.
What I want more than anything is for Odúbel to prove that he has grown, and that he can be a positive part of his community, as well as to prove that he is an all star level talent for the Phillies, though thats far less important than the off the field stuff.
I want more stories like this but I want them to be like this in the sense that they are real and clearly not done for optics. This was several months ago and the photos have come from the family and not from the Phillies.
At the very least I'm glad he was able to help this father feel ok and to give these kids a great moment.

[tom81]

I've spent the last few months devastated that the person I got so much enjoyment from could do such a horrible thing and I want to believe it was a one time thing that he has learned from, but I have no evidence to believe that and have to believe the worst unless proved otherwise.

I was devastated too el-pietro. When I finally retired my worn out Bobby Abreu Jersey I got a #37 with el torito on the back. I feel no need to believe the worst and hope I’m right to believe he has put himself on a good path. I may be misguided but I feel like he has listened to his wake up call. Of course I expect the Phillies to get to the WS almost every year too.

I did pick up a Zach Eflin Jersey this off-season though as I didn’t want to inadvertently send a message that I condoned what Herrera was suspended for.