News of Phormer Phillies, 2021

[zambonir]

I assume Howard was joking.

What gave it away, the part where he said 12 years or the part where he said 40 years?

[el-pietro]

I'd imagine Howard doesn't stay on the ballot beyond this year. Rollins I think maxes out around 20-30%? Though I wouldn't be shocked if he dropped off too.
How close does Rolen get this year? Does he get in eventually?

[bkeich]

The fun part will be when Utley finally gets on the ballot (2061 according to Howard, but he might be a little off). There should be protests, maybe even rioting in NY.

[el-pietro]

If Utley gets into the HoF I will be in Cooperstown that day. He deserves it and I think he will get in eventually but his injuries really hurt his chances. I'm really looking forward to the series of articles written arguing in his favour.
His lack of awards probably will be held against him by some voters, but that seems dumb to me. He deserved hardware for his play, but people didn't appreciate him at the time. We know now he was probably the best defensive second baseman in the NL for half a decade and he was maybe the second best player in the NL overall behind Pujols at the time. He was definitely the best player on the Phillies in both 2006 and 2007 but his effectiveness was subtle. He shouldn't be punished because journalists didn't appreciate him when he have better information now.

I can't decide if I prefer his World F***ing Champions line, or his Boo? F*** You line from the ASG in New York.

[xogfog]

Utley has no shot at the HOF, neither does Howard, they both should have their numbers retired by the Phillies though. I'm even skeptical that Rollins gets in, but I think he should. Compare his numbers to Barry Larkin, who got in easily;

Runs - Rollins: 1,421 Larkin: 1,329
Hits - Rollins: 2,455 Larkin: 2,340
2B - Rollins: 511 Larkin: 441
3B - Rollins: 115 Larkin: 76
HR - Rollins: 231 Larkin: 198

For the statheads, Larkin has the better career WAR, a Higher OBP and a higher OPS+, but Rollins leads him in all those offensive categories and the played about the same amount of games (Rollins played 95 more over 17 seasons to Larkin's 19 seasons, which is a testament to Rollins' durability).

They have each won an MVP and a championship, Rollin's was in a lot more postseason games than Larkin, and was a clutch postseason performer. Larkin did go to 12 All-Star Games, Rollins only 3, but the joke about that is in the year that Rollins was the MVP, he was not an all-star. Rollins won 4 gold gloves to Larkin's 3. Rollins was the better overall defensive SS.

If Larkin is a HOF player, then Rollins is too.

[andyb]

Utley has a much better case than Rollins. bWAR of 64.5 is slightly ahead of Halladay in the same number of seasons. Utley's peak WAR is solidly in the HOF range. Rollins is only 47.6. Larkin at 70.5 is ahead of both.

Jimmy Rollins had pretty good counting stats, but just was no near the defensive player that Larkin was. Utley was that good defensively, however. His issue is weak counting stats but his WAR actually does get pretty close to the level everyone is in (around 70).

I don't think either Rollins or Utley will get in, but Chase probably deserves it. Not his fault he never won an MVP when he probably deserved one or two.

[BostonRoss]

I think Utley has a better HOF case than Rollins, but not necessarily a higher probability of getting in. Utley was a better player, definitely better offensively and probably as good defensively. As andby noted, Utley has quite a bit more WAR, and he got it in a lot fewer games. Utley is 15th among 2B in bWAR, 12th in JAWS, 11th in dWAR, and 9th in WAR/game (among 2B with at least 1000 games played). Jimmy doesn't come close to any of those rankings as a SS.

But Rollins may have as much if not more "fame" than Chase. He has the MVP and Gold Gloves. Jimmy was somewhat more accessible and media-friendly, and he played in about two seasons' worth more games, allowing him to accumulate more counting stats in some categories.

But I don't think either will get in for a while if at all. Both are disadvantaged by putting up their numbers in an era of high offense (Jimmy's OPS+ is only 97--his counting numbers are better thank Larkin's because Larkin played 15 years earlier when offensive output was lower). Some voters might hold that slide against Utley. As I said, Chase has a better case, but is it much better than those of Bobby Grich, Willie Randolph, Lou Whitaker, or Dustin Pedroia? (Or Cano if they start letting the PED guys in.)

[xogfog]

How can you say Rollins was not a better defensive player than Larkin? Rollins made difficult plays look easy, so he didn't have the Ozzie Smith style points, but he didn't need them because he got to balls with great reads and make plays with a great arm. You are selling Rollins short, I hope not because he didn't run out a popup once.

[Philsmania]

Rollins and Utley both face challenges for opposite reasons. Rollins is strong in the counting stats department but not quite so strong in the advanced statistics department. Utley is strong in the advanced statistics department but lacking in the counting stats department due largely to his delayed promotion to the big leagues in 2002-04--he was essentially stuck in AAA for three years when the Phillies experimented with him as a thirdbaseman in anticipation of losing Rolen and then had him stuck behind Polanco (and Bell who forced Polanco to second)--and losing close to a full season with knee issues 2011-12.

I think Rollins offensive numbers and defense ought to get him in. Utley may be a Veterans Committee case.

[andyb]

My comment was more directed at Rollins than Larkin (who I just looked up and has pretty similar defensive numbers.).

Rollins was good but not great. He really did not deserve any gold gloves even though he got a couple. He had just average range. Exceptional hands, but his range was closer to Jeter than Ozzie Smith. He is not dissimilar to Galvis there (Freddy in his prime) at doing some things very well but just getting to fewer balls than some other SS.

It is no shame to be in the top 5-10 defensive shortstops in the game. He just was not exceptional there. He is much more worthy than Bobby Abreu of his gold gloves, but he was still from an era where the best offensive shortstops got more gold gloves than they should have. He would have fared less well today when there are more advanced analytics around.

[Philsmania]

I always thought Utley should have gotten a GG at some point but Orlando Hudson had all those webgems and won it every year when Utley was in his prime. Hudson was more flashy but Utley was steady.

[Philsmania]

My comment was more directed at Rollins than Larkin (who I just looked up and has pretty similar defensive numbers.).

Rollins was good but not great. He really did not deserve any gold gloves even though he got a couple. He had just average range. Exceptional hands, but his range was closer to Jeter than Ozzie Smith. He is not dissimilar to Galvis there (Freddy in his prime) at doing some things very well but just getting to fewer balls than some other SS.

It is no shame to be in the top 5-10 defensive shortstops in the game. He just was not exceptional there. He is much more worthy than Bobby Abreu of his gold gloves, but he was still from an era where the best offensive shortstops got more gold gloves than they should have. He would have fared less well today when there are more advanced analytics around.

Unlike Jeter, Rollins didn't have to dress things up with a signature flying spin.

[el-pietro]

Utley should have gotten a GG

Chase Utley was a defensive genius whose ability to always be in the right place wasn't appreciated. He wasn't quick, and he didn't have the surest hands but he was always positioned incredible well. He was shifting on every player, before that was something that was being discussed, I'm biased but it seemed obvious to me, even in an era before value stats were used effectively. There may been more talented defenders, but Utley was the best, or among the very best for a huge chunk of his career.

This article explains it better and in more detail than I could.

What makes Chase Utley so good?

I looked up his defensive metrics compared to the eventual GG winner a few years back. We know defensive metrics aren't perfect - so I pulled defensive metrics from various sources to get an idea. I don't know if defensive metrics change retroactively the way WAR can sometimes do if the formula is updated so as a heads up I pulled these numbers in 2 years ago and haven't checke do see if they are the same today.

Starting with Fangraphs Defensive rating

Def

2005 - Luis Castillo wins with 12.1 to Utleys 19.1
2006 - Orlando Hudson wins with -3.0 to Utleys 9.9
2007 Orlando Hudson wins with -0.2 to Utleys 14.4
2008 Brandon Phillips wins with 14.3 to Utleys 21.8
2009 Orlando Hudson wins with -0.7 to Utleys 13.4
2010 Brandon Phillips wins with 10.4 to Utleys 12.1
2011 Brandon Phillips wins with 13.4 to Utleys 10.7

Fangraphs DRS:

DRS

2005 - Luis Castillo wins with 7 to Utleys 20
2006 - Orlando Hudson wins with 13 to Utleys 18
2007 Orlando Hudson wins with 18 to Utleys 18
2008 Brandon Phillips wins with 13 to Utleys 30
2009 Orlando Hudson wins with 6 to Utleys 12
2010 Brandon Phillips wins with 11 to Utleys 17
2011 Brandon Phillips wins with 7 to Utleys 7

Baseball Reference dWAR
2005 - Luis Castillo wins with 1.0 to Utleys 2.7
2006 - Orlando Hudson wins with 1.7 to Utleys 2.1
2007 Orlando Hudson wins with 2.0 to Utleys 2.1
2008 Brandon Phillips wins with 1.6 to Utleys 3.5
2009 Orlando Hudson wins with 1.0 to Utleys 1.6
2010 Brandon Phillips wins with 1.4 to Utleys 2.1
2011 Brandon Phillips wins with 1.2 to Utleys 1.1

BPs FRAA
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA
2005 - Luis Castillo wins with 6.3 to Utleys 2.7
2006 - Orlando Hudson wins with 4.9 to Utleys -3.1
2007 Orlando Hudson wins with -0.8 to Utleys 7.2
2008 Brandon Phillips wins with 2.6 to Utleys -1.5
2009 Orlando Hudson wins with 5.7 to Utleys 8.3
2010 Brandon Phillips wins with 6.1 to Utleys 11.2
2011 Brandon Phillips wins with -7.6 to Utleys 6.5

Thats four different ratings by three different publications. BP seems to be the outlier, and they have some large fluctuation Year to Year for each of these players, and especially compared to the other publications. If I ignore BP for the moment the other three ratings give Utley the lead or the tie for the lead in 19 out of the 21 possible ratings. The two he doesn't come out on top are 2011 to Phillips, and when you consider Utley only played in 103 games compared to Phillips 150 then you have to say he is doing pretty well especially as the ratings are all pretty close. He actually would rate higher on a per game basis, but if you aren't on the field you can't help your team win so I would be inclined to give the 2011 GG to Phillips. The rest? Utley should have won all of them. Thats SIX gold gloves he should have won.

Lets go back to BP for a moment, Utley rates higher than the eventual winner in 4 of the 7 seasons, including by a massive margin in 2011, but I've already conceded award to Phillips. If I only give Utley the Gold Glove in years in which he is either the unanimous leader, or tied for the lead across these four ratings then he still wins THREE gold gloves.

Its possible that there are other candidates who should be considered for these awards, but the fact that Utley never won a gold glove devalues the award in my mind. Especially when you look at Derek Jeter winning five despite never being a good defensive player, it is very clear that Gold Gloves were given out based on reputation and fame.

I fell in love with baseball watching Chase Utley throw himself around the infield putting his body on the line. I didn't know anything about the game at the time, but I could tell he was special right away. Phillies phans loved him for the same reason, but he didn't make the flashy plays so he didn't get the hardware.

Is it fair that when it comes to hall of fame voting the lack of understanding of his defensive value in 2005-2011 is held against him today? Hes probably a marginal case based on his injuries and late start, but the fact that managers and coaches (honestly I thought it was journalists) didn't vote for him at the time should not be the reason he doesn't get in.

[Philsmania]

Nice work, EP! I was right, Utley deserved a GG, much more so than Hudson and his webgems.

[andyb]

Gamboa among 3 former players signing elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/s_m_potter/status/1464014561103724561

[Philsmania]

Aaron Altherr eyeing a comeback attempt.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/aaron-altherr-outfielder-free-agent-kbo-korea-dinos.html

[bkox]

Sources: Free-agent pitcher Jerad Eickhoff in agreement with the Pittsburgh Pirates, pending physical.

— Robert Murray ( @ByRobertMurray ) November 29, 2021

[bkox]

BlueJays sign David Phelps to a minor league deal

[Philsmania]

BlueJays sign David Phelps to a minor league deal

He did very well for the Jays this past season for a month+ before pulling up lame and needing season-ending surgery.

[Philsmania]

Alfaro on the trading block (not surprising).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/marlins-attempting-to-trade-jorge-alfaro.html