News of Former Phillies 2019/2020

[allentown]

I think we all knew that by now, the trade for Segura would be tipping toward the other side, but the counted on boost to the Phillies that would have made the deal OK for the Phillies just did not happen. Like most of what Klentak did, it just did not work out well.

Klentak favored trades over FA signings. His major FA signings seemed to be forced upon him by Middleton. Some of his trades were bad trades, from a trade-focused standpoint. Almost all were bad from the standpoint that by just paying a bit more $ on the FA market, we could have gotten that added WAR we needed, without having to trade away talent. From the trade future to help the presesnt standpoint, the trades failed to meet their purpose: they hurt the future, but failed to produce even a better than .500 present. If you trade future for present, you must succeed in the present, or it is an unforced error. Even on the Realmuto trade, where we got a legit star, we failed to make the playoffs or even have a winning record with him, so we've traded Sixto's whole career for a comp pick in the draft. Plus we likely have a worse catcher in 2021 than we would have had if the trade not made. The Segura trade was just bad.

[BostonRoss]

Braves sign Drew Smyly.

Braves Sign Drew Smyly

[schillingfan]

Smyly is sure to do good with the Braves.

[zambonir]

The MLBTR write-up put it well:

The concern, beyond injury, is that Smyly might turn back into the pumpkin that logged a 6.24 ERA between the Rangers and Phillies in 2019. If you consider his time with the Rangers an aberration due to his recent recovery from Tommy John, however, Smyly’s combined ERA between the Phillies and Giants is a much more palatable 4.15 ERA over 89 innings. The Braves would take that kind of production in a rotation alongside Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Wright.

[andyb]

I guess 2021 will be the year he finally puts things together. He was on the alternate squad all year.

Mets sign RHP Sam McWilliams to a one-year contract

[David_Criss]

Charlie Morton signs with Braves

[BaseballCat]

Aaron Altherr becomes a Korean baseball champion as his NC Dinos win the KBO. I enjoyed watching all summer and being exposed to the style of baseball in Korea. The Dinos are the team I picked from the beginning so that was fun. It was a wonderful finish this morning. Watch the video to see the passion of fans and announcer. Thankfully ESPN had English announcers, but without the passion, but overall did a good job.

Phillies: Aaron Altherr becomes Korean Series champion

[philsphan67]

Very enjoyable baseball. Ryu even said that it's more enjoyable to watch than the MLB. Pitch clock and they deadened the ball. Games are good!

[andyb]

Orioles DFA Eshelman.

Orioles release Núñez, designate Eshelman for assignment, claim Chris Shaw on...

He had a 5.22 ERA across 2 years but it could have been worse. An amazing 19 HRs in 70.2 IP.

[xogfog]

Mets sign Trevor May

Mets Sign Trevor May

[Philsmania]

May was a guy many phans wanted on the Phillies. However, at the same time, look at all the times the Phillies have gotten burned signing veteran relief pitchers to expensive contracts only to have them bomb or flame out with injuries for them. See, Neshek, Hunter and Robertson, just to name the three most recent.

[andyb]

Neshek, Hunter and Robertson, just to name the three most recent.

Except only Robertson out of that group was a disaster. Hunter gave us 1 good year (1.5 WAR) and then got hurt in his second year. 1.7 WAR for $18 million is a little expensive but not a disaster. Hunter was also a bargain last year at near the minimum. Neshek was a huge bargain on his first contract (2.8 WAR for $6.5 million) and then a little like Hunter with 1 good year(0.8 WAR) followed by a lost year for injury. Add all 3 years up and you get about 3.5 WAR for a little less than $23 million).

All 3 getting hurt in the same year along with Seranthony and a few others was bad luck, but the total experience was not awful and the mistake was signing older guys most likely. May being a bit younger with a fairly fresh arm probably does not have the same injury risk as what the 3 the Phillies have signed.

Any pitcher can get hurt. Bullpen usage today (use and abuse them, throw them out for a fresh arm) encourages this. One needs a dozen good relievers to get through any season if not more. But to just throw up your arms and say we should not sign free agent relievers is to just ignore the problem. The top of the market does have the risk of injury or failure, but we also have the cashflow to play in the market if needed. We sure aren't developing enough good home grown arms, so we do need it to some degree.

[zambonir]

The 2019 team was very unlucky in that the young guys got hurt just as much as the old guys. It was still top-heavy (and $-heavy) with the latter, if only due to the addition of Nicasio. At the time they originally signed Neshek and Hunter I don't think either of them were even supposed to spend the second year in Philly, but the combination of the unexpected 2018 success and their health took trading off the table

But then from that 2019 experience they decided, "don't sign veteran relief pitchers who cost anything" and we got the 2020 bullpen.

There's a middle ground. It's hard to imagine they won't sign at least one reliever to either a $16 million two-year deal (basically what May got) or a $10-12 million one-year deal.

And at least Robertson was hurt. Imagine if he'd pitched like Phelps without being hurt.

[andyb]

Fangraphs also has an extended look at Bobby Abreu's Hall of Fame case. It is actually better than we thought. While he barely cleared the 5% to remain on the ballot last year, he would fit pretty well in the second tier of Hall of Fame right fielders. He probably won't get in, but there have been worse players enshrined.

JAWS and the 2021 Hall of Fame Ballot: Bobby Abreu

[Philsmania]

Abreu's big problem is that it is the Hall of Fame and Abreu never really generated fame. He was a consistently outstanding performer but he never had that huge MVP-caliber season (the highest he ever topped out at was 12th in an MVP vote), was only an All-Star twice and he never did anything of note in the postseason (other than the 2009 ALDS against Boston). Simply put, he always excelled under the radar. As good as his career was, it also had a somewhat unexciting quality.

[andyb]

I just don't think it is his fault that OBP was underappreciated in his era. Now with the greater understanding of WAR and even OPS (though remember that OBP is more important than SLG in that calculation), Abreu probably would have received more of that "fame" if he played today. As the last sentence implies, if Ted Simmons is a hall of famer, then maybe Bobby is too.

As I said, I don't think he gets in. Not sure Utley (whose case is even better) or Rollins get in either. The case for the above average player who has a long career (and is above average for most of that career) is just tough. The Hall is full of lesser players though who probably got lucky by playing for more World Series winners or NY and LA teams.

[el-pietro]

If his career had started 10 or 15 years later he'd have been a SABR darling, a regular all star and probably gains multiple MVP 10 finishes. His numbers between 1998 and 2004 are very impressive, and even as he declined he was a solid performer.

To put his career with the Phillies into contacts since 1980 (40.37 seasons) there have been 19 players who have gotten rWAR of 5.0 or higher for the Phillies in a single season (including Nola and Wheeler adjusted for a 162 game season in 2020). 11 hitters and 8 pitchers, totaling 52 individual seasons.

WAR is an imperfect stat, but its a useful guide. . I counted 52 separate occasions of 5.0 bWAR or higher in this time period

Bobby Abreu accounts for 7 of those 52 seasons. Only Mike Schmidt put up 5 or more bWAR more than Bobby in this time. Schmidt managed it 8 times since 1980 (and another 5 before 1980). Chase Utley did it 6 times, Carlton 4 times (plus 2 before 1980), Hamels 3 times and Schilling 3 times.

Among those 52 seasons there were a numbe rof players hwo reached peaks far above Abreu. His best season was 6.6 according to Fangraphs and that is good for 22nd on this list. Ahead of his best season are Schmidt 5 times, Utley 5 times, Halladay and Lee twice each, Carlton, Dykstra, John Denny, Darren Daulton, Scott Rolen, Nola and Wheeler*

Bobby was probably never a realistic MVP but he was a clear all star, a very consistent performer and would have received a fair share of MVP votes. He finished in the top ten among batters in bWAR in the NL 5 times, but only as high as 7th place.

To an extent his HoF campaign likely suffers from a similar issue to Chase Utleys, performing in skills that were very conducive to winning but were not recognised for doing so at the time. I hope he can stay on the ballot for a few years so that we can get a series of articles from writers extolling his virtues towards the back end of his eligibility.

[el-pietro]

I like to review these dashboards when considering a players chance of getting in. I think its been fairly useful for predicting a players eventual chance of getting in over the last few years.

Second Base JAWS Leaders | Baseball-Reference.com

Shortstop JAWS Leaders | Baseball-Reference.com

So the argument for Jimmy is his awards and longevity in respect of counting stats. For Utley its elite peak performance (9th highest all time among 2B) and solid total WAR (15th all time).

The argument against Utley is a lack of counting stats and awards. No MVPs or Golden Gloves. The argument against Jimmy is mainly down to WAR. Despite a long career his total WAR is disappointing (25th all time among SS), and his peak is even worse (39th all time)

I think Utley will eventually get in, but it will take a few years and probably some more modern writers becoming eligible to vote. I also think it comes down to peak vs longevity for Utley. Do voters punish him for not getting called up sooner, and for his knee issues in later years? Do they punish him because his elite defense wasn't recgonised at the time? (I looked into this a couple of years ago and came to the conclusion that he should have won the gold glove based on stats at lest 5 times, and maybe as many as 7, including one year where he only played about 100 games)

On the other hand I don't think Jimmy has much of a shot. He has a lot of the counting stats, and the MVP, but I think opinions of his career will suffer where Utleys improve. Other than the (undeserving) MVP, a lot of his argument is based on longevity.

[bkox]

Domingo Santana To Sign With Japan's Yakult Swallow

[Philsmania]

Royals nontender Maikel Franco.

Royals Non-Tender Maikel Franco, Bubba Starling