MLB (Non-Phillies) Hot Stove, 2024-25

[andyb]

Parades was a really good get for them with 3 years of control.

Did not realize he had 3 years of control. Clearly had his service time gamed almost to the day by Tampa. He is really better than Bohm but without the same PR. Younger, neutral defense rather than below average. Our equivalent deal with Bohm would have probably had to include 2 top prospects (like Crawford and Caba/Tait) rather than just one.

[allentown]

Huh? Tucker had WAR of 5.7/5.4/5.4 in 2021/22/23. All better than his 2024.

[el-pietro]

Yeah but he only played 78 games in 2024 so similar WAR in a little under half the games.
Offensively he was much better.
Career high in On Base by about 40 points and career high in slug by another 40.

He put up 180 wRC+ in 2024. 146 in 21, 130 in 22 and 140 in 23.
OPS+ tells a similar story
2021 147
2022 129
2023 142
2024 181

So the question is... did they just give up an every day starting third baseman with 3 years of control left, plus their first round draft pick for a guy who bats 80% above average or 40% above average. Cos the latter is basically peak Rhys Hoskins but in the outfield and the former is 2021 MVP Bryce Harper (sort of)

[UnsaltySailor]

Cubs must have another move coming. They already have a youngish 1B, and 5 OFs for 4 spots (3 OF + DH). They also added payroll and rumors were they wanted clear some.

[andyb]

They have definitely been trying to trade either Suzuki or Bellinger. Suzuki was part of several Tucker rumors though imagine Houston wanted to shed payroll in the deal so that was not a great fit. Hard for us to pick up that $19 million too though he'd be an improvement in the corners.

[Dirk41]

What would the Phillies need to give up for Suzuki?

[mdougherty12]

Suzuki has a full no trade clause, so he gets to pick his destination:

Latest On Seiya Suzuki's Trade Candidacy

[andyb]

We are definitely going to need a new calculation for WAR value after this offseason. The flat calculations probably never worked really well in practice but the market is now paying much more for scarcity at the top with the large market teams paying more for star player WAR than the mid-market teams (though even that is going with the A's Severino deal for instance).

It definitely feels like each WAR is worth more than $10 million these days in a long term contract. Maybe a bit more though the back of the market where lesser players sign for less will bring that average down. And remember those $/WAR calculations really should factor in the competitive balance tax penalties in some way.

Why are MLB’s free-agent contracts often beating projections this offseason?

[UnsaltySailor]

For good measure -

Yankees To Acquire Cody Bellinger

[andyb]

In the non surprise category, it's the velocity and movement that is injuring pitchers. Plus youth and HS pitchers are adapting pro training techniques putting too much strain on developing arms. I wonder if baseball needs to become more like youth football with severe restrictions on how much they throw and what types of pitches they throw.

Incentivizing pitchers to go for weak contact to pitch deeper in games is another thing. I still go back to the ball being too lively and too easy to hit home runs. Lessen the penalty for throwing strikes and pitchers will throw more of them.

MLB report on arm injury epidemic finds a multilayered problem with few easy...

[bkeich]

My guess is that young pitchers throw MANY more breaking balls than the used to. When I was a kid, back in the olden days, we were pretty much outlawed from throwing breaking balls until we were about 13. Even after that and into High School I was very limited in throwing pitches that involved “breaking” my wrist or spinning, it was 85-100% fastballs or sinkers (if you could throw one). Any curve or slider was counted by our coach and he would allow maybe 10 - 15 per game.

Obviously that has changed, and maybe that approach was too much, but certain pitches do twist your arm in a way that does cause problems.

[flyers19rw]

Nolan Arenado refused to waive his NMC to be traded to Houston. I suspect that the Astros know that Bregman is gone and need a 3B. A spot for Bohm?

[zambonir]

That's just weird all around. Supposedly Astros were previously on his list but with them dumping Tucker he took them off. What's the point of dumping Tucker if you can't keep Bregman, or use that money on someone like Arenado instead? Cards must have been ready to pay up or accept very little return thought.

[allentown]

It could just be a negotiating tactic. Players often paid to waive no-trade rights.

[zambonir]

True true. The story says "for now." But I don't think you can actually pay a player to waive their rights, only trigger things that are already in the contract (like an option) or offer them an extension. And with a $72 million three-year contract doing that isn't viable, and also what does he need 73 or 75 for?

Sounds like he just wants the Cardinals to find another place to send him, whether for market reasons or competitive reasons. If they can't (to their own satisfaction) they can try to get him to change his mind.

[dcsman]

Denying a trade to get paid more money when you've made as much money as Arenado has just seems like really bad form. Honestly, I don't believe that was the motive here, but who knows.

[andyb]

Sandoval to the Red Sox. 2/$18.25 million backloaded because of the TJ recovery. We had been interested reportedly as a Suarez hedge for 2026 though maybe the money with the extra luxury tax penalties made them think otherwise.

Red Sox To Sign Patrick Sandoval

[bkox]

The Astros have reached agreement on a three-year, $60M deal with free-agent 1B Christian Walker, a source confirmed — a move that probably marks the end of Alex Bregman’s time in Houston. … https://t.co/YcH7RnNabl

— Alden González ( @Alden_Gonzalez ) December 20, 2024

[el-pietro]

Goldschmidt to the Yankees for 12.5 for one year. Surprised he didn't get more

[BostonRoss]

They replaced Rizzo with a guy who's two years older.