MLB (Non-Phillies) Hot Stove, 2024-25

zambonir 2024-12-09 03:38:04 UTC #82

It is good to be 26.

DurhamBull 2024-12-09 03:44:16 UTC #83

It’s even better to be 26 and be looking forward to a guaranteed income exceeding half a billion dollars.

dcsman 2024-12-09 03:45:17 UTC #84

Big overpay. But it's just money. Phils vs. Mets rivalry is gonna get bigger.

fish 2024-12-09 04:47:01 UTC #85

And what’s the luxury tax hit - another $25 million on top of the $51 million a year? When money doesn’t prevent you from doing what you want, well, there’s no excuse not to.

Kind of makes me hope the Phils lean into pitching, and setting up a next generation to pair with Wheeler and Nola (Painter and Crochett please)

saycheese 2024-12-09 13:17:18 UTC #86

Big overpay for Soto for sure. How much better does it make the Mets. The answer is probably not much at all. Alonso has not resigned and word is he may be signing elsewhere. They lost several starting pitchers. They are experimenting with Clay Holmes becoming a starter and overpaid him to do that. They are going to need to spend more a lot more to get themselves in Dodger territory as far as talent goes.

zambonir 2024-12-09 13:39:04 UTC #87

For the moment I believe the Mets' payroll is still lower than the Phillies' payroll, even with Soto.

bkeich 2024-12-09 13:48:45 UTC #88

So, using $10M/ WAR, 76.5 WAR. over 15 seasons or 5.1 WAR per year. Yea, that is not happening for that long of a time I suspect, especially for someone not known for defense.

Now, if you say $15M /WAR that makes it 3.4 WAR/ Season. That might happen.

Either way for the next 6-8 years the Mets just got much, much better. Not good.

By the time this contract ends he wont even be in the top 30 AAV if things keep going like they are. Of course the TV / Streaming contracts could significantly dry up and the Mets would be in huge trouble. Of course, the whole league would be also.

bkox 2024-12-09 13:53:45 UTC #89

Mets owner Steve Cohen has a net worth of 21 Billion. If the tv contracts dry up, the Mets are probably in the best shape

bkeich 2024-12-09 14:00:28 UTC #90

True, the teams owned by the ridiculously wealthy would not be hurting, of course he didn’t get to $21B by owning things that lose money either (even with value of franchise included). If the team loses too much he may cash out.

zambonir 2024-12-09 14:04:45 UTC #91

I get the sense that MLB owners are bullish on the streaming future. We've already seen some less likely teams throwing money around a little bit. And also, the big market teams (the Yankees but probably the Phillies too) will likely fight to maintain their rights or a larger share.

But you don't sign Juan Soto thinking about WAR per dollar (or year). You sign him because he's a superstar. He's gonna generate cash for several years even if the Mets don't start winning more, and even more cash if they do. And of course they know he won't be worth the last five years but that's SOP (both in terms of AAV and the price of big-ticket free agency).

Docs 2024-12-09 14:39:50 UTC #92

I read that Soto has an out after five years. If the market changes and he continues to be a stud he may pull an AROD.

Middleton had a good response when asked if he needed the Phillies to make him money - he said something to the effect that he has his other businesses to make money so that he can own the Phillies - implying that profit is not important. I suspect cohen feels the same way if not more.

zambonir 2024-12-09 14:46:55 UTC #93

I think it's more that his business already made money, and his money is making money. And clearly he has been bringing in new investors who are on board with his approach, whereas the Bucks were maybe not comfortable continuing to assume the same level of spending/risk at their previous ownership share.

Cohen just doesn't care at all. He has the money, and gambling with it is also what he does for a living. Plus he's a fan. He'll own the Mets until he dies (or is convicted of more crimes. So I guess he does like to mitigate his risk when he can).

bkeich 2024-12-09 16:07:42 UTC #94

The Sasaki Sweepstakes replaces the Soto Sweepstakes. He falls under the international FA rules so the number will be much lower, currently limited to around $7M bonus by teams.

Dare I hope? Yea, not a chance as usual with Japanese players.

zambonir 2024-12-09 17:39:31 UTC #95

The choice of whether Soto leaves by exercising his opt-out clause after five years ultimately will rest with the team, not the player. The Mets, according to a source briefed on the terms of his contract, can void Soto’s opt-out by escalating his average annual value from $51 million to $55 million over the final 10 years.

By then, Major League Baseball presumably will be in the middle of a new labor agreement, with new national television contracts and a more settled, lucrative local television landscape. Soto, if he continues to deliver peak performance, likely will be tempted to test the market again. And the decision for the Mets, as he enters his age 31 season, might not be as simple as it would appear.

andyb 2024-12-09 18:02:33 UTC #96

These parts of the contract are usually more for show than anything else. I don't think the Mets have any intention of paying the extra $40 million here. It will probably be better for them to let Soto go somewhere else at that point and get out from under all the money (including luxury tax) that they would have to pay for Soto's age 31-40 seasons.

Soto can probably do better by opting out since the contract is front loaded. But the Mets will almost certainly do better if he chooses to opt out. So I wonder if this deal all the time was a 5-year deal for something like $325 million depending on exactly how it is front loaded.

zambonir 2024-12-09 18:06:23 UTC #97

Like Rosenthal says, the Mets will have a decision to make. If they don't want him to leave and the alternative is to sign him to a new five-year $60 million AAV deal they may just want to keep carrying the longer contract and worry about the last five later. Or everyone will still be offering 10-year deals then, if he's worth it.

andyb 2024-12-09 18:16:28 UTC #98

Oh ye of little faiith. Bowden says we're in the mix!

Roki Sasaski is now expected to sign with an #MLB team between January 15-23rd. #Padres #Mets #Yankees #RedSox #Rays #Cubs #Dodgers #Phillies among the teams in the mix. Potential income from endorsements, chances to win & pitching development will be 3 key factors in his…
— Jim Bowden ️ ( @JimBowdenGM ) December 9, 2024

LoneStarPhan 2024-12-09 18:22:51 UTC #99

Phillies have been in the mix before, but until they actually sign a posted player from Japan, I am not getting excited

bkeich 2024-12-09 18:24:33 UTC #100

I am afraid I read too much into us being listed 8th. There is only 1 pitcher in this sweepstakes. I am with LSP, gotta have some success in this arena before I take it at all serious.

zambonir 2024-12-09 18:29:15 UTC #101

"chances to win and pitching development" are good! I hope the Phillies can work on some local or regional endorsements too, even if the real $ there is with larger corporations and in Japan.