And what’s the luxury tax hit - another $25 million on top of the $51 million a year? When money doesn’t prevent you from doing what you want, well, there’s no excuse not to.
Kind of makes me hope the Phils lean into pitching, and setting up a next generation to pair with Wheeler and Nola (Painter and Crochett please)
Big overpay for Soto for sure. How much better does it make the Mets. The answer is probably not much at all. Alonso has not resigned and word is he may be signing elsewhere. They lost several starting pitchers. They are experimenting with Clay Holmes becoming a starter and overpaid him to do that. They are going to need to spend more a lot more to get themselves in Dodger territory as far as talent goes.
For the moment I believe the Mets' payroll is still lower than the Phillies' payroll, even with Soto.
So, using $10M/ WAR, 76.5 WAR. over 15 seasons or 5.1 WAR per year. Yea, that is not happening for that long of a time I suspect, especially for someone not known for defense.
Now, if you say $15M /WAR that makes it 3.4 WAR/ Season. That might happen.
Either way for the next 6-8 years the Mets just got much, much better. Not good.
By the time this contract ends he wont even be in the top 30 AAV if things keep going like they are. Of course the TV / Streaming contracts could significantly dry up and the Mets would be in huge trouble. Of course, the whole league would be also.
Mets owner Steve Cohen has a net worth of 21 Billion. If the tv contracts dry up, the Mets are probably in the best shape
True, the teams owned by the ridiculously wealthy would not be hurting, of course he didn’t get to $21B by owning things that lose money either (even with value of franchise included). If the team loses too much he may cash out.
I get the sense that MLB owners are bullish on the streaming future. We've already seen some less likely teams throwing money around a little bit. And also, the big market teams (the Yankees but probably the Phillies too) will likely fight to maintain their rights or a larger share.
But you don't sign Juan Soto thinking about WAR per dollar (or year). You sign him because he's a superstar. He's gonna generate cash for several years even if the Mets don't start winning more, and even more cash if they do. And of course they know he won't be worth the last five years but that's SOP (both in terms of AAV and the price of big-ticket free agency).
I read that Soto has an out after five years. If the market changes and he continues to be a stud he may pull an AROD.
Middleton had a good response when asked if he needed the Phillies to make him money - he said something to the effect that he has his other businesses to make money so that he can own the Phillies - implying that profit is not important. I suspect cohen feels the same way if not more.
I think it's more that his business already made money, and his money is making money. And clearly he has been bringing in new investors who are on board with his approach, whereas the Bucks were maybe not comfortable continuing to assume the same level of spending/risk at their previous ownership share.
Cohen just doesn't care at all. He has the money, and gambling with it is also what he does for a living. Plus he's a fan. He'll own the Mets until he dies (or is convicted of more crimes. So I guess he does like to mitigate his risk when he can).
The Sasaki Sweepstakes replaces the Soto Sweepstakes. He falls under the international FA rules so the number will be much lower, currently limited to around $7M bonus by teams.
Dare I hope? Yea, not a chance as usual with Japanese players.
The choice of whether Soto leaves by exercising his opt-out clause after five years ultimately will rest with the team, not the player. The Mets, according to a source briefed on the terms of his contract, can void Soto’s opt-out by escalating his average annual value from $51 million to $55 million over the final 10 years.
By then, Major League Baseball presumably will be in the middle of a new labor agreement, with new national television contracts and a more settled, lucrative local television landscape. Soto, if he continues to deliver peak performance, likely will be tempted to test the market again. And the decision for the Mets, as he enters his age 31 season, might not be as simple as it would appear.
These parts of the contract are usually more for show than anything else. I don't think the Mets have any intention of paying the extra $40 million here. It will probably be better for them to let Soto go somewhere else at that point and get out from under all the money (including luxury tax) that they would have to pay for Soto's age 31-40 seasons.
Soto can probably do better by opting out since the contract is front loaded. But the Mets will almost certainly do better if he chooses to opt out. So I wonder if this deal all the time was a 5-year deal for something like $325 million depending on exactly how it is front loaded.
Like Rosenthal says, the Mets will have a decision to make. If they don't want him to leave and the alternative is to sign him to a new five-year $60 million AAV deal they may just want to keep carrying the longer contract and worry about the last five later. Or everyone will still be offering 10-year deals then, if he's worth it.
Roki Sasaski is now expected to sign with an #MLB team between January 15-23rd. #Padres #Mets #Yankees #RedSox #Rays #Cubs #Dodgers #Phillies among the teams in the mix. Potential income from endorsements, chances to win & pitching development will be 3 key factors in his…
— Jim Bowden️ ( @JimBowdenGM ) December 9, 2024
Phillies have been in the mix before, but until they actually sign a posted player from Japan, I am not getting excited
"chances to win and pitching development" are good! I hope the Phillies can work on some local or regional endorsements too, even if the real $ there is with larger corporations and in Japan.
Soto is arguably the best hitter in MLB, right up there with Judge and Ohtani, and the latter two are on the downside of their career. Soto's position this off-season seems similar to Harper's when he signed with the Phillies, about the same age. But Soto's numbers are better than Harper's were entering free agency.
That said, the Mets really needed to make this move, because they're an old team. I think Soto is the third youngest player they have, behind Vientos and the catcher. The only other ones of significance under 30 are the other catcher, Peterson and Megill, who are 28.
He would have also been the third-youngest player on the Philliies. Difference is Mets still have a lot more money (both before they catch up to the Phillies' payroll and if they want blow past it).
Any long-term, big $ bet on a player can go south because of injury or faster-than-hoped aging, but betting on a true, still-in-prime star like Harper, Wheeler, or Soto is a reasonably safe bet if you care most about the immediate and short-term futures and plan to spend again after you pass the intermediate term to keep the team strong. A position player like Soto and Harper is the ideal bet. Wheeler was riskier but has worked. Given injury history I don't see Crochet or Trout as being nearly as solid bets.
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