Dodgers trade Gavin Lux to Cincinnati:
Meeting that revenue-sharing obligation. Still gotta wonder if he'll really be on the team by Year 4 (the first in Vegas) but I guess that's the goal.
8 days later
Figured I should move this into right place.
I'm happy to see the Phillies stay away from all high $ multi-year reliever deals. But 4/72 (18 million AAV) is still less than Hader (5/95, 19 AAV) and even Edwin Diaz three years ago (5/102, 20.4 AAV with an opt-out in 2025).
Granted they are still not guaranteed championship but I really feel like the Dodgers' combination of unlimited money, their deferral strategy (which allows them to invested the deferred money and make money off it) and their now near-stranglehold on the Japanese market is creating a new category of "have" - albeit one shaped as much by their creativity and baseball acumen as their pocketbook.
When Tanner Scott’s deal is made official, the Dodgers’ luxury-tax payroll for 2025 will exceed $375 million. That is about $70 million more than the next-highest team, Philadelphia. The Yankees are the only other team with a CBT payroll projected to be over $300 million.
— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) January 19, 2025
All the deferrals makes it easier for them to just pay the top-tier tax too. An ownership group like the Phillies (inherited wealth and independent businessmen) or the Astros (wealthy single owner but dozens of partners/investors) or the Braves (public corporation) still can't really compete with - or have the same appetite for risk as - a Guggenheim or Cohen type finance guy.
Fortunately, the most expensive team doesn't always win
The Blue Jays and OF Anthony Santander are in agreement on a deal, a source confirms. @jonmorosi had it first.
— Alden González ( @Alden_Gonzalez ) January 20, 2025
Anthony Santander’s deal with the Blue Jays is for five years and more than $90 million, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) January 20, 2025
That could be a bargain for the Braves. Maybe some doubts about his long term health? He is pretty young though. Just seems inconsistent.
I dunno, I think it's neither a bargain nor an overpay. He is 31, and was not a good LF defender. It depends if whatever he did last season at the plate is sustainable going forward though he'll still probably get on base decently regardless. The Braves' LF production last year was even worse than the Phillies' I think (from below: "Their left fielders as a group hit .229/.278/.364.") But he'd look a lot better if he was still a middle IF.
The Law analysis is a little more nuanced that that because he alludes to some of the batted ball data that suggests his career year may be a bit sustainable. He also questions why Profar should be so bad defensively since he has much of his infield skills except the arm. The sentence before what you quoted is also important:
There are a lot of ways this could go pear-shaped, but the contract is very team-friendly, and if his production over the next three years is worth even 5 WAR, it’s going to be valuable to a team that’s a perennial contender.
Getting 5 WAR over 3 years from a guy coming off a 3.6 WAR year is really not that much of a stretch, especially if the analytics behind his offense last year are not bad (as in all BABIP luck). Breakeven in value is also more like 4 WAR and there is a good chance they'll get 7-9 WAR out of those 3 years.
Oh agreed I just don't think he's likely to be a bargain. Nor a bust. Merely a fair value (in the general sense, not pure $-per-WAR). He'll be a bargain if he repeats that success for 2-3 years but even if the approach is sustainable he'll still be aging, and an injury risk along with that (like all free agents). MLBTR predicted him at three years $45 million. He didn't have a QO attached but that didn't seem to inspire anyone to go after him hard.
Pressly to the Cubs in a pure salary dump. He has lost a bit but is still decent. It is kind of odd that Houston is dumping salary when they are really a bigger market than Philly.
They are apparently moving towards bringing back Bregman after all. They have always punched below their weight as a market (a familiar thing to us), though Crane finally spent some money these past few years. I get not wanting two high-paid closer types taking up $33 million AAV between them but you would think he'd have value versus a long-term commitment (to Estevez, for instance).
The Astros farm system isn't terribly strong. You wonder if they are going to dial it down and try to rebuild, although good organizations shouldn't have to rebuild.
If they aren't competitive over the next two years they might rebuild but if they sign Bregman after already trading for Paredes and signing Walker they are certainly not rebuilding. Hader and Altuve and Alveraz are signed through '28 or '29. They just haven't been able to seamlessly replace their stars the way they did with Pena and Tucker and a few pitchers between the two World Series teams. They were never going to be able to keep both Tucker and Bregman. They definitely operate more like the Rays than the Dodgers, last year (and that Hader contract) was an outlier.
it is interesting to note how the Astros and Braves both usually let their premier free agents walk. But, as you note, both teams usually have had the knack for reloading at the position vacated by the premier free agent with a player they develop who turns out to be equal or better than the guy he replaced--or they use farm system assets to trade for a star player (like the Braves did getting Olsen and Murphy from the Athletics). They also have their constant "faces of the franchise" whom they keep far away from free agency (Altuve and Alvarez for the Astros, Acuña and Riley for the Braves). For all of their money, the Dodgers have also been fairly adept at reloading when they let a guy walk.