Minor League Games - Tuesday, August 7, 2018

[andyb]

It is not just advancing a level a year, it is performing well at that level. Why that is meaningless to you is a mystery. A player with his mix of tools was also supposed to move relatively quickly compared to his peers.

Read some of the comments around the time of the pick. His mix of tools was supposed to move quickly. That is what one expects out of a superior hit tool. When that hit tool turns out to be merely average he moves slower.

2016 MLB Draft: What they’re saying about the Phillies draft picks

[bigegypt0417]

It is not just advancing a level a year, it is performing well at that level. Why that is meaningless to you is a mystery.

Is Moniak not now performing well at his level? Or is the point you refuse to look at anything that doesn't actually fit the narrative you are presenting?

I really have trouble understanding why you seem to always need to paint the most negative picture you can to make a point. If you are looking for development of Moniak, you are starting to see it. Even when he was drafted the comps weren't exactly off the charts...they were Christian Yelich.

[Squire]

I just repeat what I said upthread. EVERY HS hitter (except 1) taken in the first round of the 2016 after Mickey Moniak is outperforming Mickey Moniak at a comparable or higher level: Josh Lowe, Alex Kiriloff, Blake Rutherford, Gavin Lux, Carter Kieboom, Hudson Potts, Dylan Carlson. Moniak is outperforming Delvin Perez

[phillychuck]

Squire and Andy are on-point here. That means we are hoping that Moniak is indeed a late bloomer, or that something was physically wrong with him (or mechanically wrong) prior to this season. That is indeed a possibility--his upsurge pretty much coincided with his wisdom teeth extraction, so there might have been a related physical problem.

So, as fans, we hope he's fixed. But as reasonable followers of the minor leagues in general, it's appropriate to note that Moniak is not performing as well as a 1.1 pick is expected to perform, or, indeed, as the other first-round picks from his year. It's completely fair to hold our scouts accountable for valuing him above those other guys at this point. If he keeps posting a high-800s OPS in the FSL for the rest of the year we can re-evaluate then. Until then, the Moniak pick is a mistake by our scouting department, to go along with the Randolph pick, but not as serious an error at this juncture.

[Austinfan]

I just think 20 is too early to make a serious judgment on a prospect, Ortiz is struggling in Lakewood, but he's 19, whereas Pujols looked awful at 21 - and has turned it around.

By 22 you have a much better read, because most players are physically mature, and have either 5 minor league seasons or 2-3 college seasons and 1 full minor league season under their belt. They can still be late bloomers, but the odds of a turnover become a lot longer.

The instant stars are outliers, most prospects make it between 22-24, or 23-26 if they go to college.
The few "slam dunks" distort perceptions, there was no slam dunk in 2016.
No. 1 picks 1990-2012 (first 2+ WAR season):
2012: Correa 20
2011: Cole 24
2010: Harper 19
2009: Strasburg 23
2008: Beckham 27
2007: Price 24
2006: Hochevar 29
2005: Upton 21
2004: Bush ---
2003: Young ---
2002: Bullington ---
2001: Mauer 22
2000: A Gonzalez 24
1999: Hamilton 26
1998: Burrell 25
1997: Anderson ---
1996: Benson 24
1995: Erstad 23
1994: Wilson ---
1993: A Rodriquez 20
1992: Nevin 28
1991: Taylor ---
1990: C Jones 23

[andyb]

Just as an example, let's take the player that Moniak is most often compared to - Christian Yelich.

On one hand the comparison is unfair because we are 100% sure that Yelich will succeed. But on the other hand it is an apt benchmark because they supposedly had similar tools when drafted (great hit tool, good but not great speed, good defense, uncertain power). Yelich was drafted #23 overall which is typical of HS kids with good but not great tools. While it is unfair to hold Moniak completely to the Yelich standard, we was drafted as a polished HS player who expected to move quickly.

Christian Yelich Minor & Fall Leagues Statistics & History |...

Yelich hit .312 with an 871 OPS in Low A at age 19. Then .330 with a 922 OPS in High A at age 20. He was in the majors the next year. Kids with a superior hit tool are supposed to move quickly.

One can say Moniak is a bit of a disappointment but still a prospect. It is apparent he has a 50 hit tool and not 60-70. Now 50 is still major league average. But it also means he'll need to develop more power or stick in CF with above average defense to be a starter. It is possible both could happen (20 HR power and gold glove defense). But if they don't he is probably a 4th OF. That is kind of where I see him now. Not a total failure but certainly disappointing compared to the expectations of the draft slot AND the tools that he was supposed to have.

[andyb]

Why don't you reduce your list to just HS hitters. Then tell me how many of them progressed at a quicker rate than Moniak. Probably most of them (not Matt Bush but he was in jail part of the time so that is another story). Just about all of them became stars also, for the simple reason that you don't pick HS hitters number one unless they project to be stars and have a strong combination of tools, performance, and polish. Moniak actually had lesser tools than most of the other HS hitters picked number one. So if he does not have the polish side, aren't you yourself saying with your list that he is a disappointment?

[Squire]

For what its worth, I am very very amenable to an argument that it isn't Almaraz and his identification skills as much as it is our developmental staff.

[bigegypt0417]

I just repeat what I said upthread. EVERY HS hitter (except 1) taken in the first round of the 2016 after Mickey Moniak is outperforming Mickey Moniak at a comparable or higher level: Josh Lowe, Alex Kiriloff, Blake Rutherford, Gavin Lux, Carter Kieboom, Hudson Potts, Dylan Carlson. Moniak is outperforming Delvin Perez

That's great...how does that change the fact that Moniak seems to be turning a corner and developing?

How does it change that pretty much every scouting service agreed Moniak was the best of the bunch. Does that mean he'll develop to be that? Maybe not.

The idea that a barely 20 year old is a late bloomer is odd...it's reactionary and it's very much a Phillies phan reaction. 2 months ago we had 3 consecutive failed prospects.

Other than Homeruns I'd love to know how Carlson is outperforming Moniak?

[Austinfan]

Moniak was never seen as a "#1" pick, that is, a player who was clearly superior.

In fact, that was one of the weakest drafts at the top, that happens all the time in sports, sometimes you get lucky and a star is there, sometimes you're choosing the tallest midget.

Also, how do you compare someone who plays in the California league with someone who plays at Lakewood?

[andyb]

But Moniak was drafted first. Even in a weak draft wouldn't you expect as least as much out of Moniak compared to the players drafted behind him? I just don't think it is controversial to say Moniak has been a disappointment so far. That does not mean he can't develop as a prospect. Just the progress so far is less than expected and behind most of the other HS hitters drafted in the first round that year. He was also supposed to be polished and the type of HS player who would move quickly. He was picked before these guys. Shouldn't he be keeping up with them?

BTW Dylan Carson has a 725 OPS with a higher walk rate than Moniak in the same league. .351 vs .290 OBP. That is more than home runs. And we are also comparing the first pick to the 33rd. That should matter.

[Austinfan]

I just showed that the players behind him aren't progressing faster, only the college players have reached AA and in one case AAA ball (I only looked at the top ten, after that it's more luck than skill, if anyone thought Trout was that good he wouldn't have gotten out of the top 3 picks).

The fact that someone is hitting a little better in A+ ball is meaningless, see if it's sustained to AAA ball.
Sentzel is the only one clearly ahead of Moniak, but he's 23 in AAA which isn't dramatic progress.

[zambonir]

It's not like Moniak was a huge stretch. All the teams in baseball thought he was a Top 10 talent and it was understood he wasn't necessarily the best player available because nobody obviously was and the Phillies chose to save money.

But it also seems obvious that you'd want him to be better. Just like you'd want Kingery to be a rookie of the year candidate this season after what he did in spring training, and with the contract, and instead he's not even the best rookie 2B in the division (or the best anything). You can only disappoint if you have expectations and neither Moniak nor Kingery have fulfilled them. That they might - and hopefully will - in the future doesn't make it less true.

But I don't think anyone needs to be fired, and the fact that he is coming around suggests the development staff knew what they were doing too, whether it was challenging him level-wise or working on his swing.

[allentown]

I've read all of this discussion. I go back to, and stand by, my initial statement that this roughly month hot streak has resurrected Moniak's prospect status. By that, I didn't mean that I thought he wouldn't reach the majors earlier, but I didn't think he was looking like even an average MLB OF. It looks like he has improved, but even with this month and a half, he still has an OPS 50 points below the average for his own team. He still has an OBP for the season (and his MiLB career) below .300. That's all disappointing, but it looks like he may have turned a corner. Disappointing as in the low-power guy who became the 1.1 in his draft because he was supposed to have a clearly plus hit tool ought not to have an OBP south of .300. He has taken a turn toward being a plus prospect. Had the turn not occurred, he would have ranked about 15 in my Phillies top 30 prospects -- not what anyone wants or expects out of a 1.1 pick, weak draft or not.

[Squire]

A month ago we were all convinced that Jhailyn Ortiz had "turned the corner" and he's 3 for his last 38 with 20 strikeouts.

[nycphils]

Right. Right now, all he’s done is have a good month, very SSS. I hope he resurrects himself, but that doesn’t mean the skeptics are wrong to be skeptical.

[Austinfan]

But you have to be just as skeptical about a player who has a great A ball campaign until they repeat it at the next level.

Many players struggle when they jump levels, one sign of a good player is their ability to adjust.
A few players have the light go on and they blow through the farm system.
Others make steady progress, no one though Hoskins was a top ten player until the spring of 2017 (BA had him #6 for the Phils). But Hoskins had 2500+ PA (college, summer and minor leagues) before he hit the majors.
Some have a great season or two, then flatline at higher levels, that's a concern with Cozens

Pullin looked like he turned the corner last year, then splat this year.
D Brown looked like a world beater, then the world beat him.
2010 at 22 he rips it up at AA/AAA, ranked #48 in MLB 2009, #15 - 2010, #4 - 2011.

It's too easy to get excited about a year or two, or rankings or some scouting report from three years ago.

[andyb]

Some have a great season or two, then flatline at higher levels, that's a concern with Cozens

Going from 719 OPS to 888 OPS this year is not exactly flatlining.

Also don't know why you keep pushing this narrative that prospects can come from anywhere and develop at different paces. You do realize that nobody is disputing this.

It also has nothing to do with the question of how good Mickey Moniak is as a prospect. Top 200 in baseball perhaps (near the end of that ranking) and somewhere in the 5-8 range for the Phillies. Our 5-8 range is not that good at the moment since we graduated top prospects. This type of ranking is disappointing for a top pick. I love Jhailyn Ortiz also as a prospect but I would also call his season mildly disappointing. More the last few weeks than earlier. He seems to have hit a wall and other elements like his walk rate and SB rate have decreased. He is still a good prospect, but not threatening the top 100 any more to me.

Part of the discussion here is about ranking and rating prospects. As Allentown said, it is disappointing that the number one pick in the draft with a supposedly superior hit tool has a sub-300 OBP. Even in his hot streak he has not drawn bushels of walks. It has to be disappointing when he is not showing what should have been his best tool. His performance is more of what you expect from a 2nd or 3rd round pick rather than a first round pick, much less a 1-1 pick.

[Austinfan]

i don't care about rankings, any perusal of BA's top 100 will show that only the top 20 has any predictive value, and usually because they're players in the high minors on the verge of the majors. And lot's of misses - just look at Phillies ranked (and unranked) BA 100 players.

Hoskins wasn't ranked until 2017, SD? How about Pivetta, Eflin and Velasquez? None made the BA top 100.
Velaquez was #4 and #6 with Houston
Eflin was #13 in Philly
Pivetta was #10 Wash, #9 and #13 in Philly

On the other hand, JP Crawford was #78, #14, #6, #12, #16 - still waiting . . .
Jake Thompson #75
Randolph #88
Knapp #96
Biddle #89, #71
May #69
D Brown #48, #15, #4
Drabek #25
M Taylor #29
Marson #66
Donald #69

[andyb]

i don't care about rankings,

We get that. But one needs to start somewhere. The rankings have much more predictive value than you imply. That does not mean they are by any means perfect.

Instead of complaining about other people saying a prospect is disappointing, why don't you tell us where you think Moniak ranks in the Phillies organization, in all of baseball, and relative to the other prospects he was drafted directly ahead of? I and others have given our reasons (stats, disappointing hit tool). At some point if you have a contrasting opinion it would be helpful to say why. It is less helpful to keep saying rankings are meaningless on a board whose purpose in part is to discuss how good various prospects are.