Minor League Games - Tuesday, August 7, 2018

[andyb]

Expectations, like it or not, are based in part on where he was drafted (1-1) and his bonus ($6.1 million).

We picked him first. Arguably his expectations should be higher than all the picks after him, especially the HS hitters he was measured against. Moniak can still be a good prospect and not meet expectations which is where I see him now. The hit tool has been partially a mirage. That does not mean it is not at least average and he has other plus tools like speed and defense that make him a decent prospect. All that can be true side by side with expecting more out of him.

[bigegypt0417]

The hit tool has been partially a mirage.

What's the mirage?

If you look at his last month he's slashing at 301/367/515 and an OPS at 881

It's a month but it's the best stretch of baseball he's had.

he's play in to next season at 20 years old and may be at reading.

[California_Dreamin]

IIRC, many scouts compared him to Brett Butler and I could easily see that happening. Now, Butler was never the first player drafted and never would have been. But he was a solid major league player and I for one would happily accept a Butler type career from MM.

Also worth noting that Moniak must never be viewed in a vaccum, it was always obvious that one of the reasons the Phils chose him was so they could also draft Gowdy. In some respects, Gowdy's injury was the worst case scenario for MM, if the young hurler were pitching like Medina or DeLosSantos right now we would likely be toasting Johnny A for such a brilliant move.

[Squire]

I'm pretty sure that Moniak wasn't the only path to being able to draft Kevin Gowdy. Seems likely that any pick other than Nick Senzel would have taken the same bonus that Moniak got at 1.1

[andyb]

What's the mirage?

If you look at his last month he's slashing at 301/367/515 and an OPS at 881

Yes you can cherry-pick a month. But in general he was advertised as having a great hit tool with the potential to add power. He has 45 BB and 198 Ks the last 2 years in close to 900 plate appearances. Scouting reports talked about a swing with some issues and contact has been one of them. MLB.com rates his hit tool as a 50.

When drafted number one overall he reportedly had a great hit tool for a high school player. Now it is graded as average.

Seems like a mirage to me. And a player with a 50 hit tool should probably hit .300 in A ball. Remember this was a tool supposedly in the 60-70 range when drafted. It clearly is not close to that even if he is improving over last year and earlier this year.

[baseballoldie]

For all those that believe players can't change and are what they are, here you go:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/how-jd-martinez-became-a-red-sox-superstar—and-the-astros-greatest-mistake/ar-BBLELvA?li=BBnba9I&ocid=spartandhp

[zambonir]

That's the hope with Franco right? He has the tools.

[bigegypt0417]

What's the mirage?

If you look at his last month he's slashing at 301/367/515 and an OPS at 881

Yes you can cherry-pick a month. But in general he was advertised as having a great hit tool with the potential to add power.

You call cherry picking I'm going to hope is trending. You'll always be right if you just choose to ignore progress in order to make your point.

He's starting to show that hit tool and he's also hitting more XBH's.

If he regresses back then you can be right but I'd rather look at the progress through the season.

[andyb]

He is playing at a level of maybe a 50 hit tool. One can recognize progress and also note that even in his hottest streak he has a walk rate less than 10% and an average around .275 (since July 1).

Is he better? Yes. Probably to the level where he gets recognized as a top 200 prospect in all of baseball. Is he a prospect meeting even 50% of the expectations of a number one overall pick (or even a top 5 pick)? Not really.

Progress yes. Top prospect no. I still have hope for the future but I also recognize what he has done so far in previous years and even this year. His hit tool was much less than advertised in the 2 years after he has drafted. It has improved some, but that is because our scouts missed the fact that his hit tool was only average in the first place.

[Austinfan]

Oh God, not every player takes a linear path from HS to the Show.
And sometimes a player far exceeds expectations - Trout.
Sometimes a player needs a couple years to adjust, the list is endless.

The point of age isn't that a year is a big deal, rather, it's a datum that helps you judge a player's progress.

Moniak has bulked up substantially from 18-20, that often requires a player make serious adjustments working with a "new" body. But his basic hitting tool was probably based on quick twitch reflexes, eyesight and eye to hand coordination - odds are he still has those skills.

Since he's only 20 in high A, it's far too early to jump to conclusions, the same with Ortiz being 19 in Lakewood. Look at Grullon in his second year at Reading at 22, big jump because he's only a year behind his peers.

I'm less concerned with absolute age than experience, Moniak has a little more than 1000 PA, most hitter's aren't ML ready until they get to the 2,000 - 2,500 range (including college and winter ABs). So if he starts to turn it around the second half this year, he'd be 21 in Reading and 22 in Lehigh, ready to be called up if he's pounding the ball with those 2000+ PA under his belt.

Top hitters in 2015-17 and their first good 120 RC+) ML season:
Trout - 21
Donaldson - 27
Judge - 25
Votto - 25
Altuve - 22
Betts - 22
JD Martinez - 26
Ortiz - 26
Encarnacion - 29
Cabrera - 21
Stanton - 20
Freeman - 21
Ramirez - 23
Pham - 29
N Cruz - 30
Bryant - 23
Goldschmidt - 24
Harper - 19
Lindor - 21
Machado - 23
Arenado - 24
Seager - 22
Dozier - 27
Rendon - 24
Rizzo - 24
Turner - 29
Blackmon - 29
Posey - 23
Springer - 24
Correa - 20
Beltre - 25
Abreu - 27
Zimmerman - 24
Bellinger - 21

There seem to be three general groupings:
Whiz kids 20-22, dominated by LA players and top draft picks
Mainstream 23-26, a lot of college players, but also LA and HS players on a "normal" development path
Late bloomers 27-30, some languished in the minors, others were meh ML players for a few years.
I was surprised how many late bloomers there are, makes you want to take a closer look at Meneses.

[andyb]

If the number one pick in the draft is a "late bloomer" then all the player evaluation people should be fired for drafting him.

It should not be controversial to say that Moniak's hit tool was less than advertised. This is the consensus position among industry experts. None of this means he can't make it as a prospect. It just means that he is not as good a prospect as he was supposed to be. When you draft someone number one you are partially drafting tools. Showing a long random list of minor league players does not change any of that or have any thesis really. Moniak is less than advertised. We misread the quality of his hit tool. It happens. Drafting is not an exact science. Even if Moniak makes it (which he might), we did not do a great job evaluating his tools.

[nycphils]

I don’t think it can be contested that he was a poor investment of the pick, no matter where he ends up (within reason).

However, my particular objection in this thread is the smugness of those who are so desperate to see Moniak succeed that they choose to denigrate those who have remarked on the disappointing performance thus far and what it means for the decision to pick him 1.1 because he’s had a good month.

Even if he turns out OK doesn’t mean the skepticism at this point is misplaced.

[Austinfan]

I think looking at top hitters, it is far too early to make a judgment on whether he was a good pick.
If he becomes a solid ML hitter at 23-24, that isn't outrageous for a HS pick.
And if he gives you a RC+ > 120 with positive defense, he's a pretty good ML player.
No. 1 pick doesn't mean much, depends on the draft, that year there was no clear consensus sure thing.
Only two players in that draft have made the Show, and both are pitchers, and neither have done much.
Senzel is hitting well at AAA but he's 23 years old
Anderson (20) is in A+
Pint (20) has bounced between A- and A ball
Ray (23) has good power numbers in the Southern league (AA)
Puk (20) in A+
Garrett (20) is injured
Quantrill (23) is in AA
Manning (20) is in A+
Collins (23) is in AA

If at 22, Moniak is in AAA ball putting up an OPS under .700, yeah, at that point he's looking like a bust.

[bigegypt0417]

If the number one pick in the draft is a "late bloomer" then all the player evaluation people should be fired for drafting him.

What?

I didn't realize there was a mechanism in scouting that determined the rate of "blooming"

I feel like sometimes in the face of logical conversation you pull out some strange points.

[andyb]

If he becomes a solid ML hitter at 23-24, that isn't outrageous for a HS pick.

It would be mildly disappointing for the top pick. Drafting first is different. Expectations are higher as they should be. And the number one pick is not just supposed to advance levels at the same rate as other number one picks. He is actually supposed to play better.

[Austinfan]

Only when the #1 pick is a clear #1 pick.
Some years, like when Moniak was drafted, there are a half dozen players considered pretty equal.

[bigegypt0417]

If he becomes a solid ML hitter at 23-24, that isn't outrageous for a HS pick.

It would be mildly disappointing for the top pick. Drafting first is different. Expectations are higher as they should be. And the number one pick is not just supposed to advance levels at the same rate as other number one picks. He is actually supposed to play better.

The success rate on #1 picks this century is about 50%.

That's even if you remove the last 3 picks due to lack of time.

[andyb]

What?

I didn't realize there was a mechanism in scouting that determined the rate of "blooming"

I feel like sometimes in the face of logical conversation you pull out some strange points.

The only fault is in your logic. A high draft pick should have both tools and performance. The Moniak pick supposedly had both. He was supposedly a very polished HS player that would move quickly. He had good but not great athletic tools. He is an above average runner but no Roman Quinn. He had below average power that we hoped would develop into average power. The tool he supposedly had was an above average hit tool and that has turned out to not be the case.

What is mind-boggling is that you kind of expect Moniak's development to be along the lines of a 6th round pick and not a high first round pick. So yes there is a "mechanism". It is when you draft a player for a specific reason (hit tool) then shouldn't you expect the player to excel using that tool?

As I have said, one can acknowledge Moniak's development and still feel he is disappointing. Be honest. Does he project as a major league star much less starter at this point? He really looks like a below average starter/4th outfielder at the moment. Not that Haseley is much better but at least Haseley was a bit lower pick so has lower expectations.

[andyb]

The success rate on #1 picks this century is about 50%

It is actually better than that. More like 65%. And the rate would be even higher if you accounted for injury (i.e. Moniak is healthy so the 10%-20% of players that have severe injuries like Brien Taylor have more of an excuse than Moniak). One also needs to account for some players picked #1 for signability like Matt Anderson. Others got higher bonuses but were picked later for signability reasons.

And BTW, even if 50% were true then wouldn't you call the pick a failure if it did not make that more successful 50%? Does Moniak get a merit badge for just showing up and performing below expectations?

1st Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft | Baseball-Reference.com

[bigegypt0417]

What?

I didn't realize there was a mechanism in scouting that determined the rate of "blooming"

I feel like sometimes in the face of logical conversation you pull out some strange points.

The only fault is in your logic. A high draft pick should have both tools and performance. The Moniak pick supposedly had both. He was supposedly a very polished HS player that would move quickly.

What is your definition of quickly for a HS player?

A level a year? Did you see some scouting reports that indicated he'd be in the majors faster than that?

I'm not sure I saw any reports that said his ML ETA was anything before 2020? Am I missing something?