Minor League Games - Monday, April 29, 2019

[kikutaro]

Syracuse Mets (15-9) @ Lehigh Valley IronPigs (16-7) 7:05 pm | Gameday
N/A vs. Cole Irvin (2-0, 1.82)

Final (Bottom 9)
Syracuse 7, Lehigh Valley 4

Notable

Lane Adams 1-4, 2B
Andrew Romine 1-3, 2 R, 2B, BB
Deivy Grullon 3-4, R, 2 RBI, 2B
Mitch Walding 0-3, BB, 2 K
Malquin Canelo 2-4, RBI, 2B, K

Cole Irvin 6.0 IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 4K, game score: game_score
Josh Martin (H, 2), 1.0 IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2K
Yacksel Rios (L, 0-1)(BS, 1), 1.0 IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 1K

Harrisburg Senators (20-4) @ Reading Fightin Phils (11-9) 6:45 pm | Gameday
Erick Fedde (2-0, 2.66) vs. Adonis Medina (0-1, 4.82)

Final (Bottom 9)
Harrisburg 7, Reading 5

Notable

Luke Williams 0-2, R, 3 BB
Mickey Moniak 1-4, 2 RBI, 3B, K
Darick Hall 1-4, 2B, 2 K
Josh Stephen 1-4, RBI, 2 K, CS
Arquimedes Gamboa 1-4, R, 3B, K
Raul Rivas 1-3, R, RBI, 2B, K

Adonis Medina (L, 0-1), 3.2 IP, 7H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 2K, game score: game_score
Garrett Cleavinger 2.1 IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 5K
Luis Ramirez 2.0 IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 0K

Clearwater Threshers - Off

Lakewood BlueClaws - Off

(click on the start time for box scores)

[Squire]

Deivi Grullon 3-3 tonight and now batting over .400 for the season.

[nycphils]

On the other end of the spectrum - no Haseley tonight, Moniak 0-3, now slashing .194/.247/.377 in READING

[LoneStarPhan]

It amazes me that both those first round picks struggle to hit .200 while low picked players and UDFAs do better. When do we know they are more Jeff Jacksons ? I was hoping this was the turn the corner year. I guess it could still happen but gosh, it is frustrating seeing multiple first round flops, especially a 1-1 pick.

[fish]

It amazes me that both those first round picks struggle to hit .200 while low picked players and UDFAs do better. When do we know they are more Jeff Jacksons ?

Is this a bad time to point out that out of all the active Phillies top international bonus hitters (since I guess Caesar Hernandez in 2008), only Grullon is hitting over .200?

[Austinfan]

Canelo is almost at .300 at Lehigh while all the big bonus LA IFs are struggling to get above .200.

Maybe they should just focus their efforts after the 1st rd and on signing as many low bonus LA players as possible?

[fish]

Maybe they should just focus their efforts after the 1st rd and on signing as many low bonus LA players as possible?

Or figure out who the Nats want to sign and try to outbid them.

[EDmuch]

Or start firing some scouts.

[teabag259]

You have to think that sooner or later we will hit on a first rounder in a big way. The law of averages tell me it has to be so.

[julio]

You have to think that sooner or later we will hit on a first rounder in a big way. The law of averages tell me it has to be so.

What percentage of the time do you think big hits are inevitable? Since 1965, the Phils have had 47 first-round picks (excluding supplemental first round picks). Twelve of them (just over 1/4) have amassed lifetime WAR of 10 or greater (two of those 12 are still playing).

Probably the best run was from 1997 through 2002 - all six of their first round picks in those six years are among the 12 with more than 10 WAR - and this group included their top three first-rounders (Utley, Hamels, Drew).

Since 2002, except for Aaron Nola in 2014 (16 WAR and counting), the Phils have effectively come up empty. A couple of guys are still playing, and could yet show some real career value (Crawford, maybe Biddle), and there are the three most recent picks, who haven't had time yet to establish what they will be.

To look at one other team (more or less at random), the Cardinals have, over the same period, drafted 14 players in the first round who have achieved 10 WAR or more. The last player they drafted who has reached the 10 WAR level is Kolton Wong, taken in 2011.

The Braves have taken nine players who hit the 10 WAR threshold; the last one was Mike Minor, drafted in 2009.

So, what's typical? What can, or should, be "expected"? I don't know the answer; a thorough analysis of first-round draft pick performance could answer that - all the data's available at baseball-reference.com

[nycphils]

You can count on the fingers on one hand the number of 1.1s that never played in the majors - Moniak is currently threatening to join that exclusive club.

[julio]

You can count on the fingers on one hand the number of 1.1s that never played in the majors - Moniak is currently threatening to join that exclusive club.

Actually, it would appear that you cannot (unless you're a mutant). There are seven 1.1 picks who show no WAR on B-R (out of 54 total 1.1 picks), or about 1 in 8. Now, five of those seven were drafted in the last six years, so it may not be as bad as that seems. (Although two of those five are Mark Appel and Brady Aiken, so I'm not holding my breath for their rebirth!)

There are five more 1.1 picks to whom B-R assigns negative career WAR (technically six picks, but one of them was taken 1.1 twice - in 1971 and 1975. In 252 games, he produced -1.7 WAR). There are 12 more who managed positive career WAR, but less than 10 total WAR for their careers.

[schooldoc]

Assuming he's healthy despite not playing tonight, I have some hope for a turnaround coming soon for Haseley. First of all, he hit quite well at Reading last year in a pretty fair sample of over 150 PA. Second, he's maintaining a pretty decent BB/K ratio (10 BB/14 K in about 80 PA) which suggests he's seeing the ball all right. If my math is right, he has something like a .220 BABIP. I don't know if that's due to him making a lot of weak contact, hitting into bad luck, or a combination of both. Point is, his track record and peripherals are predictive of some improvement coming soon. (I hope.)

Moniak, on the other hand....other than SSS, I got nothin'.

[bigegypt0417]

You dont have 7 fingers on each hand?

[andyb]

Though technically there are only 2 1-1 picks before Mark Appel that never PLAYED in the majors which is the statement. Steven Chilcott and Brien Taylor (who had an injury that limited him). There has never been an offensive player drafted 1-1 that has failed to make it.

Of course saying Moniak will never make it is very different than saying he will be very good. I think the odds are very good for almost any 21-year-old in AA to make it for at least a cup of coffee in the majors. High 90s percentage-wise I would bet. Now I would guess at this time it is less than 50-50 that he can become an average regular in the majors, but there is probably a strong chance he can become a 4th OF that plays all 3 positions. Still probably a 10% chance he becomes a good, above average player because he does have physical talent.

[allentown]

Probably the best run was from 1997 through 2002 - all six of their first round picks in those six years are among the 12 with more than 10 WAR - and this group included their top three first-rounders (Utley, Hamels, Drew).

Drew? That's just rubbing salt in the wound. Also, between 1997-2002 there has been a lot of change among the front office and baseball staff, almost certainly among the scouts as well. At some point we have to admit that our scouts are unable to identify plus position players and successfully develop them. We've just been through another round of massive instructional changes on the hitting side, so perhaps some of the problems have already been solved. Our problem involves both the domestic scouting operation and Sal's international group. It seems to revolve around the people at the top, because it is focused at the top bonus players, with successes on lower-priced guys such as Hoskins, where the higher ups likely leave the evaluation more to the area scouts. I think it's time to recognize that the Phillies organization has a serious problem, a problem which has caused them to whiff on their string of primo first-round picks. Except when they took a pitcher, they are riding an 0-fer. One can argue 'it's early, these guys may yet turn it around'. That's true, but for many of these first-rounders, it's not so early any more.
My brother and I were at the Sunday Reading game and couldn't help noticing that neither Moniak nor Haseley looked especially gifted defensively. We also wondered how Listi, who has done consistently well up until now, has fallen off the cliff offensively. In addition to Grullon, mentioned above, we have Franco, but he was signed back in 2009
Fortunately, our scouts and coaches are still doing a very good job with pitching prospects. Perhaps we need to focus our bonus money more on pitching and stop wasting it on position players, which we seem unable either to identify or develop.

[Philsmania]

Moniak and Haseley both started slowly last year, too but Haseley snapped out of it sooner last year. Moniak didn't get going until July.

For what it's worth and not to make excuses, the weather hasn't been all that good in the Northeast, with more than a few cool, damp nights lately. Not exactly hitting weather.

But yes, I think there is a very strong chance that even in Moniak's worst case scenario, he ends up having at least a cup of coffee at the ML level. His selection not working out well has been amplified by Gowdy getting hurt and Stobbe--and some of the other bonuses we got from the Moniak discount--also flopping.

[fish]

I will say I’m a big fan of the Bohm pick- he’s got what all the other failed picks and signings haven’t had- present size, strength, and ability to make contact, without the liability of being 260+pounds like Ortiz.

[andyb]

I have an open mind about the Bohm pick also. I may very well have made it myself in their situation. Much will revolve around whether he can play 3B though and I think scouts are very divided about that. The offense at Lakewood also does not mean too much. The 3rd pick in the draft should have a 900+ OPS in Clearwater. Hopefully he will do that shortly. There is just so much pressure to be worth the value of being the 3rd pick in the draft if one is doing it as a right-handed 1B. And I don't think we need that as Hoskins or even Harper will likely play 1B for the next decade.

[allentown]

But yes, I think there is a very strong chance that even in Moniak's worst case scenario, he ends up having at least a cup of coffee at the ML level

I think Moniak becomes a major league starter, although I'm not confident of him rising to even league average among starters.