Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[zambonir]

I don't know how to interpret what they mean that "the Phils might be feeling some pressure"...anyone? Pressure to draft India?

What does the BA item actually say? (For those of us who don't subscribe).

[allentown]

If that's who's on the board when we pick, then I want Singer. I also don't like the helium boys. I still think about how we fell in love with Jeff Jackson and passed on Thomas. I'm okay with Bohm, IF he can stay at 3B. I realize he's never going to be a plus fielder at 3B.

[teabag259]

Wasn’t Randolph a late riser in the draft?

[andyb]

Wasn’t Randolph a late riser in the draft?

A little bit, but most mocks had him going in the 14-18 range.

[Squire]

Sorry....the quote was why they were pegging Bohm to them at 3. something like "the Phillies have picked some players with questionable impact potential at the top of recent drafts and while there is still time for Moniak, with the Phillies not picking until he 4th round there is pressure to get it right here at #3. So why not stick with a college bat with tons of power which is one of the safest demographics."

[bigegypt0417]

Sorry....the quote was why they were pegging Bohm to them at 3. something like "the Phillies have picked some players with questionable impact potential at the top of recent drafts and while there is still time for Moniak, with the Phillies not picking until he 4th round there is pressure to get it right here at #3. So why not stick with a college bat with tons of power which is one of the safest demographics."

Have the Phillies decided they have enough high level arms that as bat is the way to go?

[Philsmania]

I would prefer the safe pick with the higher floor than the one with the higher ceiling.

[bigegypt0417]

I would prefer the safe pick with the higher floor than the one with the higher ceiling.

Well...that's how we ended up with our last two first round picks. The perception was higher floor with perhaps a lower ceiling.

[Philsmania]

I would prefer the safe pick with the higher floor than the one with the higher ceiling.

Well...that's how we ended up with our last two first round picks. The perception was higher floor with perhaps a lower ceiling.

In hindsight, that perception was wrong.

[bigegypt0417]

I would prefer the safe pick with the higher floor than the one with the higher ceiling.

Well...that's how we ended up with our last two first round picks. The perception was higher floor with perhaps a lower ceiling.

In hindsight, that perception was wrong.

So now looking forward you're looking for the same philosophy?

[Philsmania]

If they get it right, yes.

[bigegypt0417]

If they get it right, yes.

well...as long as you understand your request is also why we're unhappy with the last few top picks.

I might be more inclined to try something different. You keep drafting lower ceiling, higher floor guys and you end up with a whole lot of ordinary which isn't what you want with a premium pick...one you may not get again for a while.

[bkeich]

If they get it right, yes.

well...as long as you understand your request is also why we're unhappy with the last few top picks.

I might be more inclined to try something different. You keep drafting lower ceiling, higher floor guys and you end up with a whole lot of ordinary which isn't what you want with a premium pick...one you may not get again for a while.

That is true, but the variability is just huge. Nola was also a "low ceiling, high floor" guy and now he is looking like the ceiling is much, much higher than anyone realized. He is quickly turning into a #1 and a top 10-15 (at least) pitcher in the league, and is still on the "getting better" side of age.

Picks are picks, and in baseball the odds are just not good. I agree that going a little higher on ceiling to try and get a premium player is a good plan with a high pick, but I wonder how many guys that are multiple All-Stars actually were top 10 picks and how many of those top 10 picks really just didnt work out. Our last few have been pretty awful it appears, but Nola alone might make the last few years look OK.

[julio]

I would prefer the safe pick with the higher floor than the one with the higher ceiling.

Well...that's how we ended up with our last two first round picks. The perception was higher floor with perhaps a lower ceiling.

That's also how they got Aaron Nola...so it's not as if that approach can't work.

[Philsmania]

If they get it right, yes.

well...as long as you understand your request is also why we're unhappy with the last few top picks.

I might be more inclined to try something different. You keep drafting lower ceiling, higher floor guys and you end up with a whole lot of ordinary which isn't what you want with a premium pick...one you may not get again for a while.

That is true, but the variability is just huge. Nola was also a "low ceiling, high floor" guy and now he is looking like the ceiling is much, much higher than anyone realized. He is quickly turning into a #1 and a top 10-15 (at least) pitcher in the league, and is still on the "getting better" side of age.

Picks are picks, and in baseball the odds are just not good. I agree that going a little higher on ceiling to try and get a premium player is a good plan with a high pick, but I wonder how many guys that are multiple All-Stars actually were top 10 picks and how many of those top 10 picks really just didnt work out. Our last few have been pretty awful it appears, but Nola alone might make the last few years look OK.

Let's not bury Crawford yet. Is he the next Jimmy Rollins? No, he's not. But, if you get a solid everyday player out of your first round pick, you've generally done alright. Crawford should be that.

[bkeich]

Let's not bury Crawford yet. Is he the next Jimmy Rollins? No, he's not. But, if you get a solid everyday player out of your first round pick, you've generally done alright. Crawford should be that.

Honestly, I wasnt even thinking of Crawford. He isnt buried at all, I expect him to be a very good player and I think he is on track for that. I was thinking more of the last 2 drafts where our high picks are struggling mightly and really havent shown very much even last year. I am all in on Crawford....

[rkeden]

In the midst of the bad news about the last two 1st round picks, I can offer a smidge of good news....ok, maybe only a small smidge. Haseley had two outfield assists two nights ago. I am thinking that he must have a "plus" arm. Hopefully both he and our parent club 1st baseman can get their bats going after a bad April and start reflecting a "plus" bat. If I was 22, I would set a goal of "better each month" than the one before. It is a long season.

[Austinfan]

One never knows, Hernandez is ripping it at Reading when I thought he was dead, Pujols is showing signs of life, Walding has come back from the dead, Cozens is flashing rays of hope.

And it's early, when minor league players jump a level they often struggle for a month then turn it on, or not.

[zambonir]

We all make it sound pretty easy here on the board, as do the various online pundits. But even without the benefit of real scouting and analytics it doesn't seem that easy to me. I liked the idea of both Groome and Puk in 2016 but the huge unknown of a HS pitcher and the injury risk of a college pitcher (now actually a reality in Puk's case) drove them towards lower risk (and money saved for later rounds).

This year it doesn't get any easier. Does the fact that it's your only pick for three rounds make you go safe or bold? And how many newer people (in the analytics department, in scouting, Bryan Minniti) are involved in the process this year who weren't before?

[andyb]

Haseley had two outfield assists two nights ago. I am thinking that he must have a "plus" arm.

College pitcher so his arm should be decent at the worst, likely plus.