Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[zambonir]

Lots of high HS pitcher picks become stars, but many more get hurt so the average WAR from HS pitchers is less than the other categories. And this regime sure loves their moneyball analytics.

A probability-based approach to the draft is certainly not going to be satisfying to fans when one of the lower-probability scenarios comes to pass.

[julio]

A probability-based approach to the draft is certainly not going to be satisfying to fans when one of the lower-probability scenarios comes to pass.

This may be true. But what's the implication? Would a different approach, with a lower probability of success, be satisfying?

Or... is it simply that the draft is inherently uncertain, that no matter which choice is made there's a likelihood it won't work out... and fans just want to use hindsight to kvetch? Is this because fans believe they know something they don't really know? Or is it just that fans (or some of them, at least) routinely focus on negative outcomes, because moaning and complaining about perceived "mistakes" makes the fans feel superior?

[andyb]

This may be true. But what's the implication? Would a different approach, with a lower probability of success, be satisfying?

I guess the implication to me is that the team might use a rules-based decision tree to eliminate a HS pitcher for a lesser college hitter and overrule the scouts. Do you draft best player available, or the player more likely to be above average.

All these metrics are so hazy that it is hard to tell. Fans are not wild about all the shifts for instance. Metrics say the shifts are correct. But SSS stats actually have us losing runs on the shifts so far. It may disappear with a larger sample size, or it may come down to the fact that our shifts are too aggressive and costing us runs.

Back to the draft, I usually want higher ceiling players because stars win games and low cost stars that hit the majors at a young age are the inexpensive engine around successful teams (where excess money can be spent on more talent). I always figure we can use money to add decent players like Arrieta and Santana. But young stars will determine whether we win or not.

[julio]

Back to the draft, I usually want higher ceiling players because stars win games and low cost stars that hit the majors at a young age are the inexpensive engine around successful teams (where excess money can be spent on more talent). I always figure we can use money to add decent players like Arrieta and Santana. But young stars will determine whether we win or not.
...

I guess the implication to me is that the team might use a rules-based decision tree to eliminate a HS pitcher for a lesser college hitter and overrule the scouts. Do you draft best player available, or the player more likely to be above average?

I think I tend to agree... although we have to be careful. There was a lot of sentiment a few years ago that Aaron Nola was a "more likely to be above average" pick, as opposed to a "highest ceiling available" player. it comes down to a combination of "What is the ceiling?" and "How likely is it?" "Well above average" and "very high probability" may be a better option than "the sky's the limit" and "if we get lucky."

[zambonir]

I think if all else is equal with the scouts and the eye test from the GM (who obviously has a big hand in the higher picks) then of course I want the decision tree/probability. I am totally fine with saying we followed a good process and didn't get the desired outcome, as opposed to just, we totally mis-judged this player. In either case, if the outcome is bad repeatedly, you do have to change something, but it takes a long time to know that.

Analytics also clarify the BPA/need debate, I'd think. In that, you probably won't even have that debate if your analytics, not just your old-fashioned scouting (including personality stuff) clearly favor someone as the BPA. If it's a complete tie, different story.

[andyb]

I think I tend to agree... although we have to be careful. There was a lot of sentiment a few years ago that Aaron Nola was a "more likely to be above average" pick, as opposed to a "highest ceiling available" player.

At the time I agreed with the Nola pick. That was mainly looking at our current rotation being a disaster at that time and Nola looking like a pretty safe pick. I also was comfortable being safe with a lower ceiling at 7. With the 3rd pick I just want a higher ceiling. Or if we go "safe", I want a million dollars of savings that help us sign an overslot player or two later in the draft.

Haseley was a safe pick also last year. But he came with an OVER slot bonus. That was my only problem with that pick.

The experience with Moniak divides my sentiment a bit. I was on board with drafting him. Would have been fine with Senzel or Puk as well. I completely bought the "relatively high ceiling" descriptions of him that we would add power and was already very good defensively. And the hit tool was supposedly stuff that is hard to teach. Of course we are now finding out that it might be easier to show a good hit tool against HS pitchers with 1 pitch throwing in the low 80s. Moniak came underslot but I definitely recall it was not far enough underslot when we were being sold that he was among the top 5 talents in the draft and not THE top talent.

Safe versus risky/high ceiling is all relative. Some relates to the spot in the draft with higher picks really necessitating higher ceiling. The relative aspect is you still want the bonus to fit your projection. We overpaid to get Haseley. I asked why last year. And that seems pretty prescient this year as Haseley does not seem to be the type of talent worth going over slot for.

[Squire]

Bohm with a 5-12 weekend. Homer and 4 RBI

[kmc1019]

After the last 3 1st round picks, I don't see how the Phillies can have any confidence in their ability to judge hitting potential. Hopefully they can listen to voices from outside the organization as well.

RHP Alex Faedo now another name from last year's draft whom the Phils passed on and is excelling in his first full year.

[schooldoc]

Mize with a 15-strikeout, CG win against Vanderbilt in his last start. He's a lock #1 unless he gets hurt.

Singer with a 6-hit CG shutout at Texas A&M in his last start.

Singer is now 10-1 with a 2.33 ERA. If he's there at #3, he'd be hard for me to pass up.

[gmwannabe]

the phils have got to trade up to get #1! i'd give the tigers the #3, Colin Cowgill, Trevor Plouffe and even throw in Elniery. miss would look good in red pinstripes in 2 years. c'mon Matt!
gm

[phillychuck]

I think you're just kidding, gm, but in baseball draft picks (except comp picks) are not tradeable.

[zambonir]

haha what gave it away that he was kidding, Cowgill and Plouffe or Elniery?

[bkeich]

Nola looking like a pretty safe pick. I also was comfortable being safe with a lower ceiling at 7

Funny to read now of course because his ceiling has climbed quite a bit. We are now looking at a league top-15 pitcher and maybe even better. Just a sign of how evaluations, even of "mature" players like Nola are still pretty variable. Sadly, since him our variable has been strongly negative on top picks (so far).

[gmwannabe]

PC I'd still do the trade and Zamby, Not enough for the trade. ok, i would add eshelman. Now,what do you think?
gm

[phillychuck]

Don't want to give up on Plouffe so quickly.

[Squire]

new BA mock up:

1. Tigers - Mize
2. Giants - Bart
3. PHILLIES - BOHM (but India also a possibility) notes Phillies might be feeling some pressure
4. White Sox - India
5. Reds - Singer
6. Mets - Madrigal
7. Padres - Liberatore
8. Braves - Kelenic
9. A's - McClanahan
10. Pirates - Rodriguez

[Squire]

What do people think of India? Better numbers than Bohm. More likely to stay at 3B but maybe less power upside?

[fish]

What do people think of India? Better numbers than Bohm. More likely to stay at 3B but maybe less power upside?

I think he's a guy with solid tools and good energy that ends up not profiling with enough power to be what you'd want as a third basemen in pro ball. 6 ft 185 lbs- sound like a familiar profile?

I don't know how to interpret what they mean that "the Phils might be feeling some pressure"...anyone? Pressure to draft India?

[bigegypt0417]

What do people think of India? Better numbers than Bohm. More likely to stay at 3B but maybe less power upside?

I have always disliked late movers in the draft...I mean guys who were 2nd or 3rd round guys moving in to the top 10. India seems to be getting some love. I have no idea what they mean by pressure...it's not like there is ever a time when you pick #3 and its easy breezy.

[Philsmania]

What do people think of India? Better numbers than Bohm. More likely to stay at 3B but maybe less power upside?

I have always disliked late movers in the draft...I mean guys who were 2nd or 3rd round guys moving in to the top 10. India seems to be getting some love. I have no idea what they mean by pressure...it's not like there is ever a time when you pick #3 and its easy breezy.

I get the sense that was the case with Haseley. He came on strong his junior year and wasn't considered an elite draft prospect until late his junior year.