Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[phillychuck]

I agree with you. The question about him is whether he'll be more disciplined in terms of swinging in the zone as a pro--it's just incredibly rare that pros hit well out of the zone. Guerrero and Sanguillen might be the whole roster of good bad-pitch hitters. There really aren't any playing now. So that's what scouts will have to try to figure out, can he change his approach. The history of scouts trying to figure that out isn't much better than flipping a coin. Hope our scouts are better.

[andyb]

That generalization is not true though. Yes there are certainly batters who swing early and often and thus draw few walks and MAY strike out less. I say MAY because there are many examples of players with this approach who strike out a lot.

Where Madrigal is different though is that he hits for a very high average. Almost never strikes out. And has an "average" number of walks. This is more like Tony Gwynn and Ichiro, two players that hit for a very high average with an average number of walks and limited strikeouts. It is decidedly NOT a player with bad plate discipline. He is swinging at strikes generally and getting hits off those strikes. Maybe pitchers should avoid him more and his walks would go up. But until that happens if he continues to hit .400 then it is not like he is doing anything wrong.

AF boils everything down into how many walks a hitter draws and does a simplistic and often incorrect evaluation from that. Every hitter is different. Madrigal is a college Tony Gwynn. Whether that will translate into the pros is another question. The scouts seem to like him though so it is not as if this theory is impossible. A guy his size who has little power and is not special defensively really needs to be a good hitter to be talked about as a top 5 pick. Maybe he is not the hitter WE (the Phillies) need because we have so much 2B depth, but he certainly is a good hitter.

[andyb]

The question about him is whether he'll be more disciplined in terms of swinging in the zone as a pro--it's just incredibly rare that pros hit well out of the zone.

The scouting reports do not suggest this though. He is disciplined. He is not really swinging out of the zone.

"Speed doesn’t matter much if you can’t get on base but Madrigal excels in that department, with a superior batting eye and contact ability"

2018 MLB Draft: Nick Madrigal, 2B, Oregon State University

"His timing is exceptional, his pitch recognition is advanced, and he can handle fastballs on either side of the plate as well as quality breaking balls."

"He has plus-plus bat control and is athletic enough to incorporate his entire body into his swings without sacrificing much contact, which enables him to hit for opportunistic extra-base power. Even with 40 raw pop, the quality of Madrigal’s contact is so good that he could hit for average in-game power"

[bigegypt0417]

I will say I'd be interested seeing how he develops...but on another team.

[Squire]

I mean Keith Law is generally pretty good at the people that the Phils are and are not interested in. So I think I feel pretty good that Madrigal is not their guy and that its one of Bohm or Bart at 3.

[phillychuck]

Andy, I agree with you about Madrigal. I didn't realize that he was drawing as many walks as he is, so he does look like a Tony Gwynn-type player. In the pros the pitchers will gradually pitch you out of the zone if you're that successful--maybe that hasn't happened for Madrigal in college yet, and college pitchers might not be good enough in general to tempt him to expand the zone.

[fish]

I mean Keith Law is generally pretty good at the people that the Phils are and are not interested in. So I think I feel pretty good that Madrigal is not their guy and that its one of Bohm or Bart at 3.

I know they seem to like a guy with the 'hit tool', and that they seem fairly blind to the ability to identify a guy with a 'hit tool' that translates to the pros, but oofff- Joey Bart is not a guy with the hit tool. A half-blind Clint Eastwood would be bemoaning his "drifting hands".

[andyb]

I think Madrigal is a very good player. Probably worthy of the top 10 in a draft where 2-10 is pretty close. He may not be the right player for the Phillies since we are relatively strong up the middle, but I could see a team that might want him and project him as the type of player who would move really quick through the minors and be up in the majors by late 2019.

My bias at the top of the draft is always going to be for the higher ceiling player whereas Madrigal is a high floor player (like Nola was as a pitcher). Nola made sense because our pitching was weak at that point and frankly the 7th pick is lower than the 3rd. Madrigal may not be the right fit for us but he is a good player that definitely should be drafted in the top half of the first round.

[flyers19rw]

Right now pitching is premium in the game, especially starters. There aren't very many teams right now that have a quality rotation. Mize will probably go #1. IMO, the Phillies should take either Libertoire or Singer at three.
I get that Bohm is attractive since he plays 3B but he's not replacing Franco since he won't be ready for at least two more seasons at a minimum. The MLB draft isn't like that of other sports where the guy that you select first can be counted on to fill in for an immediate need. If Franco bombs out this season, the more sensible replacement for him would be Machado or Donaldson via FA.

[teabag259]

I’m with Flyers. Pitching is at such a premium. The Phils will have a ton of FA money available to get a 3B if Franco bombs out.

I’m all in on Singer or Liberatore at 3.

[California_Dreamin]

Nope, unless the pitcher is can't miss, I think you go with the hitter. Pitchers are simply too fragile and if there is one thing Sal has shown he can do its find pitchers. Draft hitters, let Sal sign the pitchers,

[allentown]

Draft hitters, let Sal sign the pitchers,

Sal's pitchers look good, but remain to be proven. The only guy whose done it at the MLB level as a SP thus far is Nola, and he was a well-worth-the-pick draft first rounder. The quotes from management about grow your own pitchers and sign FA hitters argues for taking a pitcher. Being willing to sign Arrietta lessens that imperative a bit, as it suggests some flexibility in approach Singer, if he's not over-used the rest of this college season, seems a fairly safe pick. Bohm may not be a whole lot safer. Of all the guys at top of draft, who might be available to us, Liberatore seems highest ceiling and close to highest risk. If you want safe and are willing to sacrifice on ceiling to get it, then I guess Madrigal should be your guy. Not the way I prefer to go, but he has talent, as high a floor as you'll find in this draft, and at least a reasonable ceiling.

[jimbomill]

Moniak , Randolf, Haseley, even Crawford --- I am not enthused about the Phillies organizations and selecting "hitters" with their first picks.
Nola, however, was a good recent example of not wasting a first rounder.

[Squire]

I understand the argument on attrition rate on pitchers but I also get that pitcher is a more valuable commodity when it pays off. I'd rank them:

1. Mize
2. Singer
3. Bohm
4. Liberatore
5. McClanahan
6. Bart
7. Madrigal
8. Stewart

[zambonir]

Draft hitters, let Sal sign the pitchers,

Sal's pitchers look good, but remain to be proven.

Yeah for a second I had to ask myself, which starting pitcher - or even current Lehigh Valley starting pitcher - has come from Sal? Has there even been a single major league starting pitcher of consequence for the Phillies from Latin America in the last decade? Carrasco the only one I can think of if you include guys who were traded.

[fish]

Contrary to other things I’ve read about him, on the mlb pipeline podcast either Mayo or Callis said they didn’t hear many teams thought Bohm would stick at third- that would be a game changer if the Phils felt the same way.

For whatever it’s worth,I know John Stolnis frequently parrots that Phils management has stated its their preference to “buy the bats and grow the arms”, but those were comments they made years ago when they just started. Not saying they’ve changed their minds, but their draft strategy doesn’t reflect it.

[gmwannabe]

i have this feeling. i'd go Libby or mcclanahan if mize and singer go 1-2. i also have a feeling that the phils don't think that way.
gm

[andyb]

It is a little interesting that I don't think we have seen any recent rumors on Liberatore. Maybe the Phillies are in the camp that his stuff is not quite as good as it showed early in the year, but to me he clearly belongs in the top 5 discussion and just about every rumor we hear is about college hitters. Just odd for a club where left-handed pitching is a bit of an organizational weakness too.

[Jeff05]

Or, alternatively, the Phillies front office just doesn't leak anymore. Not too many people anticipated the signing of Santana or the three-year deal for Arrieta. It makes perfect sense for the Phillies to draft a potential LH starter; it doesn't necessarily make sense to advertise that plan.

[andyb]

We were linked to Santana at the beginning of the free agent period and I recall posting that it was an odd fit with Hoskins. Arrieta was also no secret once we hit January and the price was going down.

For whatever reason the Klentak regime seems heavier on hitters with top picks than pitchers. I don't think there were lots of serious discussions about Puk as well when we took Moniak. I think they are shying away from pitchers that are not obvious picks like Mize because of the injury risk. That may actually be wise considering the success rate of HS pitchers at the top of the draft. Lots of high HS pitcher picks become stars, but many more get hurt so the average WAR from HS pitchers is less than the other categories. And this regime sure loves their moneyball analytics.