Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[allentown]

I shook my head at that comparison. I don't down-grade Madrigal for height. I down-grade him for lack of power and insufficient arm strength to have positional flexibility, like Kingery has shown. Altuve has put up back-to-back 24-HR seasons, while the write-up says Madrigal won't reach 20. If we were picking 1,20, rather than 1.3 without another primo pick, I'd happily jump on Madrigal. At 1.3 and after our last 3 picks, no thank you.

[bigegypt0417]

I shook my head at that comparison. I don't down-grade Madrigal for height. I down-grade him for lack of power and insufficient arm strength to have positional flexibility, like Kingery has shown. Altuve has put up back-to-back 24-HR seasons, while the write-up says Madrigal won't reach 20. If we were picking 1,20, rather than 1.3 without another primo pick, I'd happily jump on Madrigal. At 1.3 and after our last 3 picks, no thank you.

so my question is would you take a second baseman with the ability to be an altuve even if the Homers never get above 20? I'm not in any way saying he will but would you take that type of career at 1:3?

[phillychuck]

I'm answering for myself here, not Allentown, but an offensive player either has to have power, strike zone judgment, or exceptional contact/average skill to be valuable (by exceptional I mean someone whose ceiling is Boggs/Gwynn/Carew/Posey/Gordon(maybe) level of BA).

[Austinfan]

Yep, I don't even think that Hernandez is his ceiling, a switch hitting 2B with speed, great OBP who is developing solid gap power. Not only does Madrigal lack power, he also lacks top plate discipline, so he's more Ben Revere at 2B than anything else, .300/.350/.425/.775 is probably his ceiling.

He's already 21, so it's not like he's going to have a growth spurt.

That's not what I want in the 1st rd, I can sign a half dozen LA infielders over a 2-3 year period and develop a couple guys like that or better.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm answering for myself here, not Allentown, but an offensive player either has to have power, strike zone judgment, or exceptional contact/average skill to be valuable (by exceptional I mean someone whose ceiling is Boggs/Gwynn/Carew/Posey/Gordon(maybe) level of BA).

So what would you answer to be if....and it's not even an if that I think is realistic if the ceiling is Altuve with a little less power?

[Austinfan]

Altuve has put up 15, 24, 24 HR seasons, so he's not quite Joe Morgan.
But .928 and .957 OPS is pretty good for a middle infielder!
Now Altuve not only has good power, he's a hitting fool.

I'd be happy with a 2B who can put up .800-.850 OPS on a consistent basis.
To do so, you either have to walk a lot and/or have serious gap power.
.300/.370/.450/.820, i.e. an average walk rate or better with an ISO of .150 or better.

[andyb]

Not only does Madrigal lack power, he also lacks top plate discipline

Well, the guy has a .462 OBP this year and has struck out once so I guess he lacks plate discipline.
https://d1baseball.com/player/IAJzEsQS/nick-madrigal/

One can criticize his lack of power, but let's not invent stuff about him. If he is the best player then the team should draft him. I am not in love with the projection, but there are better baseball minds than I looking at him. He certainly is a very good hitter and that is important.

[bigegypt0417]

Not only does Madrigal lack power, he also lacks top plate discipline

Well, the guy has a .462 OBP this year and has struck out once so I guess he lacks plate discipline.
https://d1baseball.com/player/IAJzEsQS/nick-madrigal/

One can criticize his lack of power, but let's not invent stuff about him. If he is the best player then the team should draft him. I am not in love with the projection, but there are better baseball minds than I looking at him. He certainly is a very good hitter and that is important.

I missed that one...that is stretching the term "plate discipline" in an odd direction.

in 3 seasons he's k'd 31 times and walked 46...

[phillychuck]

Sure that player is valuable if he has a reasonably high chance of reaching his ceiling. It's always a question of ceiling and risk.

He has the third skill, ability to hit for a 300+ average.

[allentown]

If he was Altuve, with just a touch less HR power (say he puts up back-to-back 20-HR seasons, rather than 24 HRs), yes I'd certainly take that result for a 1.3. The write-up suggests that his ceiling isn't 20 HR. He's not likely to reach his ceiling. Your question is a little difficult to answer, because you are comparing what Altuve has actually achieved in the big leagues vs something less than that as Madrigal's unlikely to be met ceiling. So is that enough to induce to spend the 1.3 on a guy limited to 2B by below average arm strength? No, it isn't. The other things pushing me in this direction are these: 1) Sal seems good at finding small middle IFs, 2) as I said above, we have a lot of guys who look like they can be average or better MLB 2b, 3) it seems unlikely to get full value back in a trade for our excess 2b, baseball just doesn't seem to value low-moderate power 2b-only guys very highly, even if they are as good as Hernandez has been, 4)there are a lot of holes in the system at other positions, and most importantly -- there is another college hitter (Bohm) I like better and a pitcher (whichever of Singer/Liberatore is sitting there at 1.3) whom I also like better.

[xogfog]

Keith law mock draft 1.0 up:

1. Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn.

2. San Francisco Giants: Brady Singer, RHP, Florida.

3. Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State. "I've heard they’re primarily interested in college bats, including Bohm and Bart -- but not Nick Madrigal".

[bkeich]

I can't get interested in Madrigal either. He doesn't meet a need and I'm looking years ahead in saying this. In addition, he doesn't strike me as clearly the best player available. We have a very good 2B at present in Hernandez, whom we apparently tried hard to trade and couldn't get much return value offered. This write-up describes Madrigal as a 2B-only guy with limited power. That's not a high ceiling. We have guys in the system as young as Madrigal who can be future 2B for us, plus Hernandez and Kingery. Really, he sounds like Moniak at a lower defensive position. Given a choice of Madrigal/Liberatore/Bohm, I just can't see Madrigal as the BPA and in terms of need, he gets a zero.

Anyone we draft now is probably looking at being a regular in about 2023 or so, so to be fair we have no idea anyone that will be on the team then and what the needs are. I agree that you want a player that has flexibility in position if possible, but honestly this is the guy that we WANT the rest of the minors to get out of his way. I hope that the guy we draft this early is the best player on the team, so by that logic literally everyone position is a need because frankly we don't have anyone on on the team or in the minors that is that type of player (Nola, Hoskins maybe in the future). I don't look at need this early because the need is for a star, not to fill a whole in the organization or to complete a lineup.

Since we have basically failed on the last few top picks like this (even if they become average ML players, which at this point is probably optimistic), this is an important pick Best Player available, not guys who you just think might make it to the show.

[bigegypt0417]

Sure that player is valuable if he has a reasonably high chance of reaching his ceiling. It's always a question of ceiling and risk.

He has the third skill, ability to hit for a 300+ average.

I agree. Of all the picks I'm excited the least by madrigal...

[allentown]

I can't agree with that. A college player taken at 1.3 should be a regular earlier than 2023. That's 5 years after he's drafted. If it takes that long, it's a problem. Nola was a regular after 1.5 years, Kingery after 4 years, Utley after 4 years -- and the Phillies delayed his MLB start --- Howard after 4 years, Burrell after 2.3 years. Crawford did it in 5 years as a H.S. draftee and Hamels in 4.

You want an impact player at 1.3. Power helps a lot, so does, if not positional flexibility, then at least playing a premium position. The view of him is different if he can play SS.

[Austinfan]

Making contact isn't plate discipline, in fact, any hitter that good at not striking out should walk a lot because he can take pitches and hit with two strikes.

[bkeich]

Whether it is 2022 or 2023 my point is the same. We should not be concerned with "fit" with our current players

[Squire]

Kingery was in the majors less than 3 years after he was drafted, right? Drafted in 2015.

[bigegypt0417]

Making contact isn't plate discipline, in fact, any hitter that good at not striking out should walk a lot because he can take pitches and hit with two strikes.

You said he didn't have plate discipline. He doesn't walk very much but strikes out less.

[phillychuck]

Generally, batters who don't walk and don't strike out are doing so because they swing out of the zone and make contact. They're good at making contact, but they do so too often on pitches they can't barrel up. Thus, no walks, because they don't take enough pitches, and no Ks, because they make a lot of contact. Few walks and few strikeouts are not indicative of a future good player without significant power.

[bigegypt0417]

Generally, batters who don't walk and don't strike out are doing so because they swing out of the zone and make contact. They're good at making contact, but they do so too often on pitches they can't barrel up. Thus, no walks, because they don't take enough pitches, and no Ks, because they make a lot of contact. Few walks and few strikeouts are not indicative of a future good player without significant power.

It's college but he's either a very good bad pitch hitter or he's good at hitting the right pitches...he gets on almost half of his at-bats