Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[phillychuck]

I would philosophically go exactly the other way--buy arms, grow bats. If you do that the attrition is less due to injury, and you can buy starters that you know are durable, and don't need an adjustment period.

[allentown]

We've grown LA pitching. Unfortunately, not a lot of evidence we can find and grow hitters. Hoskins was drafted late enough, as was Altherr, that not a lot of evidence that upper echelons of Phillies management had much faith in them. Same with Howard. Utley was our last big score with a primo-bonus hitter, either in draft or internationally.

[Austinfan]

Hoskins and Altherr are good evidence we can grow hitters.
Crawford and Rudolph that we don't have a clue.

Though Williams and Alfaro should drive home that plate discipline/batting eye is as important as raw skills (bat speed, power, etc). Watching Alfaro, I wonder if he even sees the spin on the ball at times.

Buying pitchers only works if you can get them on Arrieta deals, the Diamondbacks are going to be eating a lot of bad Grienke seasons. Otherwise your best bet is safety in numbers.

One thing they're doing really well is finding young RPs, Arano, Rios and Ramos, with a bunch more coming up.
If you have a deep bullpen, you only need three solid starters and the rest can be just above replacement level since they only have to go 5 innings.

[andyb]

It has been awhile since we have spent a high pick on HS pitching. We definitely had a good run 15+ years ago with Myers and Hamels. After Hamels we have had mixed success. One could argue we did a decent job with Drabek but got unlucky with injuries (though note he still had significant trade value for us when we dealt him in the Halladay deal). Next HS pitcher was Biddle who I would also argue developed fairly well for a #27 overall pick to become a top 100 prospect before he got hurt.

The failure was Watson and Gueller though note they were picked 40th and 54th.

The one top 10 guy we have picked since the 1970s as a HS pitcher was Gavin Floyd. I guess he was a failure versus expectations. It is so long ago of course that there is not much evidence for/against whether we can grow pitchers. We definitely have shaded our higher picks towards college pitchers lately, but that might be injury risk management more than anything else.

[LoneStarPhan]

Biddle did pretty well in CBP recently, two scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts. Too bad he may have success with Atlanta.

[zambonir]

Of course the Phillies also had the questionable privilege of trying to develop what now looks like an all-time failed high draft pick pitcher in Appel.

I think you can count Knapp as a success too, another injury guy the Phillies got value for.

[flyers19rw]

Andy, Kevin Gowdy was a high D.C. Second round in '16.
Do we have any hopes of him turning things around Post surgery?

[andyb]

Andy, Kevin Gowdy was a high D.C. Second round in '16.
Do we have any hopes of him turning things around Post surgery?

Hard to grade Gowdy since he has barely pitched. I still have hopes for him. He is the type of guy who had 4 pitches so if he comes back from the TJ surgery (like an 80% chance these days) then there is no reason to think he can't be decent. Maybe a few innings in instructional league and then an inning-managed XST start next year (but maybe Lakewood by May). From all reports last year he was pitching pretty well in extended before he got hurt.

[Philsmania]

Biddle did pretty well in CBP recently, two scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts. Too bad he may have success with Atlanta.

Yes, but it took Biddle eight years to get to the show. Maybe he'll end up being a useful reliever and a successful reclamation project for the Braves. But still, he was a reclamation project.

[Philsmania]

Andy, Kevin Gowdy was a high D.C. Second round in '16.
Do we have any hopes of him turning things around Post surgery?

Hard to grade Gowdy since he has barely pitched. I still have hopes for him. He is the type of guy who had 4 pitches so if he comes back from the TJ surgery (like an 80% chance these days) then there is no reason to think he can't be decent. Maybe a few innings in instructional league and then an inning-managed XST start next year (but maybe Lakewood by May). From all reports last year he was pitching pretty well in extended before he got hurt.

The problem the Phillies will have with Gowdy will be time or the complete lack thereof to develop him. Even though he's hardly pitched, by the end of this season, he will have been a pro for three years giving the Phillies only two years before they need to decide whether or not to protect him on the forty man roster. With his pedigree, he should be in CLW already. Now, he probably won't be there until 2020.

[andyb]

by the end of this season, he will have been a pro for three years giving the Phillies only two years before they need to decide whether or not to protect him on the forty man roster.

He'll have 2 years to show whether he is worthy of protection so that is plenty of time IMO. Downside is that he will be on the 40-man for a couple of years before he is ready and that will take a 40-man spot. He would not be in a vastly different situation than Drew Anderson and Ranger Suarez have been the past few years, though I suppose one could argue that with the new regime and the 10-day DL it is harder to keep many young prospects on the 40-man if they are not ready to contribute at least in an emergency.

[Squire]

Mayo Mock Draft top 10

1. Tigers - Mize
2. Giants - Singer
3. PHILLIES - Madrigal
4. White Sox - Bohm
5. Reds - Stewart
6. Mets - Bart
7. Padres - Liberatore
8. Braves - McClanahan
9. A's - Swaggerty
10. Pirates - Kelenic

[Austinfan]

If Gowdy's TJ surgery goes well, he'll get his velocity back and maybe more, and he'll be physically mature when he gets back on the mound. And he'll have two seasons to study the game.
So if he's a legitimate prospect, he should move up very quickly once he's 100%.

If the Phillies take Madrigal, I'll scream.

[teabag259]

Yeah I just don’t see any way they take Madrigal. Just not a need or fit there.

[kmc1019]

As evidenced by the Phillies (but plenty of other teams and picks as well) , the major league draft is always a crap shoot.

A team should take the best player available. Always. No questions. It is foolish to make decisions based on current roster makeup.

I'm not advocating for Madrigal, per se, but if the Phillies rate him as best available when #3 pick comes up, then Yes - they should take him. If they rate him equally to another player - say, Liberatore - only then should a team take a look at its organizational strengths and weaknesses and make a selection based on "need".

[gmwannabe]

no disrespect to him, but they don't need a Freddie Patek Jr. i say pitcher.
gm

[Squire]

McDaniel says he is still hearing Phillies want Bohm at #3, scouted him at the UCF series (he was mediocre Sat/Sun by the way) but that the Phillies also had "heat" at Mize/Singer matchup.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm not in love with Madrigal. He's just not that "sexy" of a pick at #3...

The 2018 Draft Philes: Nick Madrigal

[allentown]

I can't get interested in Madrigal either. He doesn't meet a need and I'm looking years ahead in saying this. In addition, he doesn't strike me as clearly the best player available. We have a very good 2B at present in Hernandez, whom we apparently tried hard to trade and couldn't get much return value offered. This write-up describes Madrigal as a 2B-only guy with limited power. That's not a high ceiling. We have guys in the system as young as Madrigal who can be future 2B for us, plus Hernandez and Kingery. Really, he sounds like Moniak at a lower defensive position. Given a choice of Madrigal/Liberatore/Bohm, I just can't see Madrigal as the BPA and in terms of need, he gets a zero.

[bigegypt0417]

I can't get interested in Madrigal either. He doesn't meet a need and I'm looking years ahead in saying this. In addition, he doesn't strike me as clearly the best player available. We have a very good 2B at present in Hernandez, whom we apparently tried hard to trade and couldn't get much return value offered. This write-up describes Madrigal as a 2B-only guy with limited power. That's not a high ceiling. We have guys in the system as young as Madrigal who can be future 2B for us, plus Hernandez and Kingery. Really, he sounds like Moniak at a lower defensive position. Given a choice of Madrigal/Liberatore/Bohm, I just can't see Madrigal as the BPA and in terms of need, he gets a zero.

So I guess I'm trying to understand if I'm not excited because he doesn't hit for power and is short? There is a tweet in there from...I forget the name which says it's time to stop this fixation with height but I just think I'm looking for a higher ceiling...

This one

Kingery ascent, Albies doing his thing, Altuve, Gennett, Pedroia's career, Cesar Hernandez, Luis Urias killing Triple-A at age 20…how many is it gonna take before we stop caring that a guy is short if it's otherwise clear he's just good? https://t.co/3RiMcmvlyG