Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[zambonir]

it's baseball, ya never know. But the Tigers did trade two of their best players in late August, they probably "deserve" it. They have the worst run differential too.

[Squire]

Clinched no worse than 5th with the Mets win tonight (I think)

[California_Dreamin]

Looking good right now...Phils lose, White Sox win and Giants up 5-2 in the bottom of the 5th in Arizona. If this continues, Phils once again have the #1 pick, Giants are #2 and White Sox fall 2.5 games behind the Phils. Phils also picked up .5 game on idle Tigers tonight.

Still believe Phils have a very tough week ahead. Nats will be playing Werth and Harper and both will be motivated to get ready for playoffs after layoffs and Mets just seem to hit like Superman against the Phillies. Wouldn't be surprised if the team finished 2-3 over final 5 games and I can see Giants winning tonight and getting 2 of 3 against Padres this weekend at home when they celebrate the good byes to guys like Panda and Cain who were so instrumental in winning 3 WS this decade.

[California_Dreamin]

Squire...you are correct, Phils can do no worse than 5th and one more Reds win or Phillies loss will clinch no worse than 4th. Probably will go down to weekend and truth be told, Tigers have 6 road games that they could all easily lose, 3 in KC and 3 in Cleveland. They may end up with the #1 pick because it seems they have completely thrown in the towel, unlike the Phils, White Sox and Giants, who all appear to still be playing hard.

[California_Dreamin]

Giants won tonight, 5th in last 7 games so Phils now lead the race for #1!

[LoneStarPhan]

So it turns out that it might be the Tigers that give the Phillies the best run for the 1.1 pick. Five games to go for the Phillies.

[nycphils]

No more Nola hopefully. Can't hurt the cause to avoid.

[California_Dreamin]

LSP...yes, I believe you are correct. The Tigers have won only 4 games in September and are in complete free fall and are now my favorite to get that #1 pick. Interesting that Philsmania, I believe, who predicted a couple of weeks ago that the Tigers would get the pick. He may be right.

To me, it looks like a 3 team race, Tigers, Phils and Giants. Even if the White Sox go 0-6, and that is unlikely given how they are competing, the Phils by going 2-3 [ a real possibility] would still win the tie breaker with the ChiSox since the Phils had a worse record last year.

In fact, that is the Phils biggest ace in the hole right now...they lost more games that any of the other 3 "contenders" last year and would win any tie breaker scenario.

I love this team, and don't want them to get embarrassed, but I am rooting for them to lose every game for the rest of the week. That #1 means something, will be fun to talk about and ruminate on, gives them more money to spend internationally, and will allow them the luxury of selecting ANY player they want next June. This may not seem as important now but IIRC, Strasberg was not the otherworldly prospect he turned out to be 9 months before the draft.

Here on the Left Coast we knew about him and his potential but never envisioned he would become what he has. If someone steps forward this collegiate or high school season I want the Phils to get him, not bemoan our bad luck once again.

[Philsmania]

Sorry, CD but I have to disagree. I think this young core playing and winning together, especially the way they have been coming back in so many games, will pay significant dividends. This isn't like the last couple of years where a late-season surge would have been a futile gesture. Having said that, I do see some signs that the surge maybe sputtering out. Our lineup has gone into something of a funk, particularly as Hoskins--the new big piece--slumps while the league adjusts to him. At least he is saying the right things about needing to counteradjust.

Anyway, September 26 update:

Phillies 62-95 -- (15-15)
Giants 62-95 -- (11-19)
Tigers 62-94 .5 (7-23)
White Sox 64-92 2.5 (14-16)
Reds 66-90 4.5 (13-17)
Mets 67-90 5.0 (11-19)

If what others say is correct, the Mets are eliminated. But, we can conceivably still tie them for fourth in the division and keep our better pick.

[California_Dreamin]

Philsmania...disagree with me about what? These last 5 games and whether the team should win or lose them? Come on, my friend, no one will even remember these final 5 games unless A] someone throws a no-hitter or B] a key Phillie gets hurt. But we will remember these games if the teams success turns a potential #1 pick into a #3-4 pick and the teams that select ahead of the Phils pick guys who become stars.

Look, this is about the future, not the present, and I want to add a guy who can become part of the next contending team, a Singer for instance. He seems a fast track type of pitcher, much like Nola was.

And one more thing to consider. Johnny A and his scouts have probably been plotting their draft strategies for 2018 already and it would help the Phils in their off season planning IF they know they have the #1 pick and have a decent idea of whom they might select.

And I think the Moniak experience can only help them in this years planning, they are further along in the rebuild process and may decide it makes more sense to select the very best player available instead of a very good prospect who will save them some money for future picks.

Nope, I do not want one week of success to detract from the long view...and the long view is enhanced with a #1 pick much more than it is in winning 3 of 5 meaningless games against a Nat team preparing for the playoffs and a Met team ready for the season to end.

[zambonir]

Yeah it's hard for me to care whether the team goes 3-2 or 2-3 or 1-4. Maybe not 0-5. But it's not gong to demonstrably affect the adjustments, development of future of this group, whereas the draft position has a clear outcome regardless of how any one pick turns out.

Hey, Hector Neris hasn't blown a save in months, I'd certainly take one ill-timed home run in a 2-1 game over seeing the team (or the starters) do poorly overall.

[Philsmania]

Yes, there are definitely advantages to having the 1-1. But, they are not overwhelming advantages. This is not like the NBA or the NFL where tanking pays (though NFL teams aren't brazen about trying it like NBA teams do) and the 1-1 brings strong chance of acquiring a franchise player. The baseball draft doesn't work that way. For every Griffey, Jr., Strassburg and Harper, there are a couple dozen guys who were not drafted 1-1 yet became far better than the 1-1 who was picked ahead of them.

I never root against my teams, sorry. And, I really believe that this team playing well with its young core coming together is not useless, futile gesture.

And, I don't care, I want to avoid a 100 loss season! Let's keep that streak going!

[allentown]

I think a 100-loss season might be just the thing to embarrass the owners/senior management into doing what is necessary to speed the Phillies back to contention. Some nice, round numbers stick in the mind and spur action in a way that a 98-win season can't.

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir is entirely correct, any wins this week will not demonstrably change the off season planning but getting the #1 pick will. And dog gone it, the Phils have been last for most of the year and it would be crummy if they lost that honor in the last week of the season, especially to either the Giants [who have won 3 WS this decade] or the Tigers [who were trying to make the playoffs as recently as July.]

I want that #1 pick.

[zambonir]

There's nothing new we can say about this, but for me it's not about the 1-1 pick, it's about all 40 rounds, the players and the money. If it's the 11th round and there's a player Almaraz wants at the top that he couldn't get if they were third, or a kid he can get at some point with an extra $100,000, that's inarguably a good thing.

So is winning, of course, in a different way.

OTOH, I also feel like there's been a bit of irrational exuberance about 2018 that has quieted some now that Hoskins has hit his first bump. This team has gone 33-37 in the second half. I can't help but think that if they'd put up a second-half record of 40-35 we wouldn't be talking about Mackanin's job security and we might be talking about Freddy's contract extension and trading Kingery for a pitcher. So if you want Mackanin out and JP Crawford standing at SS on Opening Day, a bit of a correction is also good in that sense.

[allentown]

I don't expect playoffs in 2018, but if we add two good pitchers (could be SP and reliever) with the young lineup and Kingery coming along later in the year, I think 85 wins is something to shoot for. I don't see a point in keeping Mackanin. He won't be the manager of the future. I think it's good for the young team/manager to progress together. Pete just seems a distraction to me for another season or two, as in what's the point and then as the team is beginning to gel we do a manager change a year or two from now. That just doesn't seem reasonable.

[zambonir]

I'm okay with it either way. Let's face it, this is a PR decision. What makes ownership and management look better, hiring a new manager now and then only winning 80 games next year? Or keeping Mackanin, which gives you the option to fire him (either mid-season or at the end) if they aren't an over-.500 team.

I do think Mackanin is perfectly capable of managing the right roster to 84-86 wins.But it's always been fairly obviously he would end up like Francona or Bo Porter, not getting to stick around for the good times. That's also partly because of his age, if he was only 50, I think he actually has done a good enough job to get another gig. The Pirates were clearly wrong not to keep him (which is to say, two managers over the next 10 years didn't do any better), and I don't think he would have had any trouble out-managing Dusty in Cincinnati either.

[Austinfan]

What will be, will be.
They're pretty much locked into #3 or better, and that's gonna land a pretty good college player for 2021, or HS player for 2022-23.
So I'm not losing much sleep, and they'll have a couple more solid picks in the top 100.
They've also had another good LA campaign, spent extra money and in Sal we trust.

How this plays out has more to do with scouting and luck than minor shifts in position.
I mean Darick Hall in the 14th round, Martin in the 4th round, Hoskins in the 5th round? All college 1B, yet look at the difference in results.
If Ortiz is the real thing, no one will care about whether Moniak ever starts for us.
And if Quinn gets healthy, Randolph will be an afterthought.

I'm actually more interested in the prospects that Klentak can hopefully land in December trades, often the best players on teams are prospects they trade for, because scouts have a minor league track record and a sense of how they're developing.

But it's all good, we're going to get another solid infusion of talent into a top farm system, and hopefully an upgrade from trades.
As long as we keep moving forward, "What, Me Worry?"

[California_Dreamin]

Looks like we are going to lose a game to all three contenders, ChiSox and Tigers losing late [and badly in the case of Chicago] and Giants are losing early.

[Squire]

Clinched no worse than 5th