September 27 update:
Giants 62-96 -- (11-19)
Tigers 62-95 .5 (7-23)
Phillies 63-95 1 (16-14)
White Sox 64-93 2.5 (13-17)
Reds 66-91 4.5 (13-17)
After games of 9/27:
Giants 62-97 .390
Tigers 62-96 .392
Phillies 64-95 .403
White Sox 65-93 .411
Reds 67-91 .424
It is looking more and more likely that the Phillies will not get the 1.1 pick.
Tigers lose 9th in a row. Clearly, by firing the manager and leaving him in place to finish the season, they enhanced their draft position.
With games back added to the above. Zoinks, we're two back now. Elimination number of one for the 1-1 (Phillies win + Giants loss). Tigers now at 6-24 in their last thirty while the Giants are also only 10-20. I guess we can't get the 1-1 if we play at a clip better than a .333 winning percentage.. Let's face it, at this point, this Phillies team is probably well better than that. Yes, we are playing over .400 ball now.
In the event of a tie with the Reds at the end (we win our last three while they lose their last four), how does the tiebreaker work?
In other words then, Reds win the higher pick on account of their 68-94 record versus our 71-91 record in 2016?
I think if we lose one more game we lock in #3.
Which is fine, if we can't land a top prospect at that spot, and another solid pick at #33+ (depending on comp picks), we need new scouts/GM.
Not quite. White Sox are only 1.5 behind us and have one more game in hand than we do. If we go 2-1 from here on out and they go 0-4, they sneak past us for at least #3. White Sox are not yet mathematically eliminated from contention for the 1-1..
Tigers win. White Sox win. Reds lose.
Giants and Phillies off.
So
Giants 62-97 .390
Tigers 63-96 .396 1.0 GB for pick 1.1
Phillies 64-95 .403 2.0 GB
White Sox 66-93 .415 4.0 GB
Reds 67-92 .421 5.0 GB
Each team has 3 games remaining, so the White Sox and Reds are no longer in the running for pick 1.1, but the White Sox could pass the Phillies and the Reds could tie with them. The Phillies take a tie with the White Sox but lose the pick to the Reds in the event of a tie, based on 2017 draft order.
Getting 3rd or 4th might not be fatal to getting the guy you want in any event. You don't really know how it shakes out. I think the 2017 draft could fairly being interpreted as the Rays outbidding the Twins on McKay and the Braves outbidding the Twins on Wright. However, the Phillies would/might have to sacrifice a bit on later round picks.
Anyway, let's get swept.
Ya know, Squire, though I don't believe it will happen, a sweep by the Mets might get the Phils that #1 pick. I could easily see the Giants, in a very moving and inspirational "good bye to many of their WS heroes" weekend, winning 2 of 3 against the Padres, who look like they are packing it in for the winter.
And even though the Bad News Bears might have a easier time winning right now that the Tigers, the Twins probably will rest many of their regulars and its not impossible to see the Tigers win 1, like they just did in KC.
Of course, I simply cannot see the Phils getting swept by the Mets, not this Met team that is without many of the players who have bedeviled the Phils for the past two seasons. Harvey has been dreadful, DeGroom will probably win and who knows about the final game?
Again, I am conflicted. My Phillie instincts always are happiest when I see they are either leading, or have won, but my long term interests in the club tell me to just accept the defeats, hope for no injuries, and root for the Giants and Tigers.
In actually, it could all be over tonight.
There are definitely advantages to having the 1-1 pick, no question. However, I just don't believe that they are overwhelming advantages. Hence, those who are getting their underwear in a twist over the Phillies' good play of late, probably need to relax just a bit. I, for one, am enjoying this good run.
FWIW, Baseball America has just published (separate) updated 2018 Top 50 Draft Prospect lists for college and high school, respectively. There's no way to assess their potential rankings if the lists were combined. Some surprises include ranking HS RHP Kumar Rocker lower than previous lists as well as steep decline for one-time-compared-to-Bryce-Harper 1B/OF Seth Beer. RHPs Brady Singer and Ethan Hankins sit atop their respective lists:
College:
High school:
It'd be nice to get #2 at this point. I mean, if they have a guy they like, every pick ahead of them is a chance to not get him.
And the difference between 1 and 3 last year was more than $1 million. Between 2 and 3, $500K.
But the total bonus allotment difference not nearly as dramatic (and includes other factors of course).
