Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

Philsmania 2017-09-27 17:07:11 UTC #303

September 27 update:

Giants 62-96 -- (11-19)
Tigers 62-95 .5 (7-23)
Phillies 63-95 1 (16-14)
White Sox 64-93 2.5 (13-17)
Reds 66-91 4.5 (13-17)

Squire 2017-09-27 23:16:02 UTC #304

Giants blew a 3-1 lead in the 9th to lose. Fix is in

LoneStarPhan 2017-09-28 04:43:35 UTC #305

After games of 9/27:

Giants 62-97 .390
Tigers 62-96 .392
Phillies 64-95 .403
White Sox 65-93 .411
Reds 67-91 .424

It is looking more and more likely that the Phillies will not get the 1.1 pick.

Tigers lose 9th in a row. Clearly, by firing the manager and leaving him in place to finish the season, they enhanced their draft position.

Squire 2017-09-28 12:55:45 UTC #306

At this point I;m just hoping to get to #3 I think.

Philsmania 2017-09-28 14:56:28 UTC #307

With games back added to the above. Zoinks, we're two back now. Elimination number of one for the 1-1 (Phillies win + Giants loss). Tigers now at 6-24 in their last thirty while the Giants are also only 10-20. I guess we can't get the 1-1 if we play at a clip better than a .333 winning percentage.. Let's face it, at this point, this Phillies team is probably well better than that. Yes, we are playing over .400 ball now.

In the event of a tie with the Reds at the end (we win our last three while they lose their last four), how does the tiebreaker work?

allentown 2017-09-28 15:00:24 UTC #308

Last season record.

Philsmania 2017-09-28 15:01:58 UTC #309

In other words then, Reds win the higher pick on account of their 68-94 record versus our 71-91 record in 2016?

Austinfan 2017-09-28 15:54:42 UTC #310

I think if we lose one more game we lock in #3.
Which is fine, if we can't land a top prospect at that spot, and another solid pick at #33+ (depending on comp picks), we need new scouts/GM.

gmwannabe 2017-09-28 16:43:59 UTC #311

i guess it looks like singer isn't coming the phils way.
gm

Philsmania 2017-09-28 18:16:52 UTC #312

Not quite. White Sox are only 1.5 behind us and have one more game in hand than we do. If we go 2-1 from here on out and they go 0-4, they sneak past us for at least #3. White Sox are not yet mathematically eliminated from contention for the 1-1..

bigegypt0417 2017-09-29 03:31:22 UTC #313

White Sox won.

LoneStarPhan 2017-09-29 04:23:59 UTC #314

Tigers win. White Sox win. Reds lose.

Giants and Phillies off.

Giants 62-97 .390
Tigers 63-96 .396 1.0 GB for pick 1.1
Phillies 64-95 .403 2.0 GB

White Sox 66-93 .415 4.0 GB
Reds 67-92 .421 5.0 GB

Each team has 3 games remaining, so the White Sox and Reds are no longer in the running for pick 1.1, but the White Sox could pass the Phillies and the Reds could tie with them. The Phillies take a tie with the White Sox but lose the pick to the Reds in the event of a tie, based on 2017 draft order.

Squire 2017-09-29 13:12:23 UTC #315

Getting 3rd or 4th might not be fatal to getting the guy you want in any event. You don't really know how it shakes out. I think the 2017 draft could fairly being interpreted as the Rays outbidding the Twins on McKay and the Braves outbidding the Twins on Wright. However, the Phillies would/might have to sacrifice a bit on later round picks.

Anyway, let's get swept.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-29 13:20:44 UTC #316

Ya know, Squire, though I don't believe it will happen, a sweep by the Mets might get the Phils that #1 pick. I could easily see the Giants, in a very moving and inspirational "good bye to many of their WS heroes" weekend, winning 2 of 3 against the Padres, who look like they are packing it in for the winter.

And even though the Bad News Bears might have a easier time winning right now that the Tigers, the Twins probably will rest many of their regulars and its not impossible to see the Tigers win 1, like they just did in KC.

Of course, I simply cannot see the Phils getting swept by the Mets, not this Met team that is without many of the players who have bedeviled the Phils for the past two seasons. Harvey has been dreadful, DeGroom will probably win and who knows about the final game?

Again, I am conflicted. My Phillie instincts always are happiest when I see they are either leading, or have won, but my long term interests in the club tell me to just accept the defeats, hope for no injuries, and root for the Giants and Tigers.

In actually, it could all be over tonight.

Philsmania 2017-09-29 15:00:47 UTC #317

There are definitely advantages to having the 1-1 pick, no question. However, I just don't believe that they are overwhelming advantages. Hence, those who are getting their underwear in a twist over the Phillies' good play of late, probably need to relax just a bit. I, for one, am enjoying this good run.

kmc1019 2017-09-29 15:35:07 UTC #318

FWIW, Baseball America has just published (separate) updated 2018 Top 50 Draft Prospect lists for college and high school, respectively. There's no way to assess their potential rankings if the lists were combined. Some surprises include ranking HS RHP Kumar Rocker lower than previous lists as well as steep decline for one-time-compared-to-Bryce-Harper 1B/OF Seth Beer. RHPs Brady Singer and Ethan Hankins sit atop their respective lists:

College:

High school:

zambonir 2017-09-29 16:48:00 UTC #319

It'd be nice to get #2 at this point. I mean, if they have a guy they like, every pick ahead of them is a chance to not get him.

And the difference between 1 and 3 last year was more than $1 million. Between 2 and 3, $500K.

But the total bonus allotment difference not nearly as dramatic (and includes other factors of course).

bigegypt0417 2017-09-29 16:55:26 UTC #320

Any pick in the top 5 this year should net you a player a bit more complete than moniak.

That isn't a knock on Moniak it's just that I think he's a long term project...

LoneStarPhan 2017-09-29 23:15:14 UTC #321

Should be interesting couple days. We know by Sunday night.

zambonir 2017-09-29 23:24:07 UTC #322

Does firing the manager help or hurt? They may want to rally around him but they may also be distracted.

Of course now that Pete works in the front office he should understand how important the pick is