Maybe I'm just a pessimist (or an optimist?), but I think the #1 pick is "out of reach." Six of our remaining games are against bad teams (Mets, Braves) - and the Nats are more-or-less coasting having clinched. The Phillies, since the addition of Williams, Hoskins, Alfaro, and Crawford, and with a healthy Altherr, simply aren't a bad team any more. They're going to score some runs. If they play the kids, and get any kind of starting pitching, they're going to win some of these nine games - four or five of them, if they continue at their recent level; possibly six, given the opposition.
Rotation @ Atlants: Lively, Alvarez, Pivetta.
vs. Washington: Nola, Thompson, Leiter.
vs. New York (after an off-day): Lively, Alvarez, Pivetta.
The Phils could choose to give the October 1, Fan Appreciation Day start to Aaron Nola instead of Pivetta - or skip Lively and move Alvarez and Pivetta up a game, given the off day. (I'm assuming they'll want to see as much of Alvarez as possible, since they have to make a decision about him.)
Having Nola pitch the last game would be a nice way to close out the season, for the fans. Nola is at 162 innings pitched, in 26 starts; Pivetta is at 154 innings in 29 starts (ML and AAA combined). Lively is at 174.2 innings, in 29 starts (ML and AAA).
