I think Moniak was the safest of the HS picks. We have been drifting toward safety for some years now, following the fiascos of going with the high-ceiling, secondary tools guys like Hewitt and LGJ and the more rounded high tools Golson. Nola was a safe choice. Crawford was a very safe choice for a H.S. kid. Randolph was relatively safe, if basically one-dimensional making him a bit of a stretch, since he features the hit tool, although he had gaping holes on power and defense and speed. This year, he seems to have been told to ramp up the power.
There is the inherent risk with college arms that they damage those arms in the CWS after they are selected. The safest choice is a legit college position player. If you go with the major hit tool plus D, rather than just speed or raw power, I don't think a primo H.S. position player is much riskier than a college arm. We have failed on a ton of college arms in past drafts, many of whom were never fully healthy from the day they signed with us.
