This I agree with. We all have a little of it in us.
But Bohm is a top 50 prospect and will almost certainly be top 50 n most of the lists.
Bohm is actually showing he can potentially be an above average starter.
Well yes. All prospects even top 100 prospects sometimes don't work out. And that set of 4 prospects probably includes 2 that are top 100 and 2 that are below that (Moniak and Haseley).
I have NEVER said Bohm could not be an above average regular. His projection is to be that on offense. Defense is still a question.
The point I was making is that our top 4 offensive prospects are nothing special compared to other teams. Should we count on them being special and rest on our laurels? Moniak is not hitting better than Nick Williams did at the same age. Should we count on him to be better?
This is not Phillies pessimism. It is reality in terms of how many prospects should become good players. Our top 4 all have defensive questions too, so it is not just offense to evaluate them. Expecting to get 2 good regulars out of the 4 is kind of par for the course.
julio...so true and one needn't look any further than the Phillies organization. In the early 70's the Phils had 3 great minor league hitting prospects...Mike Schmidt, Greg Luzinski and Mike Anderson. Scouts and talent evaluators were almost unanimous in their opinion that Anderson was the best player, he was literally a 5 tool player...until he got beaned in the head in a game in the minors. It was scary and though Anderson recovered and was a semi-regular with the Phils for a couple of years [73-74] he was never the same player again.
Schmidt and Luzinski had careers that were thoroughly documented but I often wondered what Anderson might have been thinking as he watched the success of the duo during the lat 70's run that Anderson fully expected to be a part of.
I still think they are going to make the big move. It just won't be for a rental player. You can much more easily justify trading six years of control over a still-uncertain prospect if it's for three years of someone.
The owner (and most fans) want a playoff team. And let's face it, while this regime has been patient almost to a fault, general managers don't get fired for trading prospects (or if they do it takes years). If the Phillies don't make the playoffs Kapler is probably out and once Kapler is out the clock is ticking on Klentak. All four of these guys (Middleton, MacPhail, Klentak, Kapler) need this wild card, and also, who's to say they don't get back in the division race if they upgrade? (I won't bring up 2007. Oops).
Doesn't mean they have to be reckless and they can also be creative but at least one piece (a starting arm or 3B or CF) has to be substantial (though the position player can be part-time).
Moniak is progressing much faster than Williams, who tore up A ball in a hitter's league but never showed any progress in developing plate discipline. Moniak has made huge strides from a free swinger to a disciplined hitter this year.
Progress is always more important than snapshot performance for prospects.
Does Listi's slow start at Reading outweigh his torrid pace in AAA ball? Now we'll have to see if he maintains it, but if he does, you can pretty much throw out his first couple months - adjusting to higher levels is the key metric for prospects, a 1.000 OPS in A ball isn't worth nearly as much as an .850 OPS in AAA.
The one joker in the deck is that AAA uses the ML baseball, while lower levels use an easier to grip ball, so the transition for pitchers from AA to AAA has become more difficult, at least initially. But has overall production by hitters in AAA ball increased this year, or is this just a transitory effect on pitchers when they're promoted?
You be the judge:
International League OPS
| Year | IL | PCL |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | .719 | .774 |
| 2018 | .709 | .763 |
| 2019 | .792 | .831 |
... but I think that's pretty clear.
Confounded by different players year-to-year, but for league-wide averages, those are huge changes. I would say can't get much clearer than that.
Ouch, that's about a 10-11% jump for the IL (PCL is so weird that I'm wary of any numbers out of that league).
Which suggests that guys like Walding should be considering new careers.
Well, this conclusion didn't require an advanced degree!
I somehow doubt that Mitch Walding will hang onto a 40-man roster spot through the first week in December 2019. I mean, he's a 26-year-old corner infielder, who's managing an OPS of .726 (which is .065 below the IL average this year), at an age when he really should be peaking. His 2018 numbers in AA and AAA were substantially better; it's a bit puzzling what's going on, but it's not good.
Probably because we have had some many injuries there was really no reason to throw him off lately. If he keeps playing like this he'll be outrighted eventually and we may need spots for the trade deadline so that could be soon.
ESPN has the Phillies as one of a half dozen teams watching Mychal Givens of the Orioles.
We have made several trades with them lately, so this is probably one to watch. 2 more years of control after this year. Eshelman BTW had a good first start with them but starts 2 and 3 got progressively worse. 6.91 ERA and 5 HR in 14 IP. Last start was against Boston so not an easy one.
I wouldn't trade Gowdy only b/c it would be selling low, he doesn't have that much value right now, but if he bounces back from the TJ next year he could be prime trade bait or even fast tracked to Philly.
I mean, I get it, he's young and there's no risk of losing Salas or Gosselin (though there's probably no risk of losing Walding either, didn't happen the first time). But at the trade deadline it's also possible they will move a few guys off the 40, or could DFA Rodriguez or Miller if upgrades are acquired.
Cozens is also taking up a spot.
Yeah. Cozens can always be "called up" and then moved to the 60-day DL, to clear a roster spot. He would accrue service time, and have to be paid at the ML minimum rate, but not moving him to the 60-day to avoid those "huge" costs would be rather petty, and foolish if the alternative were to lose a player who actually has value.
True, but it's also possible they acquire enough salary to go into the tax, in which case they might not even want to add a prorated major league minimum guy. But I say that figuring Cozens doesn't survive the off-season either so it's just as easy to release him.
Let's see if Williams is still here on August 1 for starters, obviously if Cozens is the last major league-ready (relatively speaking) LH power bench bat in the system he's not worthless, but the Phillies certainly seemed to have written him off for the season (even as Cozens said he planned to play again this year).
i would sit tight. no trades, unless for a very good controllable pitcher. They won't be doing anything this year (standings wise, that ship has sailed) and they are going to have to go with the core players they have now. AF, you are correct, certainly not Gowdy. They didn't\t give him $3 mil. for a reason. The TJ was a set back and next year will be the year to see if he has recovered. No medina either. He has been growing very nice (last start not withstanding). There was some banter that he was going to come up so maybe that was in his head. i think has the "stuff" that will make him a pretty good ML pitcher, from what i saw in a start this year. Jo Jo is starting to come on also. he has a good start last night. i think you leave the farm pretty much intact, unless you are blown away with an offer. i don't want to see Klentak fleeced just because he thinks he needs to make a trade. they need to look for next year. the way the braves are set up for the future and Nationals too, we might not see another title for a while, if any. let them grow and put the trust in the scouts.
gm
