July 2019 Phils Trade Deadline Speculation/Rumors

[Lawman]

I dunno. I'd love to see the Phillies be sellers as well. I think Neris could bring back something decent - maybe a Bobby Dalbec from the Red Sox system type player?

[bigegypt0417]

CD, Philly had NEVER been a preferred destination, if you're coming to the East Coast, it has always been NYC or Boston. That's reality, Philly sports teams have to learn to deal with it, the Sixers did (bye bye Mr Butler, hello Mr Richardson and Mr Horford).

Right...but the sixers were able to sign and keep two on the best players in the league without them even testing free agency.

You really need to think out your rationale before you type it.

We didn't get lucky with Bryce Harper. Through his actions and his contract he committed to Philadelphia for the rest of his career.

[Austinfan]

We got lucky with Harper because it was clear he wanted LA, probably b/c it was close to Vegas. If they had made him a priority he'd have given them a discount.

Sixers were able to resign their own, which is why player development is so important, once a player has been a Philly for 4-5 years, set down roots in the area, they're more likely to stay, and you get to negotiate that extension before they hit free agency (and in the NBA and NHL, give them an extra season on that extension).

This is why the Phillies should spend like a big market team but think like a small market team, that is, focus on growing your own, then resigning them (the second part kills the small market teams). They have a chance to build that kind of team, Hoskins, Kingery, Bohm, Stott, Moniak, Haseley with Harper as the big money anchor. Maybe resign Realmuto. Nola as the stopper, and a bunch of young RPs. Use free agency to bring in "patches" for the starting rotation while you develop your own.

[bigegypt0417]

We got lucky with Harper because it was clear he wanted LA, probably b/c it was close to Vegas. If they had made him a priority he'd have given them a discount.

You don't know that...you have no real information on that topic. He signed and set up his roots here in Philly contrary to what most people thought would happen.

Ben Simmons and Embiid could have pushed their way ut of this city as well but have decided this is where they want to be. Butler didn't leave philly for any reason other than he was #3 on that roster and he wanted to prove he could be the man.

[julio]

We got lucky with Harper because it was clear he wanted LA, probably b/c it was close to Vegas. If they had made him a priority he'd have given them a discount.

You've failed to understand what was driving Harper's decision - or else just ignored it because you're trying to use Harper to build a case.

Harper made it crystal clear that his priority was long-term stability. He signed for less AAV than he could have obtained elsewhere... but he got what he wanted, which was stability. As in, he's signed for a very long time, and he has a full no-trade clause. He'll likely finish his career here. He's starting a family here. But since you appear to be fixated on the money - Harper gave the Phillies a "discount," in terms of AAV.

Would Harper rather live and work in Philadelphia than any place else in the world? Probably not. Given his values and priorities, he'd probably rather be living and working in Las Vegas, where his family (and his wife's family) are. But of course that wasn't an option. He did his homework, talked to players, and concluded that Philadelphia isn't such a bad place.

So I don't agree that the Phillies "got lucky" with Harper - unless you're subscribing to Branch Rickey's definition of luck! E.g., "Luck is the residue of design." The Phillies landed Harper because they (in the person of John Middleton) made the effort to find out what he really wanted, and they found a way to give him what he really wanted. That ain't "luck." That's good old-fashioned work. There's no evidence that any other organization did that. Those clubs were probably operating under the assumption that money would trump everything else. If so, they were wrong about that.

[California_Dreamin]

Since AF's original comment about players preferring NY or Boston to Philly if they go east, allow me to amplify my original statement. I did not mean to suggest players don't choose the Phillies because of the city, never in a thousand years would I suggest that. As a West Coaster, I love coming to Philadelphia, and would even if I hated the Phillies.

I love the city, the ambiance, the history and I think its a great place to come, much nicer than New York. And the Phillies ballpark and phans make it a top destination for players.

My entire premise of players [especially pitchers] not wanting to come to Philadelphia is my feeling [and I freely admit this] that players don't like or respect Kapler. I think they view him as a snake oil salesman and you can only sell snake oil for a limited time before the word gets out that its all nonsense.

Could I be wrong about this? Sure, and I hope I am. I WANT Kapler to succeed because his success would mean the Phillies are winning. But I remain convinced that someday relatively soon [within the next year or so] a player or players will reveal what they really feel about Kapler and it will be very negative.

I have never quite forgotten that comment [ it was largely attributed to Arrieta but never completely verified that it was him] after the Phils started 1-4 last year. A player said that "Kapler simply needed to get out of the way and let the team play" and that things would be fine. I think they still think this way.

[Austinfan]

Given the shelf life of managers, you'd have to be pretty foolish to sign a long-term deal based on today's manager.

Philly has never been a destination city for pro athletes, I mean it's ahead of Cleveland and Pittsburgh, but it's not one of the spots players target, LA, NYC, even Chicago if they want to live in the Midwest, Florida, Arizona. I've seen Philly teams lose out on free agents for decades.

The money is so good that players will take discounts to play where they want to live, Duchene took $8M a year from Nashville b/c he was building a house there, he could have gotten $9-10M a year on the open market.

The way you overcome that is to get the players in town for a few years, they buy a house, the kids go to school, the wife builds a network, suddenly leaving isn't as attractive. This is why growing your own is so important for Philly teams, either through the farm system or trading for them with a few years of control. Get them comfortable in Philly and you just have to match the money and inertia will often do the rest.

[BostonRoss]

Maybe some people like some cities and others like different ones. People are different, ya know.

[andyb]

In general, money and winning are the two biggest factors. It helps NY and LA teams that they all usually have money and because of that money they win more than they lose. Philly not being an "in demand" city is just not much of an excuse. Even if certain players did not want to play there for whatever reason, there would always be some good player that wants the money and a chance to win. Good organizations make themselves a destination place, like San Antonio in basketball.

[bigegypt0417]

The point is most of the people telling us that philly isn't a preferred destination are the sames one that used that excuse for why Machado/Harper wouldn't sign here. Not only did Harper sign but he committed to this city for what could be the rest of his career.

I listened to yankee fans celebrate machado and corbin signing there and still believing the same press philly fans do...it's become mythology.

[nycphils]

I wonder what it would take to deal with the Reds for any or all of Wood, Roark and Puig? There are two days before the deadline, the Reds aren’t getting to the playoffs and all three are FA after the season - unlike prior years, this is the only chance that the Reds have to dump the roughly $10m remaining on their collective contracts.

[phillychuck]

I don't think Klentak wants to deal for rentals. So unless they come really cheap, the Reds' players are not in our sightline.

[VoteForKalas]

Philly has never been a destination city for pro athletes....

You keep pushing this myth, but it is just flat out wrong and been disproven hundreds of times.

The Flyers have been a destination franchise, one of the most favored organizations for decades. Post the salary cap, that has changed to some degree since their money advantage has been blunted, but they are still able to attract good talent here.

The 76ers during the golden era of Dr J, Cheeks, Toney, Moses, Barkley et al. were a total destination and even during the Iverson period players wanted to be here. Now with Embiid & Simmons, even after the 76ers many mistakes in building the team, Harris signed long term here and players like Horford signed on

We know all about the Phillies most recent golden era and, between 2007 and 2011, players were signing here for less than market value and lining up to join the roster.

Eagles have also been a destination team since 2000 when Reid, Banner and Lurie turned the organization around and built the foundation that still exists today - now since 2017 with talent like Wentz, Cox, Johnson, Ertz et al. players love the Eagles and want to stay here - we just heard from Sproles as the most recent example.

[Austinfan]

Sixers tried last summer to entice FAs, whiff, which is why they traded for Harris and Butler, then traded Butler when he wanted to play in Miami.
Phillies got Harper only after Dodgers took themselves out of the running.
The Sixer "golden age" was three decades ago.
Flyers had to trade for Hayes to do a full court press and still had to overpay, haven't added a big FA other than JVR, who's from NJ, Pronger was a trade.

The Phillies big FA acquisition was Thome from Cleveland, they traded for Halladay and Lee, grew the core of the 2008 team (Hamels, Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Burrell, Victorino (rule 5), Werth (waivers).

[Patchmk88]

Lee came back here in FA in what many considered a discount. Players want two things usually - money and the chance to win. It doesn’t matter if that comes from Los Angeles or Kansas City. If the Dodgers sucked and were only offering discounted contract to players no one would sign there.

The Dodgers are very good and often offer market based contracts to players so players sign there.

There are only rare occurrences where players make decisions in free agency that don’t have a lot to do with money or winning. Location usually comes in a very distant third place.

[nycphils]

I don't think Klentak wants to deal for rentals. So unless they come really cheap, the Reds' players are not in our sightline.

Yes, that’s fair - although I do suspect it would be cheap,and you get a look at a guy like Wood to get the first shot to resign him in the offseason. They are going to need at least 2 new starters next year so that has some value.

[LoneStarPhan]

48 hours to go for any trades to be made.

I expect the Phillies will do something but I thing the probability is high that it is not a major impact deal.

[zambonir]

Geez, I saw so many new posts today and hoped there might actually be some trade deadline speculation/rumors (or news).

Re: the Reds I'm still wondering about Dietrich.

I also kind of think there will in fact be an impact deal. This is still the same front office that did the crazy off-season. Not matter what MacPhail and Klentak say I feel like they also feel the pressure to make a splash, and not white-flag the division. And that's w/o even considering what Middleton wants. (Let's not forget, Middleton is as much to blame as anyone for things like the Howard extension and AJ Burnett deal.)

[bigegypt0417]

Phillies got Harper only after Dodgers took themselves out of the running.

This is a guess.

You can keep the mythology but the two biggest free agents to hit the market in years ended up in San Diego and Philadelphia.

You have built a narrative based on a bygone era when the endorsement money and opportunities only existed in two or three cities.

That has changed.

[Austinfan]

My bet is Middleton is a bit chastened by this season, and understands now that you just can't manufacture a winning team with trades and money. So I'd be surprised if the Phillies move any major prospects, it's obvious that this team is still 2-3 years away from playing with the big boys. As I said before the season (if I can remember) this team is more like the Phillies of 2004 or so, some pieces in place, competitive, but still needing some major improvements.

I had no problem adding Harper due to the structure of his deal, but I never thought he was going to put them over the top. They had some bad luck this season, but it also exposed the lack of organizational depth.