July 2019 Phils Trade Deadline Speculation/Rumors

[EDmuch]

Bowden article suggest we should try to obtain BOTH Matt Boyd and Shane Green from Detroit to shore up our rotation and our bullpen at the same time ......... I don't study our farm teams as intently as some of you do. So I will ask:Is it possible that we could meet Detroit's demands for both of those pitchers while still preserving a semblance of a decent farm system?

[phillychuck]

No, not really. The farm is OK, but thin in the kind of prospects that appeal to other teams in trade.

[allentown]

And those few we have are vital to our future. It simply isn't possible to make the payroll work under lux tax without having at least a handful of young players who are contributing. Guys like Bohm, Stott, Haseley, Grullon, Medina, Moniak already penciled onto 25-man in next few years. Unfortunately, many won't be position starters/rotation guys; cheap bench guys and relievers still a plus.

[zambonir]

Boyd is 28 years old and signed through 2023 so I'd have no problem giving up assets for him regardless of current playoff hope, but it would be hard to out-bid a deeper team with more realistic World Series aspirations.

To me the trade deadline starting pitcher scenario required more success from the pitching we already have, not just because of the standings but because of the trade value. You can't do a Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt type deal if you don't actually have a Carrasco in AAA or a Happ in the big leagues. The latter situation is what I'd hoped for - that our 5th starter would be just competent enough - and young and cheap - to get things started with a rebuilding team looking to shed a veteran salary.

[andyb]

I would not put Grullon, Haseley, and Moniak on any sort of hard to trade list. Scouts are not sold on Grullon and the criticisms have been more defensive of late. And with Haseley and Moniak, they mainly play the same position and since neither is seen as likely to be an above average regular, one has to think that trading one of them is easy.

I could also see them trading either Medina or Howard (more likely Medina) as a way to include a high-ceiling but risky player in a high end deal. Most teams will want Morales too as much as those other two guys even though he is pretty far away and even riskier.

I think they need to have a shot at the division though to justify trading top prospects and I just don't see that now. Wild card is more of a "tweak but not reinvent" strategy of smaller band-aid deals largely picking up salary. Like a Cashner deal would have been.

[EDmuch]

Bowden was pretty much suggesting that the Phils go all in on Boyd and Green because they are both controllable (especially Boyd) beyong this year.

[bigegypt0417]

I would imagine at this Point Grullon has performed at a level where he can be considered a legitimate ML prospect. Offensively he's ready to contribute to a team and I would imagine he would hold value for a team looking for a catcher.

At this point we have a season and a half of offensive production that doesn't grow on trees.

Trading Moniak and Haseley is selling low especially with Moniak starting to look like an actual prospect.

[phillychuck]

Players who have trade value at AA or above that we would consider trading for value:

Hernandez
Franco
Eflin/Velasquez/Pivetta (one of these)
Williams
Grullon
Listi?
Haseley/Moniak (one of these)
Irvin/De Los Santos (one of these)
Hall
Parkinson/Medina/Llovera (one of these)

I just don't know if there is enough talent in this list to acquire a strong pitcher or two and to outbid other interested teams.

[zambonir]

Yeah a rebuilding team won't want the major league positions players and Williams and the major league pitchers just aren't that exciting right now, even if they still have potential. Sometimes these trades are cheaper than we expect them to be but I would think Moniak and Medina are the starting point for Boyd and Green, +2 (whether higher or lower in the system).

[EDmuch]

Moniak, Medina, Williams, Hall. Does that get us anywhere near Boyd and Green?

[EDmuch]

I think the big attraction is Boyd being under team control until 2023. Does that make it worth going all out to get him?

[fish]

Moniak, Medina, Williams, Hall. Does that get us anywhere near Boyd and Green?

I think Haseley, Medina and Williams gets you a seat at the table for Boyd. I really like Boyd, but he's got a homer problem too. How much could that problem amplify in Philly?

[Taudawg]

I suspect many of us, myself included, believe the Phillies will avoid the luxury tax. What if that is not true? If they are willing to go into the tax, everything changes. Teams looking to move money often settle for way less in the way of prospects. Zack Greinke?

[andyb]

We could actually add Grienke this year and stay under if it was all we did.

Next year is another story of course.

[bigegypt0417]

I suspect many of us, myself included, believe the Phillies will avoid the luxury tax. What if that is not true? If they are willing to go into the tax, everything changes. Teams looking to move money often settle for way less in the way of prospects. Zack Greinke?

Middleton has promised Boras and Harper that the phillies would be in the top 5 in payroll on a regular basis...I don't think there is an issue about spending.

[zambonir]

Being in the Top 5 and busting the tax are two different things. Only Boston and Washington were in it last year, and I didn't see the Yankees or Dodgers or Cubs attempt to change that (at least not yet).

Greinke is an interesting one. The age is more concerning than the money, if he can actually keep pitching this way the money (assuming some pick-up by AZ and a low trade price) would be worth it.

Of course Arizona is only a game behind us in the standings. And Texas, for all the Mike Minor talk, is ahead of us.

[bigegypt0417]

Phillies currently have 58 million dollars under the luxury tax cap for this year. Greinke's number is 34 million dollars so it's more than enough room.

Phillies are currently at 116 million committed for 2020 so they have to room to add significant players to the roster if they chose.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/payroll/

[andyb]

That is not correct. We are about $16.9 million under according to Cot's:

Google Sheets

Barely enough to fit the rest of Grienke's 2019 contract which is about $15 million now but goes down close to $200K a day.

[bigegypt0417]

It seems there are disparities with jay bruce and his salary...cots has 14 million and the other has it adjusted at 1 million.

Seattle seems it's on the hook for a big chunk.

[andyb]

We are paying $1 million this year and $1.75 million next year for Bruce. That is not what is affecting the AAV though.