July 2019 Phils Trade Deadline Speculation/Rumors

[David_Criss]

Are you saying Bruce is lock for the stating LF job in 2020? I did forget to include him in the battle for the 4th OF spot. Sorry.

[andyb]

No. Just a lock for a 4th OF role and available to start if there is an opening in either LF (Cutch taking longer to get healthy) or CF (Kingery playing 2B or 3B, Cutch playing CF instead of LF).

Bruce's salary is so low ($1.75 M next year) that there is no reason we would not want him on the bench short of trading him to a team that wants him to play every day if we do not need that. We acquired him to be the 4th OF in the first place.

[zambonir]

Walding and Franco are done. Knapp might be. Grulion could also be traded. They will probably sign one "name" bench player. Heck it wouldn't surprise me if Rodriguez gets a guaranteed contract. They might also have to sign a SS (if Gamboa isn't ready for the job he's probably done too). Haseley could easily start the year in the bigs even if he isn't full-time.

So the OF picture isn't that complicated. LF is Cutch and Bruce. RF is Harper. Haseley, Herrera (if he isn't traded or bought out). Quinn and Kingery could all be in the CF mix. If Herrera is done (and why expect him to be a good player, never mind the other stuff?) you don't think Haseley is ready or CF isn't Kingery's primary position they will need someone else. But that person could be arriving in the next three weeks.

If you read Sunday's Athletic notebook, it doesn't sound like the Phillies are in any rush to change Kingery's role, he could easily be the primary CF or 3B next year (or the primary CF for the rest of the season if they acquire another 3B type). And I don't really blame them for that, because the team is probably still be better with Hernandez and Kingery than with Kingery and who-knows (unless it's Anthony Rendon). Would just be for one more year, maybe less if Haseley or Bohm step up mid-season.

[zambonir]

With the present state of pitching in the game, is there any confidence that the pitcher(s) that the Phillies could obtain in trade would perform better enough than what they presently have that would justify giving up Hasely, Moniak level talent? A better solution, especially with the weak performance of the pitchers almost across the board, would be to get a different PC. Having a guy who is strong in analytics is nice but results on the mound matter as well. Letting go of Kranitz might not have been the best decision.

The pitching coach rarely makes a difference. It's always about the talent. Heck, it wasn't that long ago that Kranitz was Bob McLure's assistant, and nobody liked McLure. Kranitz also only got the job because they couldn't find anyone else (and Young only got the job to keep the Braves from hiring him).

The analytics are a red herring. Young was a pitcher. He's not coaching with a spreadsheet (it's really about video, arm angles, mechanics, match-ups). Not sure any of the pitching coaches have been any better or worse than the others, and the results Young is getting from the starters are exactly the same as Kranitz (i.e. all four starters not named Nola are erratic, while Nola's regression was expected). A new pitching coach isn't going to make Nick Pivetta better than Madison Bumgarner, or make Edgar Garcia ready for the majors now.

[allentown]

I realize we would be the second wildcard if the season ended today, but we also have just barely fallen into 3rd place in the NL East. Despite doing better than last season, this year seems snakebit, with all of the pitching injuries and regression and little stepping forward by the younger guys. We've already put a lot of chips on the table at the expense of the farm in the Segura and Realmuto deals. A bargain deal, as we got for Jay Bruce, is great, but I wouldn't want to trade top minor league talents who could be helping out in Philly in the next 13 months. It just seems too much like the Sixers squeaking into and quickly exiting the playoffs, before they needed to switch to The Process: an unsustainable blip up, with no chance to progress in playoffs. The Phillies have a relatively weak farm and cannot squander the talent needed to sustain a run of years of being playoff contenders with a trade of the future for the present. A team with a strong farm and surplus strength on the farm, which has a realistic chance to advance through playoffs by trading, can afford to and should do that, but the present Phillies are not that team.

So... don't trade Haseley, Moniak, Bohm, Grullon, SS or pitcher Garcia, Medina

[zambonir]

I think there is no way they don't push hard for the playoffs even though an NLDS loss seems like the ceiling. I seriously doubt they will trade more than one Top 10 guy, if that. But the key is controllability. They are not going to give up anything big for two months and a shot at a play-in game. But if it's someone they'll have for two months and two years...

[flyers19rw]

I couldn't disagree with you more about the impact of a PC. Kravitz had a good share of the pitchers heading in the positive direction after McClure's departure. The regression under Young has been alarming. Last season the staff gave up 171 HRs in the entire season; this year they're at 153 through 90 games. The K/9 rate has fallen to 8.4 from 9.1; the WHIP is up to 1.40 from 1.29; and the ERA has risen to 4.64 from 4.14. These are not good numbers.

[zambonir]

That's certainly not how I remember last season, even if some of the numbers back you up (and agreed the HR thing is bad but we don't know that it is due to a change in coaching). The pitching was a disaster in August and September. Everything we saw from Pivetta in April and Arrieta and Eflin now we also saw in the second half of last season. And Vinny is Vinny.

[allentown]

HRs up across baseball. We are the underperforming in our offense producing HRs.

[bkox]

HRs up across baseball. We are the underperforming in our offense producing HRs.

While this is true... MLB as a whole has gone from 1.2HR per 9 to 1.4HR per 9. The Phillies staff have jumped from 1.1 in 2018 to 1.7 in 2019.

[LoneStarPhan]

Bruce is signed for $13 million for 2020 plus $1.5 million of his signing bonus. However, Seattle is paying Phillies $18,567,204 in January 2020 toward that contract, so Phillies will pay around 2.75 million to Bruce over 2019 and 2020. So yes, he certainly will be back for a bench role if not forced into a starting role again.

Segura is signed for 2020, 2021, 2022, and an option for 2023. I expect he will be the starting shortstop in 2020.

Hernandez also can be brought back for 2020 although I would not be surprised to see him traded in the off season.

The big positions that the GM has to address for 2020 are third base, centerfield, and possibly leftfield. They will have to evaluate the comeback prospects of McCutchen. If they think he will be back to form, then he will be the left fielder. Bruce will again give them a bench bat and back up for left field.

I think they will have a new centerfielder and a new third baseman for 2020. Herrera could be back but his play in the latter part of 2018 and early 2019 was not good enough. He is not good enough unless he can play at the level he did in his first several season as a Phillie. Franco has again shown flashes of good play but ultimately, the numbers just are not good enough. I think third base is the most important position that needs to be filled for 2020.

I don't think they will be able to find the needed additions to the lineup for 2020 in trades this month.

Pitching is of course needed as well as help at various positions. I am sure they will bring in someone to the rotation this month but it may not be a solution for 2020. I expect they add several pitchers for 2020.

[zambonir]

I would bet money they trade for a pitcher who is signed for 2020 and possibly 2021 too. Starter, reliever or both. A position player, harder to say but also harder to know who might be available.

The Diamondbacks have players in both categories (though Peralta is yet another guy who can't really play CF). The Blue Jays are supposedly shopping both Stroman (a big risk right now) and Giles (a big risk just because he's a reliever and he's Ken Giles). Bauer may yet be available. You know the Phillies would still love Merrifield but he may not be on the block.

I think Bohm is our next 3B, anyone else before that is either a journeyman patch or named Kingery. Unless they trade Bohm and sign Rendon of course.

[zambonir]

Was that you writing to Scott Lauber Flyers?

Question: It seems as though the Phillies’ young starters have regressed this year rather than improve. The young Atlanta pitchers are doing well. Could it be that the Phillies erred in releasing Rick Kranitz as pitching coach? Atlanta grabbed him almost immediately after his release in Philadelphia. I enjoy your work with the Inquirer. -- Jim A., via email

Answer: Thanks, Jim, for your kind words and the question. It’s certainly fair to wonder if the Phillies picked the wrong pitching coach by letting Kranitz go and promoting Chris Young. A quick comparison of the staffs:

The Braves rank 11th in the majors in ERA (4.20); the Phillies rank 19th (4.64).
The Braves rank 17th in FIP (4.45); the Phillies rank 28th (5.06).
The Braves rank 24th in walks per nine innings (3.63); the Phillies rank 14th (3.34).
The Braves are tied for 9th in homers per nine innings (1.23); the Phillies are 29th (1.72).
The teams are tied for 16th in starters’ ERA (4.56).
OK, so the Braves have their pitching issues, too. You’re correct in saying that the Phillies’ young pitchers -- Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, in particular -- haven’t gotten better under Young, but then the Braves would say the same for Mike Foltynewicz’s regression under Kranitz. It really comes down to this: The Phillies preferred Young’s analytical and scouting eye to Kranitz’s approach as a traditional pitching coach.

And regardless of what you think of that decision, it might also wind up coming down to this: Maybe the Braves’ young pitchers are simply better than their Phillies counterparts.

Major League Baseball erred by not showcasing Bryce Harper in the All-Star Game...

[gmwannabe]

The farm is pretty depleted after the off season trades. i would not drop it any further. they have about 2-3 weeks to see how this team will go. i don"t want to see Klentak get fleeced just for the sake of doing something. it might not be needed.
gm

[nycphils]

I would see what I could get for the following:

Nicasio
Hunter
Neshek
Williams
Cesar

Of course I’d deal Odubel or Mikel, but doubt they bring much if anything back. Best thing that could probably happen to this team at this point is to lose 5 or 6 of the next 7 to the Dodgers and Braves and not deplete the farm any more.

With Bohm looking like a contributor (hopefully at 3rd) in the near term and the OF set for next year with McCutcheon, Bruce and Harper at the corners and options like Haseley, Kingery, Quinn, all the resources can be focused on the rotation in the offseason. I think we need to find 2 new starters, one at the high end such as Gerritt Cole.

[philsphan67]

I saw the article on the MLB erring by not inviting Bryce Harper, not sure if you meant to throw in the "showcasing" link. That is basically Scott Boras being a media machine. I am concerned about Harper in years 8 - 13, but he has paid for himself for at least two years from the business side, plays better defense than I thought, been incredibly positive and likeable. But Bryce is not an all-star, Scott Boras pushes very well his clients agendas. I hope to see Bryce in future all-star games because his play merits the selection.

[nycphils]

Really stinks that Hunter and Neshek are both on the shelf...they probably would have brought back decent prospects, especially if the Phillies paid a portion of their remaining salary. Now there is little or nothing to sell that will be in any kind of demand.

[andyb]

What I expect fairly soon is a deal or two that involve mainly picking up salary (like the Cashner deal). Cot's has us $16.9 million under the threshold now which means we can pick up about $40 million in pro-rated yearly salary.

Getting a little more depth, especially in the bullpen will be important as we go through the final 2.5 months of the season.

[allentown]

That's a fine approach. Spending $ up to lux cap to improve the team is good. Trading significant minor league talent is not.

[California_Dreamin]

I agree with andyb's comments in the Prospect thread about "winning now." Of course this Phillie team was built to win now in 2019 and no one in the Phillie organization is going to call this season a success if the team doesn't make the playoffs. And, truth be told, they sure resemble many teams of the baseball past that under performed for much of the season, added a couple of players later in the season and carried that momentum into the playoffs.

Do I think this is likely? No, because I have absolutely no faith in the manager. But is it possible? Of course. For instance, what if they somehow got Greinke for a B prospect and the ability to take on his contract? Is this possible? Absolutely.

And what if the Phils brought in a reliever who could close well, moving Neris to the 8th inning instead? Possible? Yes.

And what if the Phils realized that they had a chance to get to the playoffs and recalled Bohm for the stretch run and he hit like we all are hoping he might hit. Harper, Hoskins, Bohm and Realmuto would be an impressive middle of the order.

The key is to get there. Once you do that, anything is possible. I do NOT move Bohm, Howard, Medina, Haseley or Moniak. Keep them and let them grow with the organization.

But Greinke won't cost any of those players. As hard as it is to keep the faith, the reality is that the team still is in the playoff hunt and should focus on improving the club without sacrificing the future. And then hope Harper can carry them through a successful playoff run. The Giants did it in 2012 and 2014. While unlikely, it is hardly impossible.