Here we go:
Well, this conclusion didn't require an advanced degree!
I somehow doubt that Mitch Walding will hang onto a 40-man roster spot through the first week in December 2019. I mean, he's a 26-year-old corner infielder, who's managing an OPS of .726 (which is .065 below the IL average this year), at an age when he really should be peaking. His 2018 numbers in AA and AAA were substantially better; it's a bit puzzling what's going on, but it's not good.
Probably because we have had some many injuries there was really no reason to throw him off lately. If he keeps playing like this he'll be outrighted eventually and we may need spots for the trade deadline so that could be soon.
ESPN has the Phillies as one of a half dozen teams watching Mychal Givens of the Orioles.
We have made several trades with them lately, so this is probably one to watch. 2 more years of control after this year. Eshelman BTW had a good first start with them but starts 2 and 3 got progressively worse. 6.91 ERA and 5 HR in 14 IP. Last start was against Boston so not an easy one.
I wouldn't trade Gowdy only b/c it would be selling low, he doesn't have that much value right now, but if he bounces back from the TJ next year he could be prime trade bait or even fast tracked to Philly.
I mean, I get it, he's young and there's no risk of losing Salas or Gosselin (though there's probably no risk of losing Walding either, didn't happen the first time). But at the trade deadline it's also possible they will move a few guys off the 40, or could DFA Rodriguez or Miller if upgrades are acquired.
Cozens is also taking up a spot.
Yeah. Cozens can always be "called up" and then moved to the 60-day DL, to clear a roster spot. He would accrue service time, and have to be paid at the ML minimum rate, but not moving him to the 60-day to avoid those "huge" costs would be rather petty, and foolish if the alternative were to lose a player who actually has value.
True, but it's also possible they acquire enough salary to go into the tax, in which case they might not even want to add a prorated major league minimum guy. But I say that figuring Cozens doesn't survive the off-season either so it's just as easy to release him.
Let's see if Williams is still here on August 1 for starters, obviously if Cozens is the last major league-ready (relatively speaking) LH power bench bat in the system he's not worthless, but the Phillies certainly seemed to have written him off for the season (even as Cozens said he planned to play again this year).
i would sit tight. no trades, unless for a very good controllable pitcher. They won't be doing anything this year (standings wise, that ship has sailed) and they are going to have to go with the core players they have now. AF, you are correct, certainly not Gowdy. They didn't\t give him $3 mil. for a reason. The TJ was a set back and next year will be the year to see if he has recovered. No medina either. He has been growing very nice (last start not withstanding). There was some banter that he was going to come up so maybe that was in his head. i think has the "stuff" that will make him a pretty good ML pitcher, from what i saw in a start this year. Jo Jo is starting to come on also. he has a good start last night. i think you leave the farm pretty much intact, unless you are blown away with an offer. i don't want to see Klentak fleeced just because he thinks he needs to make a trade. they need to look for next year. the way the braves are set up for the future and Nationals too, we might not see another title for a while, if any. let them grow and put the trust in the scouts.
gm
This offense is (in my estimation) so underperforming right now that I wouldn't waste any assets improving the pitching. Just my take.
I'm not so disappointed with the offense but they simply need too much pitching to make it worth it. Unless their target is young and controllable and in that case we're going to give up a major piece to make that happen...like Bohm.
My preferred path is to scrape the bottom of the barrel this year and go all in on Gerrit Cole in the offseason.
With McCutchen, Odubel and now Bruce all out, and Franco not having improved much, I think it is personnel more than “underperforming.”
The most significant underperformance I suspect is Realmuto (career OPS+ 108, 93 in ‘19). I hope that the team does not prematurely extend him because they gave up Sixto for him - maybe he will be worth it, but a big extension now could be a real Howard-esque albatross down the line. Lots of catchers in the pipeline, would not risk it if I was the Phillies.
There are other C in the pipeline, but none anywhere near as good as Realmuto. He is throwing out 45% of runners this year, easily leading the league, His defense is elite and has been most of his career. (although this rate of getting runners is oddly high for him, but new team, new pitchers)
The entire team is underperforming on offense, at some point this is going to fall on the coaching. Every player is having a bad year except Kingery, and he is fading pretty fast to what I suspect is more normal numbers.
I mean in the aggregate Quinn, Nick Williams and Andrew Knapp have about 240 PAs of awful too. We scored 9 runs in Pittsburgh and were fortunate to get out of there with 2 wins.
Realmuto is off the expectations that were reasonable assuming he moved to CBP from Florida's huge park. But still they should look at extending him. He is an All-Star catcher. Increasingly I think the problem relates to coaching and coaching philosophy.
My "buyer beware" is Matt Boyd. The Tigers are going to want a huge haul for him. I am suspicious of his new found strikeout ability through the Spring. As the weather gets warmer hitters seem to be getting a bead on him and his pitches. I hope we are not the ones who give a treasure chest of good prospects to the Tigers only to realize that Boyd is, at BEST, perhaps a Number 3 starter.
At the same time I do not believe we can "sit tight" and wait for a bunch of prospects to develop. \With the signing of Harper, and the trades for Segura and Realmuto we have crossed the Rubicon of "rebuilding and development". We have to start being competitive this year. Certainly I hope the Bohm is here next year to play third base.
I think we were competitive this year and injuries did us in. We are still technically competitive. Klentak should keep working the sort of cheap upgrades he's done so far. I would not trade a top prospect or a very good proximate prospect. We will need them next year. Judicious addition of FA this off-season. We will have ample money to spend. Segura and Realmuto will still be here next year; Harper will be here for quite a few more years. I think Bohm joins the team sometime next season. Probably Howard as well. Haseley is already up and helping the team.
I don't think there is any chance of Realmuto being an albatross. With the way the FA market has been he's not likely to get a blockbuster deal. Five years at most (one of which is 2020). He'll be the best option for catcher for all of that time even if it becomes more a platoon situation towards the end. What he might not be is a middle-of-the-order hitter, but you never know. Chooch peaked offensively at 33 but was still more than solid as a catcher at 34 and 35. Realmuto will be 29 next season.
Someone mentioned this before but I wonder if the Phillies fully considered the fact that their two biggest newcomers might lag a little in Year One as they adjusted to a new team (for the first time in their careers, unlike Arrieta, Cutch and Segura), new city, and impending first-time fatherhood all at once (actually I don't know if JT already had kids, but Harper obviously does not).
The biggest challenge about going for the wild card is not the marginal chance it actually gives you (too easy to lose the one game, unlikely to beat LA) but assessing your chances in a four-team race (five if Arizona, which has a better run differential than the Cubs and Braves, stay in). I think this front office wants and needs to make a push, but they can also see the numbers (like our own run differential which gives us an XW-L of 48-52.
I think you can still dream on the division a little bit with so many games left against the Braves; problem is the Nats are now in the way too. It requires more luck and perfection than is likely. Somehow pick up a game over the next two days (Braves playing the Royals) and then sweep them at home and you're only 3 1/2 out. More likely best-case, though, is they'll still be 6.5 out if they merely win the Braves series, and they could even lose ground in Detroit given the road record (and the Braves being at home for their series).
It'll be interesting to see if they can make a move by Friday.