Good point Andy, The phils should have an in there, unless They are unhappy with the way Marchan has been treated. Stubbsie may not have only dragged the phils catching group down, but also had hurt the phils signing better prospects.
That's not a bad idea- they might have more success letting Kilambi pick through some other teams DSL/A-Ball rosters then what's left for them to sign with the money remaining. The scenario of signing some other teams top signing class prospect in lieu of Sasaki is a double edged sword, because if the favored Dodgers sign him then the top guy to poach from their class is #50 Dominican outfielder Teilon Serrano (who looks like he has a nice left handed swing, but looks like he's on the same talent level of Izaguirre). If the Dodgers don't sign Sasaki, then they have the same money to poach a better player from someone else's class (and all things equal, the Phils likely lose a competition against the Dodger to sign someone for the same money)
He was definitely being sarcastic (both because Phillies aren't in the hunt and because whatever team gets him will probably still max out the int'l money).
How much international signing money is tradable in a single deal? I found information about from previous CBAs, but not the latest one. Wondering how much the Phillies could trade to a team in the running for Susaki. Since we aren't one of the 7 teams Roki has identified, it feels like the money would make for good leverage.
Being offered $9 million instead of $7 million is not going to be the thing that determines Sasaki's choice. There's no leverage that would actually lead to a truly interesting trade return. Phillies have given away international money more years than not by signing free agents, and have already done so again for next season (assuming they stay at this CBT spot). The best use of the money is likely spending it on their own signings.
I am sure they will sign at least a dozen, though likely none for big money. The industry has decided that spending more than a couple of hundred thousand on any young pitcher is unwise so nobody does it. The MLB.com top 50 has only 4 pitchers on it and that includes the 23-year-old Roki Sasaki. The other 3 top out at 39th.
While there might be a market inefficiency on all the top pitchers, the Phillies can probably exploit that and still spend under a million total on pitching. We have sometimes spent a little more on slightly older pitchers in Asia (Pan), but again not really that much.
Not sure if this is behind a paywall or not. Crux of the article is that Sasaki is going to affect existing classes. Teams may walk away from deals with Latin American kids so they can give that allocation to Sasaki. So some high profile guys may NOT sign right on 1/15 if their team is still in on Sasaki. Furthermore teams may be trying to trade for additional allocation to sweeten the offer to Sasaki. Since the Phillies are out on Sasaki I hope they trade their allocation for existing prospects or stand ready to sign up a shunned Latin American signing
All this will play out in 8 days because the end of his posting period is 1/23. It does seem like whatever team signs him will need to trade for allocations and that can't happen till the 15th either though handshake deals could already be done I suppose.
Could be a slower January 15th this time if a half dozen teams are holding things up for Sasaki.
It seems crazy to me that Sasaki's decision would come down to $2 million vs. $8 million (vs. $4 million or whatever). He's gonna get paid from endorsements and from his future contracts. And he's going to be on his new team for what, six years? I suppose most of his "classmates" won't even arrive by then but if I'm Andrew Friedman or Brian Cashman I just sign the guys I need to sign and make my pitch based on what his whole career is going to look like.
Now, if you're one of these players that has a verbal agreement with a team that is considering breaking it, what do you do? Sign with a new team on the 16th or wait and see if your team misses out on Sasaki? I don't really see where the Phillies would get much of any real value for their $250K blocks (even several of them) - perhaps the Tyler Gilbert measuring stick also applies here - but if they could swoop in and steal someone they never had a chance at...
We have done it before with Muzziotti though those circumstances were different (rule breaking rather than walking away from a deal). Assume we will be aggressive since we seemingly have not committed a bunch of our pool yet.
Maybe this will be the impetus towards a draft. Negative is that maybe Sasaki would not come over before he is 25 if he is not allowed to pick his team. Positive is that we are about to expose a whole bunch of illegal handshake deals that teams are backing away from. Not positive for the kids of course, but positive for the sport to put more order into this.
Edit - maybe the process has already started if Sasaki is headed to the Dodgers.
Yeah it seems like it would be more of a wild west for these 8 days, with unofficial deals and non-public $ amounts, whereas the Red Sox thing created a late pool of free agents with known voided contract amounts.
The MLBPA is still so much against the draft.
The MLBTR post you shared offers a lot of the info from the BA story for those of us who don't subscribe. Certainly suggests the Dodgers are getting their ducks in a row but I guess doesn't mean they are the frontrunner or only team doing so.
Dodgers had supposedly promised this kid $900K and Pirates are giving him $1.8 million. That's certainly something Phillies could do. And he's not even Top 50.
Well this does seem an overpay and even a PR-related move for Pittsburgh (as in why aren't we spending more money on the major league roster in free agency?). Pirates are under $80 million still for the major league payroll and all we hear about are how the A's need to spend to get to like $105 million.
I am not a fan of overpays. I have been pretty consistent in disliking many of the big contracts the Phillies give out (for the amount and not necessarily the player). Ortiz is clearly the classic case but I would have been fine bringing him in for somewhere in the $1.$2 million range knowing what we knew back when he was 15 or 16. Bergolla always seemed like an $800K-$1M player to me. Even Caba should have been $2 million instead of $3 million.
That being said, I hope there are a bunch of $500K players out there and we sign 6-10 of them. That would be my ideal class in this situation since we pretty much are out on anyone else in the top 50 and our top guy now (Izaguerra) is below $1 million reportedly. Let's sign 5 more kids in the 50-100 range and be aggressive on pitching since seemingly good arms can be had for modest sums ($100K-$200K) given the analytical risk that discriminates against all young pitching.
BTW here is the substack page for Francys Romero previously mentioned. His top 35 is all that is free (Izaquirre and Marrero did not make that). Assume he has other notes on social media.
I recall previously reading that the buscones (sp?) were most against a draft since they would lose all leverage and threatened trouble if a draft was ever on the table
If the MLBPA agreed to it, the league would just crush the entire system. Not saying it's right (at all!) or that the draft is the best thing for the players necessarily but imagine Rob Manfred and Scott Boras as Exxon or United Fruit in this scenario. There's not much doubt who wins.
If you don't think you're signing a "sure thing" you're probably better off spreading your money around on kids who are less physical mature than their peers at 15-16 instead of getting into bidding wars for early bloomers.
Almost all the players the Phillies gave big money to have flopped over the years.
And most of their LA major leaguers and top prospects haven't been million dollar bonus babies.
That is actually not true. Big money guys have become good players (even going back to Carlos Silva and Carlos Carrasco). The real issue is giving players $2 to $4 million when they should get only $1 million..
All these 16 year old kids have risk. You still need to spend at the top of the market though to get the better tools. We just need to negotiate a better price on the top kids than the Phillies have done historically.. A "never spend big money on anybody" strategy like you seem to advocate probably does not work either. I want more players with medium money. I do not think signing 50 players for low money works.