The Phillies scouts/development seem to have a clue, signed Kemp and Anthony as college FAs and both are now top 30 prospects. Campbell seems similar, you see basic skills and something you can tweak in his swing to generate more power. If he ends up a RH utliity IF/OF with power (Kemp?) it's a win.
Not sure exactly how to evaluate the Campbell deal, but I guess I am disappointed with the return especially if it is a million dollar allocation. For that price we should get someone who fits at least into the top 20 of the system rather than the top 40. MLB does rank him 27th in our system which of course is a bad view of our system compared to the Dodgers if Fangraphs ranked him 46th there. The guy the Reds got seems to have a higher ceiling than Campbell.
This is not to denigrate Campbell who is young for his class and survived in a pitching environment in High A in his first full season. He is a decent 4th OF/Utility prospect though the lack of infield experience last year may mean he is not really that good there. RIght-handed utility guys are really not valuable though, certainly compared to left handed bats that can be the long side of the platoon.
It just feels like we should have gotten a bit more (i.e. higher ceiling) for that much international allocation space. I am sure we just did not have the agreements with any top prospects dating back a couple of years (and it is really not Chung's fault), but the lack of connections with top prospects in an international class is really not an excuse to get a somewhat minimal return in a deal like this.
Well yeah but I just don't think the Phillies were truly going to be able to finish the season under that threshold. How would they have done so in this context? Nobody's taking Nick (who we need anyway) or Walker for international money. If the Phillies really wanted to chip away at that they wouldn't have signed Joe Ross, and/or they could have settled for Painter and a patchwork of 5th starters instead of adding Luzardo's salary.
I really thought you meant it could help them avoid the next threshold, which they will still probably exceed (but which those moves above were all designed to avoid for now compared to pricier FAs, as was Kepler).
Perhaps. On the other hand, Lantigua (the guy the Reds got) is 2.5 years younger, and has spent two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. If his ceiling is higher, he's farther from that ceiling, which suggests that the odds of his just not making it are higher. It's not an obvious call, to me at least.
Fun fact, and question?: Arnaldo Lantigua (the guy the Reds got) is from Puerto Plata, in the Dominican Republic. Rafael Lantigua (infielder the Phils signed to a minor league deal with a NRI)...is also from Puerto Plata. Relatives? Brothers?
Clearly we went for higher floor and lower ceiling. I just tend to err in the opposite direction since we can get AAAA players cheap.
I guess the big story is the value of the allocations is pretty small this year. It is a down year for the free agent class and all the top names are already locked up (which is partially the Phillies fault). This was the best the Phillies could do and I do think it is better than overpaying (like we did for Josh Gessner) one of the few prospects still available.
Just wish we had locked up a better class in the first place I guess.
Can't argue with that...but it's effectively ancient history, given how long ago those lockups occurred.
Has there been indication of multiple players "committed" to LA being signed elsewhere? Or was Serrano (who did bail) the only commit they had worth discussing?
L.A. lost a trio of players who had initially committed to join the team. Dominican infielder Darell Morel (Pirates), Venezuelan outfielder Oscar Patiño (White Sox), and Dominican outfielder Teilon Serrano (Twins) have signed elsewhere. Francys Romero reports that L.A. intends to complete its other verbal agreements — roughly 15 in total. Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that the Dodgers finalized a deal with Venezuelan pitcher Carlos Ramirez tonight.
The Dodgers did have one of the smaller pools going in. I think they are using about $1.7 million of the pool to sign their class beyond Sasaki. So they have a little more than $3 million of that original $5 million plus pool that they are not using now. It looks like they lost one top guy and a couple or three midlevel prospects. They probably did not commit all of their pool initially in anticipation of Sasaki potentially being available.
I think the Phillies view their “word” differently than the Dodgers. The Phillies would never walk away from agreements the way the Dodgers did. So perhaps they avoided the top of the class to keep their powder dry in case they had a shot at Sasaki. At least that’s my theory.
Yes, the old Phillies self-applied 'KICK ME" sign. Cheat us by being a year older than you claimed and then getting banned for a year by commish? No problem, of course we'll still give you the full $2.6 mill we promised. The D.R. is the wild west of baseball. It is clearly the case that teams fear no punishment, either from MLB or the buscones, for promising more bonuses than they can possibly play and paying the only guys they find they truly want several years later. Also no penalty for making these guarantees years before MLB rules allow deals to be made. This one[sided sense of honor has served the Phillies very poorly.
How could they have predicted Sasaki woukd be available this year? Hd could just as easily been on the market last year or next year right? I don't disagree with the concept of the Phillies javeing a sense of right and wrong. I juts don't know if I agree that they set up their 2025 inter national singings assuming Sasaki would be up for grabs
I think it is much more likely they just had a bad year locking up top talent. It might be why they brought Chung in to fix things.
Spend the rest of the $ signing the half dozen pitchers or more pitchers who intrigue them the most. They certainly are better at identifying promising LA pitchers than they are OFs. Half of a major league roster is pitchers and after the season starts there is a greater need for help from pitchers in the minors than there is for DH or position players, yet draft and international the $ are focused very heavily toward position players, Since most teams aren't willing to spend significant $ on LA pitchers, we have a fairly clear shot at just about whomever we want. I saw one $1+ million LA pitcher signing. How many others were there? How many above $400K? LA produces a lot of pitchers. LA produces a lot of MLB pitchers. Admittedly also a lot of MLB OFs, although Rojas is the best we've produced in recent memory, although we've spent a ton of $ trying.
This is true- and the one false narrative they need to be held to was the one where they decided there wasn’t top talent worthy of big bonus and they elected to spread their money around to more several hundred thousand type guys- because they haven’t done that (yet) either (not more than anyone else or even in their own history)
This is a well organized and prepared front office, and this just doesn’t jive with that. I’m telling myself something clearly went wrong years ago that they are paying the price for and have since been corrected, because it seems they are connected to top guys in the next 2 classes.
Generally this has been seen as a weak class, it is possible the multi million talents never emerged during the cycle. I also have had this nagging feeling about it being $1M traded, because that is the QO penalty and probably one they would have had to pay if Nola had walked last year. There are also roster limits in the DSL with the stronger limits stateside. They have clearly spent a lot of money this period and spread it out in more lower bonuses, sometimes the easy answer is they didn’t have a $1M of guys that popped in the last 12 months and waited to see what would happen with Sasaki, and they probably bet wrong and did with the money what they could as that market collapsed. Nothing of the other trades for international money indicate it had huge untapped value.
