In what year do you expect the Phils to contend?

[bkeich]

From a discussion in another thread. What year do you reasonably expect the Phillies to contend. Lets say that means that the expectation before the season is for 92 wins.

• 2017
• 2018
• 2019
• 2020
• 2021 or later
• Cant really build an expectation like this, will depend on too many factors

Show results

[xogfog]

My hope is that they will be able to contend in 2019. Sign Machado, have at least two of the LHV prospects turn into All-Star level players, and a few others become solid contributors. My concern is that we won't have any home grown All-Star pitchers from our system, or enough top prospects to trade for established pitchers to become a WS contender.

[Lucky_Beagle]

2019...contending for a wild card shouldn't be too tough. You basically need to play .500 ball to be contending for most of the season.

[VoteForKalas]

2019 is most likely, but they are going to have to start spending ahead of that time frame and make their decisions on the prospects so they know what holes need to be filled via trade or FA. I also think Mac needs to go and a proven manager with experience developing talent and guiding emerging teams needs to be hired.

If this rebuild goes into 2020 or beyond, I think Klentak will be on thin ice.

[zambonir]

As defined by the poll, 2020. But I think "contending" is 84-86 wins and 2019 should still be doable there.

[phillychuck]

2030 or so. Seriously, we can't seem to build a roster at all. It's seriously depressing.

[Austinfan]

I see them at .500 next year, I thought they might get there this year but once again they're jinxed (last year Morton, this year Kendrick and Buchholtz and Nola out of the gate).
It's a long season, there are bad stretches and good stretches.
I expect them to bounce back at some point.
But over the next two years, between the players in the system, a couple judicious trades and a couple FA signings, they should field a very good team in 2019 and have a bunch of talented young pitchers.
Remember when we gave up on Floyd and Gio Gonzalez?

[zambonir]

I am all for Negadelphianism but what's going on now is extreme underchievement, just like last year was a bit of overachievement. With pitching, defense and a few breaks/surprises, you don't have to have a team of stars. They are not there right now, but they are not that far away with few additions and a few things breaking the right way (Herrera comes around, Joseph or Hoskins work out). And if it's still a mostly young homegrown team next year that will be fun to watch, there won't be any placeholders next year, whereas this year there are as many as 4-5 (be they the FAs or the internal guys).

[bkeich]

I guess what I am seeing is we are all still saying at least 2 more years (with a few exceptions). I think the problem I see is that if we had this poll a year ago it would have just been a year less (i.e. still 2 years away). We have no rookies this year that are significant contributors (Stassi and Knapp are not really considered part of the future). Altherr has certainly improved, but other guys are regressing even faster.

The franchise itself is not really making progress towards contention, or at least it is very slow. In the other thread the discussion became "who on the current roster are you worried about losing". Well, that is true, but it kinda proves the point that we arent really rebuilding as much as generating players in hopes that lightning strikes and they turn into a contending team. If the ownership is going to continue to turn a $80M profit and just keep the extra money they made from Comcast then we are stuck in a loop, and they have shown no indication they are willing to get quality FAs (nor will Quality FAs consider coming here as long as we have a bottom 5 record). These FAs could help us progress or be rolled over for ML ready players, but at the moment we are getting nothing from all the spare cash except slightly richer owners.

Yes,it could be seen as impatience, but I am a patient person. It is just looking forward and not seeing progress,for every player coming up we are going to lose one and they arent necessarily better. This was the Montreal Expos.

I think I am still annoyed by the "we are spending the money on analytics" statement last year, I hate it when people insult my intelligence (a few million on analytics does not answer why we arent spending all of this cash).

[Austinfan]

We spent $60M on veterans we hoped to flip.
It's very hard getting value for a top money FA, for one thing, no one wants to trade for their "out years."
You sign big money veterans AFTER you've turned the corner, when you've become an attractive destination, and you don't have to grossly overpay for a mercenary (not good for team chemistry) but someone who wants to win.

[Philsmania]

Considering that it's a five year plan that started after the 2014 season, I too stick with 2019. I think the fact that the Phillies are going through an exceptionally bad stretch at present is skewing perspectives a bit. Plus, these things don't always progress in a linear manner with steady improvement each season. For example, look at the Phillies last five year plan which started in 1997 and ended with the Phillies in contention in 2001 and began a stretch when they at least contended every season with the exception of 2002 and 2004 through 2011. Clear forward progress in late '97, '98 and the first four months of '99 followed by a stunning regression in late '99 and all of 2000 but yet contenders on schedule in 2001.

And, let us bear in mind that the 2017 season is only 25% over. Talk of a lost season for rebuild purposes may be premature.

[bkeich]

This is funny to read now.... PC called it (compete in 2030)

[Jeff05]

I'm afraid the joke escapes me, bkeich. Happy New Year! If the Phillies pick up Realmuto, then I believe they will make the play-offs in 2021. The bullpen won't be as bad this year . . . it can't . . . surely?!

[zambonir]

They contended with our loyalty!

[bkeich]

Unfortunately, returning with Realmuto would just be having the same basic team as last year, one year older, probably without the abnormally good health we had last year. I can’t see them as contenders that way, but I hope I am wrong.

[Austinfan]

They can compete this year, but it requires a lot of thing to go right:
1) Howard establishes himself as the #4 SP and gives them 150 IP
2) Kingery rebounds
3) Bohm is for real for a full season (actually a pretty good bet, his hitting isn't a fluke)
4) Haseley takes a step up (I've given up on Quinn and his long swing)
5) They have a league average bullpen (regression to the mean provides hope)

Whether they resign JT or use his money for 2-3 players, probably end up with similar value, say a SS and a #5SP and a RP. There's just so much value they can buy, taking a step up requires some young players stepping forward.

[Jeff05]

The offence was sound, last year. While we may not replace Gregorius' bat, others may step up. Yeah, I know, too many 'mays'! I'm not as concerned about the age of the offence - with the exception of McCutchen, the other confirmed bats are still in or nearing their peak years.

McCutchen and Kingery are the wild cards for me. Cutch is 34 this year. After an injury-affected start to the season, his offensive numbers improved steadily as 2020 progressed. If the first two weeks of the season are excluded, then from Aug 18 to Sep 27, he had an OPS of .829. I wouldn't bet on that being sustained next year nor him being injury-free. However, I am 'hopeful' that he won't experience a huge drop-off in offence.

I am not as 'hopeful' regarding Kingery. He's 27 in 2021 and, ordinarily, we could anticipate some improvement. A healthy Kingery, i.e., capable of repeating his 2019 production, may largely fill the offensive hole left by Gregorius. However, Jim Peyton over at PhuturePhillies has remarked a few times about the severity of Kingery's bout of COVID-19 and the longevity of the side-effects. Maybe I should just hope that he eventually makes a full recovery, rather than expect that he will contribute significantly in 2021. I hope I'm wrong, too.

[andyb]

I picked 2019 back then. That answer SHOULD have been correct. We all knew that was the year we were going to add a big free agent like Harper. They had enough talent then that SHOULD have developed but did not for various reasons. They also made signings (Santana) and trades (Segura) after 2017 that arguably moved the team backwards. And clearly there were growing pains in implementing all the analytics that cost them a game or two.

They should have been able to compete in 2019. We finally have moved on from the people in charge who failed to do that.

[allentown]

They should have been able to compete in 2019. We finally have moved on from the people in charge who failed to do that.

Yes, we should have done better in 2019. We should have done MUCH better in 2020. We have a new manager (not a big help in 2020, however his pitching staff had a lot of holes) and a new President. Most of the others from 2019 remain, although many in likely far reduced capacity. Big difference from 2019: the checkbook has slammed shut. Ownership seems to be hewing to the Commissioner's line, while other teams sprint forward to win this year. We are not as good a team as we were in 2019.

I can see a bounce for Kingery, especially if he gets to own 2B. I'm not nearly as optimistic on Howard. Shoulder injuries worry me. His most IP was 112, back in 2018. He managed only 70 in 2019 -- all as a starter in those years. He just hasn't been healthy.

I'm also not counting on a lot from Cutch.

I don't know what return to the mean even means for the Phillies bullpen. The guy they traded for also has shoulder woes, so I'm not counting on him. A lot of new faces and a lot of guys who have never done it in MLB plus guys we will hope return to help, plus, I'm sure a lot more AAAA tryouts. What is the mean for such a group?

[zambonir]

Ownership seems to be hewing to the Commissioner's line,

Ownership is hewing to ownership's line. He works for them. Even the biggest-money teams have been unified in preparing for the next labor war and treating the tax as hard cap these past few years, and they are clearly unified about how they define "losing money" due to COVID. The Padres aren't really springing forward, they just had such a low payroll to begin with (a mere $75 million in 2019) due to all their good young players that they can spend now. And even Steve Cohen seems to have tempered his ambitions.

It is certainly foolish of the Phillies to do this given the nature of their roster, as opposed to the Astros or Cubs, who can rest on their championship, or the Rays, who are terminally broke and do it every year. Given the purported revenue limitations that are clearly going to continue this year, and then the likely lockout, I'm not sure how Middleton can feel confident in ever watching a playoff series with Nola and Wheeler on the mound (though I suppose the eight-team format may never go away now).